Adewale Sanyaolu
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said that aboutthree billion people still lack access to clean energy fuels while another one billion also lack same for electricity.
Secretary General of OPEC, Mr. Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, disclosed this at the launch of the 2019 OPEC World Oil Outlook (WOO 2019), in Wiener Börsensäle, Vienna, Austria, last week
The OPEC scribe noted access to energy is a universal obligation required to address the major challenge of energy poverty.
He stated that energy is a central facet that links our daily lives; because it is not on call, cannot take a holiday, and cannot call in sick because it is a 24-hour service.
According to him, energy is a central facet that links our daily lives; because it is not on call, cannot take a holiday, and cannot call in sick being a 24-hour service.
‘‘It is also clear that all forms of energy will be required to help in meeting this expanding demand in a sustainable way, balancing the needs of people in relation to their social well-being, the economy and the environment.
Renewables are coming of age, and are forecast to witness the largest growth in percentage terms, but even by 2040 all renewables combined are only estimated to make up around 19 per cent of the global energy mix.
Natural gas experiences the largest demand growth, the share of coal drops the most, and oil is expected to remain the fuel with the largest share in the energy mix throughout the forecast period to 2040.
We appreciate that some will view this as an OPEC forecast, and dispute the numbers.’’
He maintained that many OPEC member countries have great sources of solar and wind, with huge investments being made in this field, saying OPEC supports the development of renewables.
He maintained that OPEC does not see any reputable publication projecting, in their reference outlooks, that renewables will come anywhere close to overtaking oil and gas in the decades ahead.
The OPEC boss disclosed that oil demand is forecast to reach 110.6 million barrels a day (mb/d) by 2040. According to him, the non-OECD drives oil demand with expected growth of 21.4 mb/d by 2040, compared to 2018, whereas the OECD region is estimated to contract by 9.6 mb/d.
He stated that long-term oil demand growth comes mainly from petrochemicals at 4.1 mb/d, road transportation at 2.9 mb/d and aviation at 2.4 mb/d.
‘In the road transportation sector, which will remain by far the largest sector for oil demand, the total vehicle fleet – including passenger and commercial vehicles – is estimated to grow by more than one billion to around 2.4 billion vehicles on the road by 2040.
It is also noticeable that the long-term share of electric vehicles in the total fleet is projected to reach a level of around 13 per cent in 2040, supported by falling battery costs and incentivising policies, but the majority of the growth continues to be for conventional vehicles.