From Fred Itua, Abuja
One year to the conduct of the general elections, senators elected on the platform of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Young Progressives Party (YPP), are at loggerheads with their state governors.
The seeming political battle, Daily Sun has reliably gathered, is centred on plans by the embattled lawmakers to return to the Senate in 2023.
Some of the senators, who are ranking members of the upper chamber, currently represent Senatorial Districts of their governors and many of the state chief executives, who are serving out their second terms in office, want to replace the embattled lawmakers in the Senate.
Among the six geopolitical zones, South East appears to be the region that may lose about 80 per cent of its current senators in 2023. While some of the outgoing senators are nursing other political ambitions, others will be replaced by their governors.
One of the senators who will be affected in 2023, said plans by their governors to replace them, informed their decision to yank off indirect primaries from the existing Electoral Act.
He said with direct primaries, lawmakers will have a fighting chance and win their parties’ primaries, adding that with indirect primaries, governors will determine the delegates to vote during the exercises.
Regions to be affected
South East
South East has five states with each of them producing three senators and cumulatively, it has 15 senators, out of 109 in the country, making it the region with the least number of lawmakers in Nigeria.
In Abia for instance, Senators Enyinnaya Abaribe and Theodore Orji, are not returning to the upper legislative chamber of the National Assembly. While Abaribe plans to succeed the current governor, Okezie Ikpeazu, Orji is retiring from active politics. The current Chief Whip of the Senate, Orji Uzor Kalu, maybe the only serving senator from Abia State to return in 2023.
In Anambra, the three senators, Ifeanyi Ubah, Stella Oduah and Uche Ekwunife, may lose their re-election bids. Ubah hails from Anambra South, where the incoming governor of the State, Charles Soludo, hails from. There are fears that All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), may win the District in 2023. Ubah is a member of YPP.
Oduah is serving out her second term in office. Last year, ahead of the governorship election in the state, she dumped the PDP and defected to the APC. Her new party lost the election. There are strong indications that this maybe her last outing as a senator.
Ekwunife, who represents Anambra Central, may also face a stiff opposition from her party, the PDP and her biggest nightmare, Victor Umeh of APGA in 2023. She may also lose her re-election bid.
Former Deputy President of the Senate, Ike Ekweremadu, Chukwuka Utazi and Chimaroke Nnamani, all from Enugu State, may not return to the Senate.
While Ekweremadu has said he won’t vie for another term, having spent about 20 years in the Senate, Utazi on the other hand, is likely to be replaced by his governor, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi. Nnamani’s overt interest in who succeeds the governor may also cost him his re-election to the Senate in 2023.
In Ebonyi, the three senators are at loggerheads with the governor, David Umahi. Though a member of the ruling APC, Umahi is expected to give the three senators who are PDP members a tough battle. If the governor succeeds in entrenching the APC in the state, he would naturally replace the the three senators with members of his party but the reverse would be the case if he fails to upstage the PDP in the state.
In Imo State, Rochas Okorocha, who many believe has lost out in the control of the state structure of APC, is not likely to be re-elected for another term in the Senate. The battle between him and Governor Hope Uzodimma has reduced his influence in the state chapter of the party and nobody is sure of how far he can go in his presidential ambition.
Though in politics, anything is possible but the permutation is that about 70-80 per cent of the current senators from the South East, may not return in 2023.
South South
The South South geopolitical zone is made of six states; three senators per state and 18 for the entire zone. About 90 per cent of the current senators from the zone are members of the PDP.
In Akwa Ibom, barring unforeseen circumstances, two out of the three senators may not return. While Senator Bassey Akpan will be affected over his plan to succeed the current governor, Christopher Ekpenyong, a former deputy governor, will be affected by age and is not likely to seek a reelection. In that case, only Senator Akon Eyakenyi may return.
In Cross River, the three senators may not return. They’re currently battling to succeed the governor of the state, Ben Ayade. If they continue in their bid, fresh lawmakers may replace them in 2023.
In Delta State, the three senators may also not return. Peter Nwaoboshi maybe replaced by his governor, Ifeanyi Okowa. James Manager who has spent almost 20 years in the Senate, will likely be replaced by a former governor, Emmanuel Uduaghan.
Current Deputy President of the Senate, Oviedo Omo-Agege, won’t return as well if he decides to pursue his governorship bid on the platform of APC.
The three senators from Edo may not return, going by the existing political arrangements in the state. Since 1999, senators from Edo have only served for two terms. If that arrangement is sustained in 2023, Clifford Ordia, Francis Alimikhena and Matthew Urhoghide will not be re-elected.
The fates of senators from Bayelsa and Rivers State, are still hanging in the balance.
South West
The power-play and political situation in South West is still too unstable for political pundits to predict what the outcome will be in 2023.
Beside Ekiti and Oyo States, where some of the senators may not return, the fates of others are unclear.
North Central
Philip Aduda who represents the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), is expected to face a stiff opposition from his party, the PDP and the opposition APC. He’s seeking another term in 2023.
In Niger, the current Deputy Chief Whip of the Senate, Sabi Abdullahi, may not be re-elected. In 2019, he narrowly survived a rejection by his constituents. The fate of the other two senators are unknown.
In Kogi, Smart Adeyemi who is serving out his third term in the Senate, maybe booted out in 2023. There are claims that the governor, Yahaya Bello, is planning to replace him. The fate of the other two senators are unclear.
Plateau State may have a new crop of senators, drawn from the APC and the PDP in 2023. Simon Lalong, the governor, is expected to run for the Senate. The other two slots maybe challenged by fresh candidates.
In Nasarawa, a former governor, Adamu Abdullahi, is not seeking another term as a result of old age. If Tanko Almakura is elected national chairman of APC, his seat will be vacant too.
In Kwara, the three senatorial seats held by APC members, will be fiercely challenged by Bukola Saraki-led PDP. It is too early to predict how events will turn out.
North West
The major political upsets in North West, are expected in Kano, Kaduna and Katsina. Danjuma Laah, who represents Kaduna South and serving out his second term, will be challenged and maybe replaced by a new member.
The three senators from Kano State, may not return. Kabiru Gaya and Jibrin Barau, are contending to succeed the current governor, Abdullahi Ganduje. They may not return to the Senate. Senator Ibrahim Shekarau’s ongoing battle with Ganduje, may cost him his re-election bid.
Muhammadu Buhari’s senator, Ahmad Baba Kaita, gunning for the governorship position, may not return to the upper legislative chamber in 2023. There may also be political upsets in Zamfara, Sokoto, Kebbi and Jigawa states.
North East
Major political upsets are expected in Adamawa, Taraba, Gombe and Bauchi states. Clifford Abbo from Adamawa State, who recently defected to the APC, has lost control of the structure of the party in his domain.
In Taraba, current Deputy Minority Leader in the Senate, Emmanuel Bwacha, is not returning. He recently defected to the APC, ahead of his declaration for the governorship position in 2023. The fate of the other senators are unclear.
Former governor of Gombe State, Danjuma Goje, who has lost control of APC structure in the state, has revealed that he won’t seek another term in 2023.
A major upset is expected in Bauchi, Yobe and Borno ahead of the general elections in 2023, where key players are expected to challenge the current occupiers of the seats.