Olakunle Olafioye
Until 2015 when the former governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu took his mastery of the game beyond the fringe of regional politics with the emergence of President Muhammadu Buhari, two Nigerian leaders dominated the conversation on the nation’s political landscape in the last three decades. At all the crossroads in Nigeria‘s political life, General Ibrahim Babangida (retd) has played a prominent role. In 1993 when he stepped aside following the annulment of the June 12, 1993, presidential election won by the late Moshood Abiola, Nigerians thought the gap-toothed retired general had been finally retired. But when democracy was restored in 1999, the name of IBB again bestrode the political arena like a colossus. Apart from the claim that he was behind the formation of two registered political parties then, IBB’s political deftness was more apparent in the Peoples Democratic Party, where he was believed to have aided the emergence of former President Olusegun Obasanjo at the party’s convention held in Jos.
After serving two terms as the President of Nigeria between 1999 and 2017, Obasanjo assumed the role of the next kingmaker. Those who earlier doubted his dexterity in the nation’s political landscape were made to eat their words as OBJ did not only determine his own successor in 2007, he equally decided his successor’s successor. Both the late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and the former President Goodluck Jonathan owe their emergence as presidents of the country between 2007 and 2015 to the retired general.
As the 2019 elections draw nearer, IBB and OBJ appear unrelenting in their craft about who rules and who will not rule Nigeria next. Reports have it that Babangida and General TY Danjuma had a meeting which lasted over two hours in Minna, Niger State, penultimate Friday. Although the outcome of the meeting was not made public, Sunday Sun reliably gathered that the meeting centred on how to stop President Muhammadu Buhari in 2019.
Not a few analysts have expressed divergent opinions on the propriety or otherwise of the retired generals’ opposition to Buhari’s second term ambition.
The ‘Operation Stop Buhari in 2019’ appears to have gained more currency with Obasanjo and IBB in the last few months with a former Chief of Army Staff and former Minister of Defence, General Theophilus Danjuma, joining the fray a couple of weeks ago. Obasanjo had stunned the whole nation with an open letter reminiscent of Jonathan’s days when he warned the president against seeking re-election in 2019.
Obasanjo in the letter had asked President Buhari not to seek re-election in 2019, accusing him of nepotism and lacking an understanding of the “dynamics of internal politics.”
The letter was a sharp volte-face by Obasanjo who until then was a known supporter of the president and had supported Buhari’s ascension against former President Goodluck Jonathan, to the country’s top post.
Babangida also slammed the Buhari with his vituperative letter. Unlike Obasanjo’s, Babangida’s letter was drowned in a controversy bordering on the authenticity of its author. An open letter credited to the former military ruler, had circulated widely in the media for several hours on Sunday, February 4, 2018 before a counter statement denying IBB’s authorship of the letter surfaced hours later.
Babangida, in the first letter, signed by his spokesman, Kassim Afegbua, had asked President Muhammadu Buhari to leave office in 2019, for a new generation of leaders to move Nigeria to a digital age.
IBB, in the purported statement, said that although Buhari has the constitutional right to vote and be voted for, he maintained that there always comes a time when one needs to sacrifice one’s personal interest for the national interest.
Hours later, the former military president in a counter statement, distributed by a media distribution agency, PR Nigeria, dismissed the content of the letter, which asked Buhari not to seek re-election in 2019.
IBB described the content of the first letter as a personal view of his media aide, adding that he has unrestricted access to Buhari, and does not need any sensational public correspondence to channel his views.
But Babangida’s media aide insisted that the first letter, in which the former military president was quoted asking Buhari to go in 2019, was authentic. The dust generated by IBB’s letter had barely settled when Danjuma fired yet another salvo against the government. Alleging ethnic cleansing agenda and complicity by the military, he called on residents of Taraba State to defend themselves against killer herdsmen.
Expectedly, Danjuma’s outburst has continued to generate reactions with many expressing surprise that such comment could emanate from a former army chief and defense minister. The federal government and the military have equally described the call as inflammatory and capable of emboldening criminal gangs. But not a few are of the opinion that Danjuma’s comment is a true reflection of the situation in the affected states.
A retired military officer, Col Gabriel Ajayi, who described the former Chief of Army Staff as a man not known for frivolity, said the statement credited to him should be taken with seriousness. “By the pedigree of General Danjuma, he holds the reputation of a no-nonsense man. He was my Chief of Army Staff. I remember vividly in 1978, he visited us while we were on a course at the Nigerian Military School of Infantry. And he forthrightly told us that if he, as our Chief of Army Staff asked us to do anything unethical that we should disobey him. So he is a very forthright person. He is not a frivolous man; he would not speak without having concrete proof and evidence. So if people of Danjuma’s pedigree are saying something as serious as that, it is not for the military to immediately reply and begin to debunk the claims. What they need to do is to look inwards and see what has gone wrong,” the retired military officer advised.
Professor Abiodun Michael Oni, Head, Political Science Department, Babcock University, Ogun State, opined that the stance of the retired general might be far from being altruistic. “It is difficult to understand what the objectives of the retired generals are. But I think the problem is that they (retired generals) are aggrieved that Buhari is not doing things to their advantage and I think they are out to make sure they replace him with somebody they can easily manipulate. Their objective is strictly in their own interest and not in the interest of the nation,” he opined.
Oni pointed out that while it may be difficult for anybody to fix the nation in four years, he said seeking an immediate replacement for Buhari may not bring an instant solution to the nation’s problem. “At personal level, I would want the president to continue. Nobody can fix Nigeria in four years. The level of corruption, the level of decadence in the country is so pervasive and it will be difficult for an individual to fix it in four years. More so, one cannot even do it if he is surrounded by people who have selfish interest. So seeking to replace him with somebody else will also come with its own problems,” he said.
On his part, the National Chairman, Arewa United Forum, Alhaji Ado Shuaibu Dansudu, said the position of the retired generals calling on Buhari not to seek reelection next year is not only in the interest of the nation but also in the interest of the president. According to him, the president should heed the call in deference to his age, which he opined might not be able to withstand the rigour of electioneering.
“They all know themselves very well. And it is possible they are privy to certain information concerning how the country is being run. Also, we should not lose sight of the fact that democracy guarantees freedom of expression, provided it will not cause problem. The only area I am not comfortable with is Danjuma’s statement. I think his position to the problem in some states in the country is condemnable. Such statement shouldn’t be heard from an elder statesman like him,”
“Having said that, the call on President Buhari not to run in 2019 should not be taken as an expression of hatred, rather Buhari should take it as a sign of love. A good son should be able to tell his father when the old man needs to rest because of his age even if the father does not seem to see the need to quit. Buhari must by now know that the coming elections will be more tasking compared to that of 2015. So, IBB and Obasanjo telling Buhari to go and rest should not be taken as a sign of hatred.
“Buhari has really tried his best but because of his age, he should leave the stage for others who still have the vigour and strength to face the challenges of governing a complicated country like Nigeria,” Dansudu said.
A political analyst and former presidential aspirant, Dr. John Kennedy Osuala, said the retired generals should be commended for their courage and patriotism to speak out with a view of saving the nation from further damage.
“IBB, Obasanjo and Danjuma are patriotic leaders who are concerned about the state of the nation. They cannot afford to keep quiet and allow the situation to degenerate further. As fathers of the nation, they consider it necessary to rouse the conscience of the nation by speaking out. So, I think they should be commended,” Osuala posited.
Long before going public with their opposition to Buhari’s reelection, rumour of a clandestine plot to stop Buhari in 2019 was rife. A group, Democratic Youth Congress, had at a forum in Lafia, Nassarawa State, accused three past leaders of conspiracy against Buhari’s second term.
The national chairman of the group, Kassim Mohammed Kassim, had alleged that the trio of IBB, OBJ and Abdulsalam Abubakar had begun a search for Buhari’s successor saying they were not comfortable with the president’s fight against corruption.
Speaking under the aegis of The Democratic Youth Congress, Kassim accused the past leaders, notably Obasanjo, Babangida and former head of state, Abdulsalami Abubakar, of not being comfortable with Buhari’s stance towards corruption.
The national chairman of the group, who is also a member of the Nasarawa State House of Assembly representing Akwanga South, said such a move was not only “an act of betrayal,” but “arson against the collective wishes of the Nigerian people.”
He explained that the search smirked of “hypocrisy and intent to cause political disharmony in the polity.”
“What have Obasanjo, Babangida and Abdulsalam Abubakar bequeathed to this country as leaders, if not corruption, nepotism, underdevelopment and values laced with mutual distrust and suspicion which have further compounded our journey to prosperity as a nation,” he opined.
With the race for the 2019 elections drawing closer, nothing appears certain other than the inevitably mounting intensity of political arm-twisting and power game among major political gladiators.