By Wilfred Eya
To say that politics in Nigeria is slippery is an understatement. The game is indeed difficult to define in this clime. It is, ‘the more you look, the less you see’. And for the players, it appears practically impossible to determine their intentions. Many of the actors believe that the end justifies the means and what matters is how their interests are protected in the chess game.
The picture above captures the Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal’s rejection of the outcome of the agreement he hitherto entered for a Northern consensus presidential candidate on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) ahead of the 2023 general elections. Those who formed the alliance for the project include the former Senate President, Bukola Saraki, Governors of Bauchi and Sokoto states, Bala Mohammed, Aminu Tambuwal and Mohammed Hayatu-deen. Even though analysts who understand the dynamics of Nigerian politics were skeptical ab initio about the possibility of the quartet achieving an easy consensus exercise, many hoped the move, if well handled, would have achieved a lot of mileage for the PDP in next month’s party primaries and subsequently at the general elections next year.
Surprisingly, despite the rapprochement among the aspirants before the recommendations of the Northern elders, Tambuwal immediately rejected the process that produced Saraki and Bala Mohammed as the Northern consensus candidates of the PDP.
Governor Tambuwal, in a statement by his campaign office, said the arrangement had failed and that he was now prepared for a primary election.
“For the avoidance of doubt, Gov Tambuwal has submitted his Presidential nomination forms and now that the quest for a consensus candidate out of the four has clearly collapsed, will go ahead and face screening and indeed contest the PDP presidential primaries,” his campaign office wrote.
But since his rejection of the exercise, the question on the lips of many is why did the Sokoto governor who was part of the process from Day One, not accept the outcome of the consensus arrangement. The questions keep coming: was it because he was not selected; if he was selected, would he have rejected the outcome? If he was selected, could he not have expected other aspirants to support him, and must he be the only one to have emerged from the exercise after all?
While Tambuwal would have expected to be the consensus candidate of the North, some political observers believe he could not have emerged in a choice among Saraki, Bala Mohammed and Hayatu-Deen Mohammed. Many critical observers are in agreement that part of what worked against Tambuwal is that he is of the North West, the same zone with President Buhari who is just about completing eight years in office. Also, Sokoto State has produced President Shehu Shangri. In their estimation, even if the Northern region would retain the presidency in 2023, the candidate would most likely not be of the same zone with the outgoing president. Besides, Tambuwal is not seen to have particularly done well as a governor.
The celebrated consensus effort took the aspirants to all parts of the North and their message was only one item which was to agree on a consensus PDP candidate for the Northern region. They had agreed that whoever emerged among them would be supported by the other three aspirants.
While Tambuwal was consulting across the country, he committed a blunder in his analysis that only a Northerner can win the presidential election owing to population. Political pundits said his analysis was capable of alienating the South, which could feel insulted that a presidential aspirant does not see its votes as significant.
Despite Tambuwal’s outburst, many observers, especially those sympathetic to the Northern cause, saw the consensus exercise, which has produced Bala Mohammed and Saraki as commendable and a huge sacrifice for the love of country and the Northern region in particular by the four aspirants.
The four aspirant who subjected themselves to the consensus arrangement first met in Bauchi on March 20, 2022, and announced that they were working together to put forward just one of them to contest for the office of president, instead of having all of them, battling for the same post.
The PDP consensus quartet took their message for unity and sacrifice to all key stakeholders in the party and they visited all the other 11 governors who are members of the PDP to explain their mission to them. To ensure that their initiative was not seen as a gang-up against any other aspirant, they equally visited former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who is vying for the Presidency but not part of the move. They also visited aspirants from the other zones, like Gov Nyesom Wike and Gov Emmanuel Udom.
In the process leading to the consensus exercise, the quartet visited the former military president, Gen Ibrahim Babangida and gave him the mandate to lead the move for a consensus candidate and agreed to abide by the outcome of the decision. The former president encouraged the aspirants to have a resolve within themselves and come up with one candidate, which they reported back to him after some days and asked him to go ahead and pick one out of the four.
General Babangida, on his part opted for inclusion, through wider consultations and assigned one of the elder statesmen in the North, Prof Ango Abdullahi, to design some criteria and carry out the necessary consultations with elders and leaders across the three geopolitical zones of the North.
In the full report signed by Abdullahi, the process was conducted in three stages below.
Candidates Assessment
In the first phase, according to the report, the opinions of six distinguished persons each from the three geopolitical zones were sought with regards to the four aspirants and each of the zonal delegates was allocated two votes to choose the first and second choice making a total of 36 votes overall. A breakdown of the outcome of that consultation shows that Tambuwal scored seven votes, Bala Mohammed 10 and 10 too for Saraki while Hayatu-deen got five votes.
However, one of the elders deferred his votes on grounds of continuing consultations with traditional rulers and other major stakeholders and two members did not cast their second ballots, thus bringing the total to 32 votes cast out of 36. From this stage, it went to:
Phase 2: Zonal Assessment
This phase involved opinion based on regions which was concluded as follows: North Central(Eight), North East(Seven) North West (Two) while one was still under consultation.
The last is phase 3 titled PDP previous experiences. In this stage, resort was made to the historical antecedents of the opposition party with regards to previous Northern aspirations and the following conclusion was reached:
That the North West has had the opportunity of contesting and even forming government in 2007 and that in 2011, a consensus was made among the four Northern candidates, which North East got the slot but lost at the primaries. In 2019, the same North East got the slot again though in the PDP but could not form the government.
The report also noted that the North Central had not had a single opportunity to get the PDP ticket since the inception of the current Fourth republic.
Based on the above factors, the elders led by Gen Babangida recommended that a leading aspirant from the North Central and one from the North East were to be presented as Northern presidential candidates; and
that the two would in turn be required to make further concessions so that in the end, one of them would be presented as the consensus candidate, out of the four aspirants.
The conclusion was that Gov Mohammad from the North East and former Senate President, Bukola Saraki from the North Central be presented as the Northern consensus candidates for the moment.
They were however urged to work together to make allowance for further consultations to foster understanding among themselves, and the PDP community to ensure a rancour-free primaries in which all eligible candidates would be free to exercise their rights.
The elders commended the spirit of sportsmanship and statesmanship exhibited throughout the exercise by all those involved and urged their continuous cooperation and team work to ensure victory for the party.
Before the recommendations were made, Saraki who was the spokesman of the consensus advocates had repeatedly mentioned that all the four of them in the group were qualified to provide effective leadership and good governance for the nation. He said they believed that “the national interest and cohesion within the party were more important than individual ambition”, and added that what he and his colleagues started was worthy of emulation as consensus building was needed at a critical time when the nation is troubled like now.
Bala Mohammed revealed the inside story of consensus
Sen Bala Mohammed Presidential Campaign Organization, Prof Udenta O. Udenta in a statement after the exercise had thanked the elders for doing a thorough job and for finding their principal worthy to be selected in the consensus exercise.
He noted that Gen Babangida neither approached nor lobbied anybody to superintend the process that led to the emergence of a consensus presidential aspirant but that they collectively, freely and willingly approached him to help select from amongst themselves the aspirant. The four aspirants including Mohammed, he said not only initiated the consensus arrangement on their own volition but also agreed to fully and unequivocally abide by the decision that Babangida would arrive at in consultation with other elders as well as accept and honour the steps and procedures he would deploy in arriving at any decision.
The Bala Campaign organization rejected the current insinuations in the media from some quarters that purport that Babangida and the elders either did not consult very widely or imposed a decision on an unwilling band of presidential aspirants.
The organization said Babangida and elders deserved nothing but commendation for the conclusions they reached and the outcome of the consensus exercise by anybody who believes in the tenets of truth, honour and integrity.
It said “the consensus arrangement was not designed as an end in itself but a means to an end; not as a goal with a limited regional vision or appeal but a first in a series of processes and exercises aimed at building inclusiveness, harmony and unity within the ranks of the presidential aspirants in the PDP.”
It noted that the participants in the process toured the whole country and reached out to critical political stakeholders in the party, including its elected governors, to explain the meaning and purpose of the arrangement and to seek a buy in into the process if possible.
The organization commended the South East presidential aspirants to have also acceded to the model and wished them success in their current endeavors in this regard.
But beyond the recommendations of the Babangida-led team, critical observers also believe that some other factors worked in favour of Saraki and Bala Mohammed.
What favoured Saraki
Saraki has a rich resume having been the governor of Kwara State for eight years and been at the Senate for another eight years including becoming the president of the Red chamber, when the legislature held the Executive arm of government accountable. Many believe that he has garnered a lot of experience as well as built enough contacts nationwide to lead a complex nation like Nigeria. All those are in addition to the fact that his geo-political zone is also yet to produce the president of the country since 1999 when Nigeria embraced democracy after the fall of the Third republic. That he is from Kwara State, which has a fusion of Yoruba and Hausa/Fulani, makes him a bridge between the North and the South.
Factors that helped Bala Mohammed
The Bauchi governor has rich credentials that place him in a good position apart from the fact that his zone, the North East, is yet to produce the president since 1999. Prior to becoming governor of Bauchi, he was Minister of Federal Capital Territory (FCT) from 2010 to 2015; and a Senator between 2007 and 2010. He also has a high network of contacts across the country.
The final battle
As political observers see having two consensus candidates from one zone as odd, it is believed that more compromises would be made for a sole consensus candidate. The Northern elders are expecting that Saraki and Bala Mohammed should agree among them who will step down. The sentiment that is however growing is that since Bauchi State has the option of seeking second term as governor, he could make the sacrifice of stepping down for Saraki. There has to be something from the Saraki camp for such concession.
Consensus efforts in the past
In 2011, the North made efforts to have a consensus candidate in the presidential primary of the PDP. After the exercise, Atiku emerged as the consensus candidate of the North. There were issues as other aspirants rejected the verdict. In the primary of the PDP, Atiku lost to then President Goodluck Jonathan. He defected to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), where he emerged as presidential candidate. Atiku lost the election to Jonathan.