THE elections that would usher in a new government in 2019 is still several months away, specifically, the elections would hold on February 16, 2019 for the Presidential and National Assembly elections while the governorship and states’ House of Assembly elections will hold on March 2. Thus by next year, there definitely would be heightened activities as those aspiring for different positions would remove the veil to declare their ambition.
Though in politics, a week is a long time, recent developments have indicated what to expect. There is no doubt that there would be new alignments and realignments, but one thing is quite clear, the gloves are gradually coming off. The present political office holders and the presidency would discover that things are no longer where they had left it.
The easy path of President Mohammadu Buhari (PMB) to Aso rock which saw him unseating an incumbent president, he and his supporters would realize, would not be as easy. Recent developments have shown that the coalition that brought him to power is shredded. The bottom seems to have been taken out of that coalition. Most of those who worked for the coalition and the success of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2015 elections are disenchanted with the administration, for one reason or the other. Some of the ideals that led to overwhelming support for PMB have not been realized.
Prior to those elections, issues had been raised against the person of President Buhari. He had been described as arrogant, a religious fundamentalist, anti-south and whatever you would. All these were debunked in carefully orchestrated propaganda machinery that blurred the lines between truth and blatant falsehood. The social media was put to good use at the time. I remembered, by God, I remembered that candidate Buhari was described as a fundamentalist. His accusers, who have today been dubbed wailers, cited his statement to late Oyo state governor, Lam Adesina in October 2000 when he led a delegation made up of former Lagos governor, Gen Buba Marwa, members of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) scores of Hausa /Fulani herdsmen in several trailers to Oyo state to protest the alleged killing of herdsmen and cattle that had decimated some farmlands in Saki, Oyo state to which the Saki people had retaliated.
He wanted to know why the governor had not dealt with the ‘culprits’ who had killed his people. He accused the governor of complicity in the killing. He wanted compensation for the killings or there would be vengeance across the country. Are Fulani herdsmen not on the rampage today, killing people at will and disappearing without trace. Not even a whimper from the presidency.
“General Buhari whose arrival to the Secretariat complex was preceded by scores of lorry loads of Hausa men and boys said pointedly at the executive council chambers of Oyo State that his team came to meet the governor to seek reasons why the people of Saki should not be dealt with for killing Fulani herdsmen. He did not stop at that, Gen Buhari accused Governor Lam Adesina of complicity in the killings and using his position as governor to pervert justice”, according to Kehinde Olaoshebikan, the late governor’s Chief Press Secretary at the time.
But when election came, we were told differently. We were told General Buhari was not an ethnic bigot as many had believed. We were told of his detribalized nature, of how he had people from different parts of the country, especially the south as close, personal staff. We were told his driver of several years was from the south, his cook, etc. We were sold what many people have now described as a dummy, about his being a democrat. But the wools are off the eyes. The eyes are today widely opened. The reality is starring us all in the face. If President Buhari had not won the election, we would have further deified him, that the country had lost a golden opportunity to change its fortune.
His appointments have shown his preference for people from his clan. The Buhari who had pledged himself to us and who we believed belongs to nobody clearly belongs to some people. He has been captured by some people who determine what must be done, who he must see and must not see. The government takes time on issues affecting acolytes of the president. Minister of State, Petroleum, Dr Ibe Kachikwu raised issues of corporate governance in the NNPC. That the leadership of NNPC of Dr Maikanti Baru made some lopsided appointments in the corporation without following due process, nothing has happened. He also said he was shielded from seeing the president. Nobody has been punished for that, we do not even know who had appropriated the president and shielded Kachikwu from seeing him.
The matter has not been addressed. Nigerians also raised the matter of Abba Kyari as a member of NNPC board and his position as Chief of Staff, not a word had been said. The allegations against former Secretary to the Federal Government (SGF), Babachir Lawal in which a panel headed by the Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo was set up, is still pending, months after the panel had submitted his report. Some of us warned that nothing would come of that matter- SGF and NNPC, that they would be swept under the carpet. Isn’t that what is playing out now?
There had also been other allegations of corruption against some people in government; they had not been investigated unlike members of the opposition party. Nigerians are wiser today. The river is gradually ebbing and the fish would soon start gasping, as it had failed to retreat with the waters. Now, only death awaits it.
Chief Bisi Akande, former Osun governor, former interim chairman of APC and a staunch loyalist of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu gave a snippet of what to expect in the build up to 2019. He said Buhari had not informed the party of his desire to contest for a second term, therefore the space is opened for anybody that is interested in the presidency, irrespective of his or her zone. It is a pointer to what we have always known that those who gave Buhari support in 2015 have removed the support. We have seen that Asiwaju (Bola Tinubu) who made Buhari presidency possible has withdrawn his support.
Buhari had contested elections on four different occasions before the Tinubu intervention made his fifth attempt possible. Reminds me of the Yoruba adage, the river that forgets its source, dries up. The overwhelming support of 2015 is drying up. It is even being speculated that Tinubu is planning to contest, that he is tired of being a kingmaker; he wants to be a king. Why not. He has the credentials that is better than most of the previous office holders. He also has something going for him apart from his sagacity- his ability to identify a winner, a performer as the Lagos examples have shown since the 1999.
Back to President Buhari, I want to wager that he would not be presenting himself for a second term. His actions have shown that he does not need the likes of the people who propped him to power, that is why he could embark on the process of alienating all these supporters, while overly relying on straw soldiers who would not deliver their wards. Well, time will tell.