By Fred Itua, Abuja
Despite the ravaging global COVID-19 pandemic, politics was at its best in 2020 across the world. For the first time in almost 30 years, a sitting United States president lost a re-election bid. The United Kingdom finally exited the European Union. Ghana re-elected its president for another term of four years. Many other countries were engaged in one political assignment or the other. Nigeria was not exempted. Two state governorship elections were held, while inter-party and intra-party palaver dominated the political space.
With 2021 just beginning, there are clear signs that more political activities and party squabbles may still take the centre stage. With 2023 general elections barely two years away, zoning by the two dominant political parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), will be addressed.
In the National Assembly, housing the Senate and the House of Representatives, more fireworks are expected. Though there has been relative peace since the inauguration of the two chambers in June 2019, that may change in the coming months, with key political actors positioning themselves ahead of 2023. Across the political divide, more defections are expected to happen. For pundits and keen observers, 2021 will be a precursor of what to expect in the political realm in 2023.
Political uncertainty
Like in other spheres of life, it is often impossible to accurately predict the outcome of any political event. With President Muhammadu Buhari almost halfway into his four-year second tenure, it is unclear if there will be a cabinet reshuffle. Though political actors are hoping that there will be a major policy shift in 2021, there are concerns that the Buhari administration may continue with the same template.
There are also fears that the foreign exchange crisis may worsen in 2021. In 2020, the naira-to-dollar exchange rate was over N500. Many observers believe that almost every sector of the economy was affected. With the country still battling another wave of COVID-19, recession and dwindling revenue, it is unclear if the humongous 2021 budget will be fully implemented.
There are concerns over the inability of the Federal Government to pay salaries of civil servants as and when due. If recession persists, pundits believe, Nigerians may have to prepare for a long walk to freedom in 2021. Again, if the price of crude oil tumbles in the international market, the already fragile economy may be affected further.
In his Christmas message to Nigerians, former President Olusegun Obasanjo lamented the insecurity and poor economic state of the country. He urged Nigerians to pray and work harder, while not dismissing the challenges ahead in 2021.
He said: “We do not have to blame God for our situation, we have to blame ourselves. Nigeria does not have to be poor, no Nigerian must go to bed hungry. That we have a situation like this is a choice of our leaders and followers alike. My prayer is that God will make 2021 a better year for all of us, but it will not happen without work.
“We have gone from one form of insecurity to bad economy and on the top of it is the COVID-19. Some people, either for insecurity or for bad economy or for COVID-19, have gone to the great beyond. I will say may the souls of those who have departed, particularly in this year of challenges, rest in perfect peace.”
Zoning controversy
Nigeria is divided into six geopolitical zones. Though these demarcations are unknown to law, they have created a balance in the polity. However, for the purpose of presidential elections, it is usually between North and South. This practice has been loosely maintained since 1999. With President Buhari quitting in 2023, there are controversies on whether or not the presidency should move to the South.
While the ruling APC has revealed that the issue will be resolved and a position taken by the party in 2021, the PDP, on the other hand, has kept a loud silence. It has deliberately refused to speak on the issue to allay fears expressed by members of the party from the South. It has also refused to dismiss claims that the presidency will be zoned to the North in 2023.
A former governor of Benue State and now a senator, Gabriel Suswam, in an interview with our correspondent, said the PDP will retain the position in the North until the region produces a President. The leadership of the party didn’t counter his claims.
He said: “The PDP will maintain zoning. We have not realised it, so the zoning still remains in the North in the PDP. In PDP, we zoned the presidency to the North and have we realised it? No. So the zoning still remains in the North for 2023. Presidency is not micro zoned. Once you say North, every person in the North is entitled to contest and the best person wins.”
Minister of Labour and Employment, Chris Ngige, has said that the founding fathers of APC will speak on zoning in 2021. The minister said those still in the party will speak up at the right time to clear the air on whether or not there was a zoning agreement on the 2023 presidential ticket.
He said: “Nine of us are still in the APC. I can’t speak on the issue now. Most of us agreed that we are going to speak in 2021— from (Bola) Tinubu to Chief (Bisi) Akande, Chief Olusegun Osoba, myself, Tom Ikimi, Yusuf Ali, Ogbonnaya Onu, Danjuma Goje and Senator Wamakko. We will speak in 2021 after we would have done the APC caucus meeting on it. Caucus will agree that we speak on it publicly.”
Fireworks in National Assembly
The 9th National Assembly, has so far been on the same page with President Buhari. Almost every request from the Buhari-led Executive Arm has so far been approved by Ahmad Lawan-led Senate and Femi Gbajabiamila-led House of Representatives. For instance, Bukola Saraki-led National Assembly in 2016, rejected plans by the Buhari administration to borrow $30 billion. Despite the blackmail that followed, the 8th National Assembly didn’t cave in.
That, however, changed when Lawan took over. His usual mantra that the Parliament will be on the same page with Buhari has reflected on every issue or request made by the President. So far, almost every nominee had been confirmed. Criticism of the President is seldom permitted by Lawan on the floor of the Senate.
The honeymoon, political observers believe, may soon end in 2021. Their argument is hinged on a number of reasons. They believe that the Buhari administration has not reciprocated the good gesture of the Parliament and has continued to flout every resolution passed so far. For instance, the recruitment of over 700,000 Nigerian artisans, which the National Assembly ordered to be suspended, was ignored by Buhari. The Parliament has repeatedly called for the sack of the service chiefs and Buhari has shunned them. All the resolutions taken on security have not been executed by Buhari. Still, the Parliament has remained adamant in taking its pound of flesh.
With the 2023 general election drawing near, senators and members of the House of Representatives are expected to take extreme positions and may move against Lawan, who, many believe, has made the Senate an appendage of the Executive. With repeated delays in the payment of salaries and other entitlements of lawmakers, 2021 may not be business as usual between the two arms of government. There are also fears that plans are underway to remove Lawan, if issues raised by senators about their welfare are not addressed.
Beside the aforementioned, the planned consideration and passage of two controversial bills, Electoral Act Amendment and the Petroleum Industry Bill, are expected to generate mixed reactions. Already, the two chambers have concluded plans to ‘smuggle’ certain clauses into the planned amendment of the Electoral Act. Meanwhile, they are ambiguous and have refused to define the scope of the planned amendments. For instance, they are silent on electronic transmission of results during elections.
Insisting that the amendments must reflect the wishes of the people, civil society organisations like Yiaga Africa, Centre for Liberty, NESSACTION, Raising New Voices, and Millennials Active Citizenship Advocacy Africa, are demanding that some drastic changes must be made. The proposed six demands they want included in the Electoral Amendment Bill are General Election in One Day; Full Biometrics for Accreditation and Electronic Transmission of Votes; Pre-Election Matters Appeal; Women and Disability Inclusion; and Ad Hoc Delegates Elections (Timing & Tenure).
With the Electoral Amendment Bill expected to be passed in the first quarter of 2021, it is unclear if the National Assembly which has already conducted a public hearing will accommodate some of the demands made by the various coalitions.
More defections
In late 2020, Governor David Umahi of Ebonyi State set the ball rolling when he announced his defection from the PDP to the APC. Citing the refusal of the PDP to define where it stands on the issue of zoning, Umahi said the Igbo will be better off with the APC taking over the South East in 2023.
Umahi’s defection, many believe, is a pointer to more inter-party movements that will happen in 2021 and in the coming months leading to the 2023 general elections. In the Senate and House of Representatives, lawmakers’ defections will soon start rolling. With many of the lawmakers already serving for than two terms, there are chances that their political parties may deny them a return ticket in 2023.
This reoccuring decimal is expected to kick off soon. In the Senate, Elijah Abbo from Adamawa State has already defected to the APC, making him the first in the 9th Senate. In 2021, more defections are expected. Governors too may signal their desire to defect. The same blues are expected to echo in the various Houses of Assembly across the country.