In exactly 22 days, Nigerians will go to the polls to elect the president of the federal republic and members of the National Assembly. Yes, February 16, 2019, is a date Nigerians will, through their votes, select the man who will be at the driver’s seat of government as president and those who would make laws for good governance, as they say. It is a day when voters would decide whether they want continuity/retention of the status quo or a change of guard at the Presidency. It is an important day in the country’s democracy.
In the elections, much is at stake. Going by the calibre of people who are the top runners in the presidential race and the expectations, the stakes are high. Projections have been made on the chances of the contestants. The candidates are making promises. The contestants and their political parties are making allegations and counter-allegations against one another. And Nigerians are being wooed with promises. Indeed, tension and anxiety have put many Nigerians on edge.
What is clear about everything happening in the political arena is that the elections are about the future of the country. Nigerians are going to make a choice either to make/secure their future or blow it, since the candidates who will emerge victorious in the elections will, by their decisions and actions in government in the next four years, starting from May 29, 2019, make or mar the progress of the country. The elections should, therefore, not be about political parties. It should not be a battle between the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), for example. In the presidential race, it is rather a contest between President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC and former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the PDP as individuals.
The elections should be about personalities and candidates, as there is no difference between the APC and the PDP. The two political parties have no clear ideology. Membership of the political parties is not ideology-anchored. The political parties are the same in orientation and behaviour. They are two faces of the same coin. Their members defect from APC to PDP and from PDP to APC, as they wish. When political parties do not believe in anything tangible, the election would, therefore, be about personalities and their pedigree. That way, people are elected based on what they have done, can do and the “content of their character” (apologies, Martin Luther King Jr.).
In the presidential election, the choice before Nigeria is very clear. Nigerians would choose between perception and reality. They would make a choice between sentiment and conviction. They will choose between the continuation of the old order and the beginning of a new era. They will choose between what is and what would be. As they make up their minds on whom to vote for, what is obvious is that certain things are going to shape the elections. The Buhari government would be on trial. Nigerians would examine what the government has done or has not done, juxtapose it with what was promised and then make a verdict. Nigerians would also look at the prospects, gains and minuses of Buhari continuing in office. They would look at what Atiku is promising, where he is coming from, and his driving force.
The election is basically a referendum on Buhari as a person and his government as an institution. In assessing Buhari, therefore, Nigerians will look, most likely, at five key areas: Security, economy, transparency/accountability, Buhari’s health/state of mind and national cohesion. Transparency/accountability will be about the fight against corruption and conduct of those in government in relation to due process, integrity and fiscal discipline. National cohesion would be about the relationship among Nigerians, irrespective of tribe, tongue and religion.
During the electioneering of 2015, President Buhari made security one of his cardinal programmes. On assumption of office, he reiterated his resolve to make Nigeria safe. Coming at a time when Boko Haram waxed strong, Nigerians looked forward to delivery of the government’s promise. Those in the North East were expectant, being tired of the menace of insurgents. More than three and half years down the line, North East residents cannot confidently say all is well. Initially, there was progress in the fight against insurgents. The military sustained its onslaught against Boko Haram and actually displaced the terrorist group from key areas, leading to government’s declaration that Boko Haram had been technically defeated.
However, in recent times, security in the North East has relapsed. The resurgence of insurgency has stretched the military to the limit, to the extent that heavy casualties are being recorded. Military formations are being attacked by Boko Haram. Military convoys are ambushed. Villages have been attacked and overrun in the North East. The situation is so bad that Governor Kashim Shettima of Borno State wept when he led elders of the state to plead for President Buhari’s intervention.
In other states in the North, bandits are on the prowl. At present, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina and other northern states are under serious attack. In these states, people are kidnapped, killed or maimed easily. To show how bad it is, Governor Abdul’aziz Abubakar Yari of Zamfara State personally called for a state of emergency in his state, offering to step down, if it would help solve the problem. Katsina State governor, Alhaji Aminu Masari, could not pretend when he declared that the state was under siege. There is a sense of insecurity in these states.
With this, the promise on security has not been fulfilled. The Buhari government made efforts, but the efforts have turned out not to be good enough. If Boko Haram, an organisation supposedly “technically defeated,” could start running riot, there is something wrong. If bandits are on the rampage in some states and governors are raising the alarm, there is certainly cause to worry.
Is there hope that the situation would improve in the nearest future and the government would win the war? Perhaps! However, if the judgement is based on what is on ground at present, and not expectations, it is obvious that security is still a major issue.
The United States President who declared, “it’s the economy, stupid!” was only underlining the importance of the economy to a nation. Nigerians know that the state of the economy is a major issue, as it affects all facets of life. Under Buhari, much has happened in the economy. Government is making more money from taxes and tariffs, but hapless citizens are bearing the brunt. The Buhari government increased the price of petrol to N145. Although there was no protest or demonstration when this happened, the hike is taking a toll on Nigerians. It has had a spiral effect on many things, including transportation. Surprisingly, despite the hike in the price of fuel, the Buhari government is still paying subsidy to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), the sole importer of fuel. The hike in fuel price and the continued payment of subsidy are, indeed, a contradiction. President Buhari and the APC, then the opposition political party, condemned similar actions by the previous government. Now in government, they do it without blinking.
To show the bad state of the economy, companies are having hard times. Indeed, many industries and companies have shut down. People have lost jobs and the unemployment figure has gone very high.
If the performance on security and economy are, therefore, to determine who Nigerians would vote for, Buhari would have a hard time.
To be continued next week