This is the question Senator David Mark, President of the Senate and all those around him would not want asked. But it is a question that will continue to agitate the minds of Senators and the generality of Nigerians until the appellate court decides his fate in the coming months.

But even at that, Senators have began to discuss in hush tones the fate of their leader. However, none of them is prepared to discuss the issue openly in the media, even though nuctornal meetings are going on to devise various means of confronting the threat to Mark’s seat.

While those who are interested in his seat are already reaching out, those in the camp of the Senate President are also not relenting in their plans to ensure that even if their benefactor loses his seat, the position should not leave their camp. Interestingly, anytime the race is declared open, only Senators from the North-Central zone would be eligible to contest.

Virtually all the six States in the North-Central, with the exception of Kogi State, have at one time or the other produced a principal officer either in the Senate or House of Representatives. For instance, Kwara State once produced the czar of Ilorin politics Oloye Abubakar Olusola Saraki, as deputy Senate leader, while Plateau had produced the immediate past deputy Senate President, Senator Nasir Ibrahim Mantu.
Nasarawa State it produced late Haruna Abubakar who was the first deputy Senate President at the inception of the nascent democracy in 1999, while Niger once produced a deputy Speaker in the person of Senator Idris Kuta, and the Chief Whip of the House, Honourable Bawa Bwari.

Benue has had the largest share. And even in Benue the Idoma people have been the luckiest. The State had produced Senators Iyorchia Ayu and Ameh Ebute, and today it has Senator David Mark.
But Kogi is yet to record any fortune from the largesse of politicking. At the moment, two Senators from the State - Smart Adeyemi and Nicholas Ugbane - may likely show interest. If religion and closeness to Mark is one factor to be considered in choosing a successor, Adeyemi stands a better chance ahead of Ugbane. Adeyemi, it would be recalled, was one of the new Senators that stuck his neck out for Mark during the build up to the Senate Presidency election, at a time that not many wanted to be seen around his house at night. But if the issue of ranking is taken seriously, Adeyemi would have to take the back seat. Ugbane may not be too close to the Mark’s camp, but he is one man that can play ball and so would not mind having a Mark as godfather.

For Kwara, if the politics of turn-by-turn is anything to go by, the other two Senators would not be eligible to aspire, since the daughter of the godfather of Ilorin politics, Senator Gbemi Saraki is a potential contender. Besides, the other two Senators are hardly visible on the floor of the upper chamber, as one can easily count the number of times they made valuable contributions on the floor of the Senate in the past five years.

Although Gbemi too could be regarded as a ‘truant’ on the floor, her valuable contributions cannot be ignored each time she was at plenary. But from the mood of the Senate at the moment, it is not certain if it is ready to have a lady preside over its affairs.
From Niger State, one man who would have gotten the seat, probably on a platter of gold, is Senator Nuhu Aliyu. As it stands for now, his rating before his colleagues has nose-dived. He has to do a lot of work to gain back the confidence of his colleagues. It is either he comes out loud and clear to name the 419ners in the Senate and the House or forget the race.

However, Dahiru Awaisu Kuta, also from Niger State, appears to have a better chance. The only snag is that he, like Aliyu, is not close to the Mark’s camp. But unlike Aliyu, Kuta is one man that could be wooed into the Mark’s camp, especially as politics is about interest.
However, apart from the issue of religion, which may be used to edge out Muslims, Mark and his group are not likely to be comfortable with a successor from Minna. This is so because the ‘big masquarade’ from Minna – IBB - and Mark are no longer best of friends.

While Mark sees him (IBB) as working against his interest in the army in the period preceding the Abacha era, IBB on the other hand sees Mark as one of those that constituted a road block to his return to power in 2007, through Mark’s support for the contagious third term project. Interestingly, to think about the seat is the last thing that would ever cross the mind of the third Senator from Niger State, Senator Zainab Kure.

Apart from Senator Abubakar Sodangi, no other Senator from Nasarawa State for now has the temerity and clout to want to eye the Senate Presidency seat. Sodangi is close to Mark. He is one of those that chaired the ‘juicy’ committee. He chairs the Senate committee on F.C.T. Apart from the religion factor; he is a strong contender any time, any day. He is in the Senate for record third time.

Like Nasarawa, Plateau has only two PDP Senators. They are Senators John Shagaya and Gyang Dantong. But these names are not likely to feature whenever the issue of the Senate Presidency seat is discussed. Only recently, Shagaya lost the chairmanship of the powerful and influential 58 member Northern Senators’ Forum (NSF) to the young Turks in the Senate, most of whom are now with Mark.

For Benue State, if Mark leaves, no Senator from the Senate for now can succeed him. Reason: The other two Senators, Geroge Akume and Joseph Akaagerger belong to a different camp from that of Mark in the Senate, and Mark cannot be politically naïve to allow his Tiv brothers take over from him, especially given the popular belief that his Tiv brothers are part of those plotting day and night to pull him down.
All said and done, as the situation stands today, Mark is undoubtedly in firm control of the Senate. It goes without saying, therefore, that his group would largely determine who successeds him, in the even that he is required to step aside.