By Sunday Ani
Many appear to be the afflictions of the main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), particularly since after it jettisoned its traditional zoning arrangement, and threw the presidential primary election open to all the zones in the country.
For close watchers of political developments in the country, since that singular incident, the party appears to have been wobbling and oscillating from one problem to the other, with the latest being the alleged move by about six governors on the party’s platform to work against the presidential ambition of its candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, as well as the purported demand by the Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike’s camp that the national chairman of the party, Iyorcha Ayu, should be removed and replaced with a southerner.
If the rumours that Governors Wike of Rivers State, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State, Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State, Samuel Ortom of Benue, Seyi Makinde of Oyo and Darius Ishaku of Taraba states, are aggrieved with the party’s presidential candidate, and have resolved to work against him are anything to go by, then the party is certainly on its way to repeat history. Those that are conversant with Nigeria’s political history recall that just as it happened in 2014, few months to the 2015 presidential elections, when some five aggrieved PDP governors formed what was then known as the ‘new PDP’ following the discontentment from the 2014 convention that produced former President Goodluck Jonathan as the party’s presidential candidate, this time, about six governors are again allegedly up in arms against the party’s presidential candidate. It is just that this time, the aggrieved governors may not take the extreme step of forming a parallel party, but the anger, like in 2014, is similar; the fallout of the party’s presidential primary.
In addition to that, Wike’s camp is calling for the removal of the national chairman so that the party can elect a new one from the southern part of the country. Their argument is that Ayu’s removal was necessary to address the lopsidedness in the party’s hierarchy. Information from a close source revealed that Atiku appears to be urging Ayu to stay on until after the elections next year.
Those angling for Ayu’s removal said before he became the national chairman, the party leaders agreed that he would resign and make way for a southern substitute if a northern presidential candidate eventually emerged.
“Now that Atiku Abubakar, a northerner, has emerged as the presidential candidate of the party, it is only normal that the agreement which the party leaders reached before Ayu was made the chairman is respected. Even, when Atiku visited Wike shortly after he won the primary, the Rivers Governor reminded him about the need to ask Ayu to step down. Now, they want Ayu to remain till after the election so that if Atiku loses, they will say it is unnecessary for Ayu to leave and continue the brazen marginalization of the South in the party. It will not work again,” a source stated
According to close watchers of development in the party, an indication of impending crisis emerged on Wednesday last week when two associates of the Rivers Governor, the Benue State Governor, Samuel Ortom; and the former Governor of Ekiti State, Ayo Fayose, publicly expressed their reluctance to back Atiku’s presidential bid in the 2023 general election.
Ortom was quoted to have said that he was still awaiting God’s direction on his decision on the issue, promising that if at the end of the day, he gets a message from God to support Atiku, he would obey but if otherwise, he would not challenge his God. Fayose on the other hand, is insisting that power must shift to the South. He even went a step further to declare that Wike would not support Atiku.
It is believed in some quarters that what is happening in the main opposition party now is not different from what the party went through before the 2015 general election. In 2014, the then ruling PDP, which was boasting that it would rule Nigeria for 60 unbroken years, was roundly and in a most surprising manner, defeated by the then opposition All Progressives Congress (APC). That was the first time a ruling party would lose in a national election to an opposition party. Analysts believe that what befell the PDP then was largely due to its arrogant posturing that it was indomitable.
However, many thought that after the unexpected defeat which humbled the party, it would learn from its mistakes and avoid the pitfalls that led to its defeat. But, some people have argued that that might not be happening any time soon judging from the recent developments in the party. It appears the party has not learnt much from history.
Those who hold this view said the party’s refusal to adhere to its traditional power rotation between North and South, against entreaties from the top hierarchy of the party, as well as many well meaning Nigerians, was the beginning of what has snowballed to some governors threatening to stay aloof and not work for the success of the party’s presidential candidate. That also informs the latest push for the national chairman’s removal since the presidential candidate is from the same zone with him.
Against the decision of the 17 Southern Governors, including the governors on the APC platform, at three different fora that power must return to the South after President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight years on the saddle in 2023, coupled with strong voices in the party like that of Chief Bode George pointing to the same direction, the PDP leadership turned a deaf ear to all that, and threw the presidential primary open to all zones instead of zoning it to the South as was its tradition. Many believe that it was from that moment that the discontentment and anger, which is today threatening the party’s victorious outing in 2023, began to build up among members and even among Nigerians in general.
Then, there are those who believe that the role of the party’s national chairman, Dr. Iyorcha Ayu, in no small measure, has also contributed to the crisis rocking the party at present. Those on this side of the divide said the national chairman, from the outset, had a personal agenda. “From the beginning, he never hid his intention that it was Atiku he wanted. That was why he jettisoned zoning and worked underground for Atiku’s emergence. Remember how elated he was when the Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal, who was a presidential aspirant stepped down and advised his supporters among the delegates to vote for Atiku. He personally congratulated Tambuwal for taking such a bold step. As a national chairman, was he supposed to have done that publicly even if he was happy about it? No, but he did that and it was widely reported. He was elected as the national chairman from the North in the understanding that the party’s presidential candidate would come from the South as both positions cannot come from one zone, but he had another thing in mind. He shifted the goal post in the middle of the game and as far as we are concerned, that was the genesis of the whole crisis rocking that party,” they submitted.
However, there are those who believe that while party members from the South were still trying to come to terms with the fact that the party’s standard bearer is a Northerner, and that if the party wins, the South would be out of power at the national level for 16 years at a stretch, Atiku again, stirred the hornet’s nest, by rejecting Wike as his running mate. Wike is believed to have held the party together when people like Atiku, Saraki and others abandoned it, and as such, deserved a better deal. And that was why he was recommended by 14 out of 17 members of a committee that was set up by the party to pick Atiku’s running mate. But, Atiku turned down the recommendation in a most flagrant manner and went for the Delta State Governor, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa; a decision Wike and his supporters see as one disgrace too many.
The Rivers Governor, many believe, has been brutally bruised and disgraced by Atiku’s latest move and going by his antecedents, he would not take it lightly. That may have been the main reason behind the alleged latest move by the six governors, four from the South and two from the North Central.
However, analysts have also come to the conclusion that if the six governors are allowed to carry out their threat, plus other pockets of anger and discontentment in several quarters among the party stalwarts, it would be nunc dimittis for the party. In other words, the party would have allowed itself to travel the same route it took in 2014/15 and the end would just be another brutal defeat in the 2023 presidential election.
Those who are bringing Wike and his supporters into the picture are saying that if Atiku already had who he wanted as his running mate in mind, he would not have allowed a committee to be set up on that by the party. “For Atiku to have rejected Wike after 14 out of 17 members of the committee recommended him above Okowa and Akwa Ibom State Governor, Udom Emmanuel, means that Atiku is still very bitter with Wike for challenging him at the primary. If that is the case, why would Wike stake his life to work for somebody who is nursing such anger and bitterness towards him? Don’t forget that Wike has spent his time and resources to rebuild the party when most members, including Atiku, abandoned it after its defeat in 2015 and 2019. So, those in that committee who picked him above Okowa and Udom must have considered his contributions to the party, but Atiku didn’t give a hoot. He just does not want to hear the name Wike. But, it doesn’t work that way because Wike is also a force to reckon with in the party and he has his supporters who felt insulted. So, whatever happens to Atiku as a result of that decision is well deserved because he brought it upon himself”, they said.
Lending his voice to the raging crisis in PDP is the President of the Middle Belt Forum (MBF), Dr. Pogu Bitrus, who noted that those six governors might just have woken up to the reality of the position his group has always taken, which is clearly that the presidency in 2023 should go to the South. “The North would have had eight years of the presidency by 2023. We have zoning in the PDP’s constitution but it was jettisoned just to favour some interest. Before 2019, this same PDP zoned the presidency to the North because at that time, Buhari was just concluding his first term and only northern candidates contested. What has gone wrong that injustice came in this time? It is simply to protect the interest of some people who are not even interested in the party. After Atiku lost the primary in 2019, he left for Dubai and only came back when another primary was around the corner,” he stated.
He also noted that the attitude of the national chairman going to congratulate Tambuwal for stepping down for Atiku during the primary election as was widely reported in the papers, also left many aggrieved, especially those in the camp of Gov Wike. He said for failing to stick to the zoning arrangement which is clearly stated in the party’s constitution, what is happening to the party at the moment is expected.
“The mistake has been made from the outset because the party would have maintained its zoning arrangement which favoured the South this time. This problem would have been solved because any aggrieved northerner would have left the party if the person so wished and those interested in the party would have continued but that did not happen. So, what is happening now is expected. I just think that the governors are seeing what those of us heading the socio-cultural groups have seen long time ago, which made us to continually say that we will support only a candidate of southern extraction to the presidency in 2023,” he said.
He also said that going against the resolution of the 17 Southern Governors in Asaba by Okowa could also be one of the reasons behind the alleged move by some governors to remain aloof as the party goes into the 2023 presidential contest. “Remember that it was in Okowa’s Delta State that the 17 Southern Governors first declared that the presidency should move to the South irrespective of political party, and that none of them should accept to be a running mate to any northern candidate under any circumstance. Surprisingly and disappointedly, it is the same Gov Okowa in whose state such decisions were taken that has accepted to be a running mate to a northern candidate.
“And again, after the PDP primary and the emergence of Atiku as the party’s candidate, a 17-man committee was set up by the same national chairman of the PDP to select who would be the running mate to Atiku. It was widely reported in the media that 14 out of the 17 committee members supported that Wike should be the running mate to Atiku while only three supported Okowa. But in spite of that, the national chairman and Atiku decided that it was Okowa they wanted and not Wike. Whatever their internal problem could have been remains their problem, but I think and I believe that the governors have started to see the light that the presidency is supposed to go to the South.
“We pray that our interpretation that they have seen the light becomes true, so that we will all join forces to take the presidency to the South in 2023. In doing so, those who think that they can lord themselves over everybody will get the clear message that Nigeria can no longer be tossed around for the interest of a few,” he stated.
For the President of Arewa Youths Consultative Forum (AYCF), Alhaji Yerima Shettima, the governors’ anger that certain individual has been treated unjustly and unfairly is expected, even as he insisted that the governors have not come out to categorically say that they would not support Atiku. He said the governors were only expressing their anger and disenchantment and it was too early for anybody to conclude that they could not reconcile before the election.
“For me, they are likely to reconcile from what I have seen. It hasn’t got to a point that they will completely say they will not support Atiku, considering the fact that they know themselves better. So, naturally, some people will feel cheated and there will be some disagreement and that is what they are doing, but they will iron it out because there is still a long time to do that. The election is still a bit far. There is going to be opening for reconciliation and I believe that it will be in the best interest of all of them because the game ahead is not going to be easy,” he said.
However, in the midst of all the controversies and confusions in the party, the party’s presidential candidate, Atiku, is alleged to be in far away Dubai. As for Atiku being away in Dubai, Shettima said: “I would have ordinarily expected that he doesn’t go anywhere outside Nigeria at this critical period. It is a moment to reconcile. He has not won the election yet and when you have not won election, you have to be very committed. You don’t begin to feel that the battle is over when it has not even started. He didn’t need to travel because often times, there is this impression that he travels and abandons the country and his kinsmen to Dubai and stays there anytime the party is going through rough times. You cannot govern the country from outside.
‘So, one would expect him to be home at this critical period to reconcile all aggrieved members of his party, meet with them and form a strategy on how to win the election, and not to travel out. Whoever advised him to travel out is not doing any good to him at all. I want to believe that we will not have a president that will spend our money in Dubai and other countries of the world because there are lots of challenges in the country now, particularly with security. We need a president that will always be around in the country and address the issues locally and get them right.”