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The odds against Vision
2020
By Sun News Publishing
Monday, April 28, 2008
With only 12 years to go, there is no strong indication on
the ground to suggest that the country is on the threshold
of realizing its goal of being among the world’s 20
strongest economies by the year 2020, as encapsulated in its
“Vision 2020” agenda.
The general despondency and heightened pessimism are pointers
to the fact that the goal might, after all, end up as a mere
dream. Available development indices are signaling and confirming
the doubts of many stakeholders on the viability of the dream
project.
Nigeria’s present per capita income, which stood at
$1,500 per annum coupled with our low economic growth rate,
which is yet to reach 13 per cent, does not in any way suggest
that we could ever get there.
The odds against achieving the envisioned economic goal are
as many as they are formidable. We are presently found wanting
in every parameter and indices of economic development from
agriculture to technology and from health to education. We
operate an import-dependent economy where crude oil accounts
for over 80 per cent of our export. We are yet to tap the
magic of micro-finance and small and medium scale enterprises
as the engine room of the economy.
Economic experts have projected that for us to reach the target,
the nation’s per capita income must increase beyond
$10,000 per annum with an annual economic growth rate of between
10 and 15 percent. Presently, that remains a tall dream because
more than 70 percent of the nation’s population lives
below the poverty line at less than one US Dollar per day.
Socio-economic indices on the ground that appear to undermine
this grand lofty dream include, among many others, the epileptic
power supply, which has literally turned every manufacturer
and producer of goods and services in the country into an
independent power producer, political instability, subsistence
agriculture, a mono-economy, general insecurity and dilapidated
social infrastructure.
It is not in doubt that Vision 2020 is a grand agenda by
the Federal Government to guide its development plans between
now and the year 2020. The 13-year plan is expected to usher
in the industrial and socio-economic transformation that would
make Nigeria join the league of the 20 most industrialized
countries in the world.
But unfortunately, the country is not near its set goal. We
are indeed not adequately prepared for it. The necessary mix
between the public and the private sector to jump-start the
economy is virtually absent. And the power component for industrial
take-off is abysmally low. Knowledge-wise, we are not yet
prepared for the take-off. The government’s economic
pronouncements are more of fine catch phrases that do not
really solve any problem.
They are only fanciful pronouncements on where we want to
be. The matter is not even helped by the level of corruption
in the land. We are still bogged down by unconscionable sleaze
in high places and that alone is a big drawback on our industrial
march. Official corruption has invariably increased the time
and cost of doing business in Nigeria.
These economic vices negate our resolve to be among the 20
most industrialized nations by 2020. Our budget implementation,
especially in the area of capital expenditure, is nothing
to write home about. Without faithful implementation of the
budget, there is no way the economy will witness the expected
economic growth.
If we really want to get there, we must match action with
precepts. The nation must also take indices of development
and match them with action to achieve our set goal. And if
care is not taken, it is unlikely that we would achieve anything
near that goal. To pull Nigeria away from its present economic
quagmire requires creative and qualitative leadership. Mere
sloganeering, no matter how grand, cannot take us to the Promised
Land.
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