By Chukwudi Nweje
For close watchers of activities during every election circle in Nigeria, the power game for 2023 has started. As the gladiators fine-tune strategies to entrench their relevance during the general elections, the picture of what to expect is becoming clearer each day.
Many critical observers agree that Nigerians will witness one of the most turbulent elections in 2023. For the fact that the ruling party, APC has substantially failed to deliver its campaign promises to the people, the dominant argument is that for Nigeria to survive, the status quo in terms of electioneering must change; people expect to see a paradigm shift both in the attitude of the voters and quality of those seeking public office. Perhaps, for the first time, it should not be business as usual.
But as it appears, in 2023, the two dominant parties would still be the All Progressives Congress(APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP). All eyes are on both parties as they prepare for their national conventions where their standard bearers would emerge.
Many expect that like in 2019, the opposition party, PDP would give the ruling party, APC a good fight in 2023. In the calculation of critical observers, the question is who among the aspirants is popular enough to fly the PDP’s flag and challenge the ruling party?
Politics of zoning
This is one issue that has become part of the political culture of the country. It has continued to reoccur in every election in Nigeria no matter all the arguments against it.
Characteristically, ahead of 2023, one of the most contentious issues in the PDP is which of the geo-political zones should produce its presidential candidate.
On Monday, a former national legal adviser of the party, Mark Jacob said the PDP has not zoned its presidential ticket to the Northern part of the country as being speculated.
Jacob, who is also a former attorney general and commissioner of justice in Kaduna State made the remark when he appeared on Arise TV’s ‘The Morning Show’, on Monday.
But a founding member of the PDP, former Jigawa State governor, Sule Lamido had, in a recent interview explained that zoning arrangement was conceived to heal past wounds and assure all parts of the country but advised that the mood should be reviewed in deciding whether to maintain or jettison the arrangement. So the argument continues to go back and forth.
In the light of the all the issues, some people believe the presidential seat should be zoned to the South East for the sake of equity and justice as it is the only region from the three major tribes in Nigeria that has not produced the president of the country since 1999. Apart from that, the South East is a zone perceived to have substantially contributed to the PDP.
However, despite the moral of the agitation for the South East presidency, many believe that realistically, the North is the only region well positioned to field a candidate in 2023 that will square up to the ruling party just like it happened in 2019. The argument is that even though the East has a good case but the opposition party needs to get back power from the APC first before any form of rationalization. Proponents of this strategy believe that fielding a popular candidate from the North which has a massive voting population will place the PDP in a position of advantage.
So, with the calculation that the APC is going to pick its candidate from the Southern part of the country, analysts argue that the best strategy for the PDP would be to zone the presidency to the North as a counter balancing measure.
A top member of the PDP who did not want his name in print told Daily Sun that most party leaders believe that if PDP wants to win, it must go to the North and that will give it an advantage over the ruling party the way it did for APC in 2015. There is also a supporting argument that former President Goodluck Jonathan produced by the PDP is from the South and he spent six years in office, hence, going by the zoning arrangement, the opposition party should go to the North in the search for the 2023 Presidential standard bearer.
So, the projection is that barring unforeseen circumstances, the PDP will pick its presidential candidate from the Northern part of the country even as the party is set to zone its chairmanship position to the South. They are all expected to emerge at the party’s national convention slated for October 30 and 31.
Already, the long list of aspirants from the South jostling for the chairmanship position seems to suggest where the PDP will zone its presidential seat. Names being mentioned for the chairmanship position include Olagunsoye Oyinlola, Bode George, Jimi Agbaje, and Liyel Imoke.
Others are former Ondo State governorship candidate, Mr. Eyitayo Jegede and former South-West National Vice Chairman, Dr Eddy Olafeso.
So, for those who understand the dynamics of Nigerian politics, if the South produces the chairman of the PDP, it is almost certain that the presidential seat would be ceded to the Northern region.
However, During its 92nd National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting at the weekend, the party had announced that it will arrive at a zoning formula for the National Working Committee (NWC) at a meeting billed for September 9.
Jostle for PDP ticket
As expected, the names of many aspirants are already in the public domain. Surprisingly, Dr Doyin Okupe, former media aide to former President Jonathan is the only aspirant from the South who has declared his interest to be president in 2023.
Apart from Okupe, others whose names are being mentioned daily as possible contestants on the platform of the party are from the North.
They include but may not be limited to the PDP presidential candidate in 2019, Abubakar Atiku, Former Senate President, Bukola Saraki, Sokoto State governor, Aminu Tambuwal and Bauchi State governor, Bala Mohammed.
Among the quartet, former Vice president Abubakar Atiku is one man whose ambition is no more a subject of speculation. Most Nigerians know that if there is anything Atiku wants in life, it is to occupy the nation’s number one seat. Right from 2003, as vice to former president Olusegun Obasanjo, no one had been in doubt of his ambition to be president of Nigeria.
Though he is reputed with a vast experience in public and private sectors but it appears he is facing a lot of odds ahead of 2023. Many party leaders across the country do not seem to be comfortable with him as they believe he has become a serial aspirant having contested consecutively since 2007. There are also those who think that he abandoned the party immediately after he lost the 2019 election and went out of the country and had been in hibernation until now.
A top PDP member who declined to be mentioned regretted that Atiku did not even attend the court sessions during the hearing of the election petitions filed on his loss of the election both at the tribunal and the appellate courts. He said that many PDP members believe that if he had provided the needed leadership, the party will not be in the crisis that it is today and would not have lost some of the key members. Also, age is no more on the side of Atiku. Recently, in an interview he granted the media during his 80th birthday anniversary, former Head of State, Gen Ibrahim Babangida(rtd) recommended that the next president of Nigeria should be in his 60s. His recommendations trended and gained a lot of traction with politicians on all sides of the political divides.
One of those being touted as having presidential ambition in 2023 is also Bauchi State governor, Bala Mohammed and he has the advantage of coming from a zone that has a massive voting population.
However, many power brokers in the party may have reservations about his candidature as they would expect him to complete his second term first before aspiring for a bigger office.
He is also expected to work hard to reinforce the party in his state and the entire North East zone.
Analysts argue that the contest is likely to be between former Senate President, Bukola Saraki and Sokoto State governor, Aminu Tambuwal. The calculation is that it will be a straight fight between both men who are young and vibrant.
Both aspirants also have vast experience in politics and public office. For Saraki, he was governor of Kwara State for eight years, and was Senator for eight years with four of them as Senate President.
Also, Tambuwal was Speaker of House of Representatives and currently in his second tenure as governor of Sokoto State.
But looking at both aspirants, the calculation is that if it is about geo-political factor and the issue of being from the core- North, Tambuwal is favoured because he is from North-West while Saraki is from the North Central. The North West has advantage in terms of voting population.
However, many insist that if it is about competence, capability, capacity and courage in leadership, Saraki is the ideal man for Nigeria at a time of major crises in many sectors of the economy.
For many optimists, the opposition party stands a good chance of winning in 2023 if only they field a good candidate. The thinking of those in this school of thought is that the below par performance of APC in the last six years has provided the PDP the best opportunity to recapture power in the next general elections.