It’s no longer news that the national leader of the All Progressives Congress, APC, His Excellency Senator Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu has vowed not to leave any stone unturned to actualize his age-long dream of becoming the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in 2023. Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State from 1999 to 2007 has grown his political structures to one of the biggest in modern day Nigeria.
Tinubu has a firm grip of the structures of Southwest Nigeria as his disciples are visible in all the states as governors, heads of agencies, party leaders, among others. The Vice President, Prof Yemi Osibanjo and several ministers in the Buhari-led Federal Government are his disciples. Even in the northern part of Nigeria, Tinubu is a household name. This is the extent to which Asiwaju’s structures are visible. If anyone is to be feared as an intimidating force in the 2023 general elections, that person is Asiwaju.
So when Tinubu declared his intention to run for office of the president, everyone knew the eagle has taken off and it will definitely soar very high.
However, there are many rivers Mr Tinubu will have to cross. First, many Nigerians, especially the younger generation, from all nooks and crannies are calling on Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, a disciple of Tinubu, to contest the 2023 presidential election. Over 10 groups in their thousands have launched their campaign for the vice president to join the presidential race. Their belief is that Prof Osinbajo has credibly carried out his responsibility as vice president to President Muhammadu Buhari and should be allowed to take over. If Osinbajo picks the nomination form, this will definitely split the Tinubu camp.
Another river is that of health. Nigerians are complaining that Tinubu’s health is not as strong as what is needed by a digital president in a country like Nigeria. There was a time the social media was ignited with pictures of Mr Tinubu wetting his clothing during an event. Even though Mr Tinubu has dismissed the claims as false, the excuse he gave that he is running for the presidency and not a marathon race didn’t go down well with some Nigerians. The state of health of a president and his age has a lot to do with his ability to govern.
Then comes the third river which is the issue of moral justification. Asiwaju and Osinbajo are from the Southwest region of Nigeria. Between 1999 and 2023, the Southwest has held sway in the presidency for 16 years. General Matthew Aremu Olusegun Obasanjo was president for eight years and Prof Yemi Osinbajo, SAN, has been vice president for another eight years. If the South is agitating for power shift, what moral justification does the Southwest have to be hell-bent on being the part of the region of the South to produce the president? The Southeast has never produced the president nor the vice, the South-south has done it for six years under Goodluck Jonathan while the Southwest has had 16 good years of Obasanjo and Osinbajo.
It is often said that he who comes to equity must come with clean hands. If the presidency will be going to the southern part of Nigeria on the basis of zoning, Bola Ahmed Tinubu should rather be seen as the projector in chief of a fair play. The failure of Tinubu to speak for other regions of the South such as the Southeast that has not benefitted from the presidency since the return of democracy in 1999 will make him appear to be a self-centered person. This will give Mr Tinubu a big moral burden.
Nigerians will not want to produce a self-centered politician as their president in 2023. So, Tinubu will definitely have the duty of convincing other parts of the country on while his Southwest region should get another shot at the presidency when other regions in the South with eminently qualified candidates should not.
As activities for the APC primary elections are gearing up, if Bola Tinubu will be coming up for president, he will definitely face challenges from his inner house, his health and the moral justification for a Yoruba president when the Southeast is yet to produce one.
• Martin Iorsamber is the Convener, Movement for Advancement and Peaceful Nigeria