Nigerian government rather nonchalantly a fortnight ago, told the nation that it would not be possible to meet the target of six thousand megawatts promised against this month. Nobody could be surprised.
Eight months ago when the promise of six thousand megawatts was made, it was predicted in this column that the idea of improved power supply in the country by this month was an illusion, since past experiences were there to guide us. It is bad enough that the promised target was not met and it is worse that power supply today is worse than it was eight months ago.
Equally, the Niger Delta problem is virtually in a stalemate contrary to the Federal Government’s promise to implement the Ledum Mittee report almost unabridged. The tactlessness with which that official promise was made was similarly highlighted in this column eight months ago.

With fuel scarcity unabated, oil workers threatened last week to embark on strike. Such industrial action would only worsen inadequate power supply in the country.
It is, therefore, appropriate to recall this sad prospect as predicted in this column last April. Read on, as published on Friday April 10, 2009:
Anytime we decide to go lacklustre, there is this penchant to throw to the public a deliberate diversion which in most cases, serves the intended purpose as Nigerians especially those cringing for government attention jump in and over-echo the diversion.

The government on its part, after initially savouring some relief from public pressure, soon assumes far worse public image of incompetence or indecisiveness.
Obviously, hopes were raised when eventually the Niger Delta summit took off. In a way, it helped in curbing the excesses of the militants. The hopes even rose higher when the report of the summit (containing far-reaching recommendations) was submitted to President Umaru Yar’Adua. He might have, perhaps had prior knowledge of some of the recommendations. But like the historic Aburi agreement before the outbreak of the civil war, did Yar’Adua, in the case of the Niger Delta Summit, realize the implications of the recommendations?

When receiving the report of the Niger Delta Summit, the standard practice in a brief response, (and the only sensible thing to promise) is that government would study the recommendations. Instead, Yar’Adua seemed to issue a blank cheque to the Niger Deltans that the government would “implement” the recommendations. So assertive and unqualified was the commitment on implementing the summit report.

Many months after, either owing to other pressing problems or because the recommendations are too far reaching to be implemented in totality with the risk of modifying if not dropping very hot aspects and thereby upset Niger Deltans, today, government is under pressure to honour its promise.
While the waiting goes on, the same Federal Government has now offered amnesty to the militants in Niger Delta, which by the way should be seen as a good development. Unfortunately, instead of embracing the amnesty, the supposed beneficiaries rebuffed the gesture and made it conditional on implementation of the Niger Delta Summit report.
Such vacillation and diversionary tactics were also noticed under the Olusegun Obasanjo regime. When plotting his abortive third term regime, he declared on the country the bogus war on corruption. Today, Nigerians know who really are corrupt. When the same Obasanjo plotted the rigging of 2007 elections, he sold the dummy of first successful civilian to civilian hand-over. The chorus was deafening.

Right now, Nigerians are choked every time on television screens with echoes of seven-point agenda. While the agenda is yet to take off or the substance understood, there is the sudden conscious effort to assuage Nigerians on the seemingly permanent national power blackout with the promise of six thousand megawatts by December this year.
The government is obviously trying its best but it is wrong, very very wrong and potentially self-discrediting to reduce the power problem to ordinary arithmetic of multiplication.

When Yar’Adua came two years ago, without any prompting, he promised to declare state of emergency in the power sector. Nigerians never knew what that involved and today, nobody knows if the emergency was declared. Whichever is the case, most parts of Nigeria today have less than four hours’ power supply in a day.
There, therefore, might be a case to be seen or heard to be doing something. Even, that will not justify this unqualified commitment to provide six thousand megawatts within six months. If, however, the commitment is aimed as a tick on the seven-point agenda, that is fine.

Does Yar’Adua know Nigeria, its problems or even Nigerians as a people? Does Yar’Adua know what powerful cartel is firmly entrenched against ordinary improved power supply in Nigeria?
If he knows, how prepared is he to take on that cartel? If Yar’Adua is prepared for the showdown, then, it is poor war tactics to openly display his preparations. Does he think the cartel of importers of generators would fold their arms and allow him to increase power supply by some five thousand megawatts from the present bare one thousand?
It is of course arguable if he should not be seen to be doing something but Umaru Yar’Adua should have learnt the lesson from Obasanjo’s experience. The late Bola Ige, as Power Minister promised regular supply within two years. Instead, saboteurs within and outside defunct NEP A frustrated him.

Almighty Obasanjo misassessed Bola Ige as incompetent and therefore commandeered the power ministry to his personal control at Aso Rock for the next six or seven years. Still, Obasanjo could not attain four thousand megawatts or whatever he achieved could not last six months uninterrupted.
And now Nigerians are being assured of six-thousand megawatts within eight months? Of course, Yar’Adua may know what we don’t know. If only he can succeed because we would be happier than himself.

What is very important is not just the figure of six thousand megawatts but sustaining that level of power supply. And that is where his enemies are formidable - importers of power generators. How many of them? There are also the manufacturers and assemblers of power generators. How many different brands are imported? Nigeria is about the major dumping ground for this essential commodity.
Time there was when ownership of a power generating set was a status symbol. With virtually no power supply, almost every poor home (not just house) has one. With millions of such homes, there are millions of power generators almost next to oxygen for survival in this country.
It is pointless quantifying the cost in cash. With the drastic fall in oil revenue, it is not clear which is higher between our oil revenue dependence and the huge amount on generator imports. Those assumed to be the wretched these days boast of their mobile generating set to show that “I am better my than my neighbour.” A capacity of under two KVAs guarantee that status to supply light and blow the fan.

When the cost of such imports is assessed at billions of dollars, power generating business, next to oil, is the leading thriving business. Government’s task is to confront those involved in the business. Their tactics is to sabotage government effort by com-promising government agencies - power holding or not even at port or border control. There are also the vandals employed to destroy cables, or collaborators disrupting supply of gas to thermal stations for one convenient reason or another.

• This column takes a few weeks’ break