The ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is on the rampage. And only a miracle or an uncommon political engineering by the opposition can stop it. From Kogi in North central zone to Adamawa in the North Eastern zone, the party has defied all odds, internal squabbles, opposition’s alliances and also demolished the theory of ‘politician’s stronghold’. For the PDP, it has been all smiles as it turned obvious political adversities into incredible advantage, reducing the opposition to near neophytes in the power game.

And the question is: could what we have seen so far be the true picture of things to come? For the opposition, this represents a dreary prospect nobody would want to contemplate but for the PDP, it is an unstoppable moving train. The wait, therefore, for the re-run gubernatorial elections in Sokoto and Bayelsa states, would either confirm or debunk the theory that the PDP is set to keep its ‘original’ states.

LIKE KOGI, LIKE ADAMAWA
When the Court of Appeal affirmed the ruling of the state election tribunals in both states and ordered a re-run of the gubernatorial election on the ground of unlawful exclusion of some candidates, many Nigerians saw it as a opportunity for thye opposition party to make a fundamental statement and at least expose the ‘weakness’ of the PDP in the states.

In Kogi, all eyes were on the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and in Adamawa it was the Action Congress (AC). The March 29, 2008 re-run in Kogi State was by all standard remarkable and a litmus test for Alhaji Ibrahim Idris of the PDP and Prince Abubakar Audu of the ANPP. Both were former governors of the state. It was a chance of a lifetime to either lift their political profile or sink with it; a chance to test their much-touted popularity.
And in Adamawa, it was also a clash of titans. While on the surface it was supposed to be a straight fight between Murtala Nyako and Ibrahim Bapetel of PDP and AC respectively, it was obvious that political elephants were going to war in the state.
In fairness to all parties in the contest in both states, the parties worked round the clock to earn the votes of the people.

But while in Kogi, Acting governoe, Clarence Olafemi made it clear that he was prepared to return his party back to Lord Lugard House, in Adamawa, it was a little different as only a timely intervention by the national headquarters of the PDP saved the state from falling into the hand of the opposition.
One thing that stood out was a kind of proper preparation by all the parties. The leadership of the PDP seriously prepared for the re-run and mobilised its leaders within and outside the North-Central geo-political zone to Kogi State for the election.

The same thing happened in the case of the ANPP/AC for Kogi State.
The size of the rivals’war chests also played a crucial role in the election. It was gathered that while the PDP had an enormous war chest at its disposal, the ANPP/AC accord relied heavily on funds provided by Audu. The ANPP candidate, having deployed huge resources to the case that he won at the tribunal since its beginning last year, was said to have also spent much money at the inception of the coalition and the electioneering campaign. In fact, he was said to be the sole financier of the election and as such, the funds available to the party could not compare with that of the PDP, which had streams of funds from different quarters.

INEFFECTIVE ALLIANCE
The AC/ANPP coalition, which was the climax of weeks of negotiation between the political camps of Audu and the erstwhile AC governorship candidate, Ahmed Ohiare, on the one hand and the zonal and national leadership of the parties on the other hand, however, failed to stop the PDP from reoccupying the Lugard House, Lokoja Government House. In spite of the coalition’s claims of superiority, the Independent National Electoral Commission said Idris won the majority of valid votes in 19 of the 21 local government areas of Kogi. The result of one of the local government councils was disqualified.

According to the breakdown of the votes announced by the INEC Resident Electoral Commissioner for Kogi State, Mr Rufus Adakeja, Idris polled a total of 518,581 votes to emerge victorious in the election while Audu polled a total of 175,978 votes to place second. In the April 14, 2007 election that was nullified by the tribunal, Idris had polled a total of 724,839 votes as against AC candidate, Ohiare’s 304,335.
Based on the outcome of last year’s election and the alliance that was believed to have been sealed by the leaders of the AC, ANPP and the Movement for the Restoration and Defence of Democracy, many people had anticipated a very close margin, especially since the AC and the ANPP would be combining their strength and resources. But the reverse was the case. Whereas it was common knowledge that the election suffered some irregularities and violence, it was clear that none of the parties involved had a monopoly of vices.

Some observers contended that the coalition was more of an alliance of strange bedfellows. Many politicians, who had had it rough with Audu during his four years as governor, from 1999-2003, were also involved in the coalition through either the AC or the MRDD. This, in some cases reduced the commitment of many politicians to the coalition.

But others said that the re-run election was a trial for the coalition, adding that it was a signal that something bigger could come from the two parties in the nearest future, if the relationship was well managed.
But PDP chieftains in Kogi dismissed the claim saying that there was no way it could have posed any threat to the PDP. A leader of the PDP in the state, Senator Smart Adeyemi (Kogi West), said the coalition overrated its ability. He advised its leaders to apologise to the people for lying about the true picture, adding that the AC and the ANPP did not command the kind of followership and acceptability its leaders claimed. According to him, “The PDP is still the people’s choice. They only raised a false alarm about their preparedness and acceptability to the people.”

PDP national publicity secretary, Professor Rufai Alkali, put it succinctly thus:
"Initially, the ANPP protested against exclusion but now we have proven our might democratically,'' he said.
But observers say many things were wrong with the alliance, adding that the outcome of the election was a reflection of the state of the coalition. It was gathered that the coalition failed to take cognisance of the dynamics of Kogi politics, which lays much emphasis on zonal arrangements.

For instance, the central senatorial district was said to have felt sidelined in the arrangement that placed its son as a running mate. It was learnt that the area was not comfortable with the arrangement where both the ANPP and the AC zoned the deputy governorship position to the central zone. Having made a futile effort to convince the AC to zone its governorship ticket to Kogi Central, the people of the area considered it more politically expedient to support the PDP, which they felt had a better chance. This, it was learnt, accounted for the dismal performance of the coalition in the central district.
National chairman of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Prince Vincent Ogbulafor said that the re-election is a confirmation that Governor Idris actually won the April 14, 2007 governorship polls that was annulled by the tribunal.

In Adamawa verbal contest preceded the real ballot. Nyako had boasted: “I actually won the last election. I was not the one who said the AC’s candidate name should be removed. Even at that, his name was still featured in the ballot paper. What I know is that the PDP is very popular in the state. We are very much on ground and I can assure you that there is nothing to worry about. Let me tell you that if elections are held 10 times in this state and with the support I am enjoying from my people, In sha Allah, I have nothing to fear.”
Bapetel, on the other hand, said Nyako would not return to the Government House, Yola. Bapetel, who was a commissioner for finance and Secretary to the State Government, said the election would put everybody where he belonged in the state. He said: “I am in the election to claim my mandate, which was stolen last year. The people of the state know about my popularity and I can assure you that the AC will coast home in victory in the election. We have asked our supporters not to allow any rigging. They have been asked to defend their votes very well. We will not allow anybody to intimidate us and we are going to monitor the election very well.”

He also expressed confidence that Abubakar’s clout as well as the support of other notable members of the AC would ensure victory for the party. The Conference of Nigerian Political Parties had directed other political parties in the state to vote for Bapetel.
But the PDP coasted home to victory. Dr Abdul Bulama, the Resident Electoral Commissioner in the state, who was also the Returning Officer, declared that PDP won in all the 21 local governments of the state. Nyako beat other 11 contestants by polling 361,729 votes. His closest rival, Bapetel, scored 201,767. Joel Madaki of the Labour Party (LP) came third with 7,360 votes.

ALL EYES ON SOKOTO, BAYELSA
After Kogi and Adamawa, all eyes are now focused on Sokoto and Bayelsa States. Many political analysts are of the view that if the PDP can retain Adamawa of all states, given the stature and clout of formder president Atiku Abubakar, there is no other state that can pose any serious problem to the party across the federation again.

The implication of this trend is what many politicians in the opposition parties do not want to contemplate – the likelihood of the emergence of a one party state. But to prevent such a situation, the opposition must get together in a manner that means real business of an alliance with all the demands for full commitment to making it work. It is obvious that as long as there are 10, 11 or 12 parties vying for a particular office, the PDP will always beat the rest parties silly.