The volatile mixture of playing for high stakes politics  and mending fences in the crisis-prone  All Progressives Congress(APC) reaches a critical, feverish, tipping point few hours from now . How much the ruling  party  had learnt from an epochal event of this nature four years ago, will be put to  ultimate test today. It’s the official inauguration of the 9th National Assembly(NASS) since the present democratic dispensation in 1999. The highpoint will be  the election of principal officers of the two legislative chambers – the Senate – and the House of Representatives. Expectedly, national and international attention will be focused on both chambers, how they elect their  principal officers for the next four years. 

With President Muhammadu Buhari having issued a proclamation last Thursday, for the 9th National Assembly, officially signaling the end of the 8th  Assembly and the commencement  of the 9th NASS, effective today, the stage is set for an event of uncommon, profound nature whose outcome might be a matter of high-octane debates in the days and weeks to come. The first business of today will be for the Clerk of the National Assembly to read a proclamation for holding the first session of the Senate.  Thereafter, he will proceed to the roll call in alphabetical order. Each Senator called will then present the writ of election and receipt for the declaration of assets and liabilities. The same ritual will take place in the House of Representatives.

The stage is now ready for eligibility, nominations, acceptance and voting process. All of these stages Standing Orders of the National Assembly and according to the provisions of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Let’s put things in proper context. Section 50(1) (a)  of the 1999 Constitution stipulates that there shall be a President and a Deputy President of the Senate, who shall be elected by members of that House from among themselves ,and (b) a Speaker and a Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, who shall be elected by the members of that House from among themselves.

Also, Section 57 states who is eligible to vote today. It says that “Any person who sits or votes in the Senate or the House of Representatives knowing or having reasonable grounds for knowing that he is not entitled to do so commits an offence and is liable on conviction to such punishment as shall be prescribed by an Act of the National Assembly “. This provision prohibits an outside force, no matter how powerful,  from participating in the selection or election of the principal officers of the National Assembly.

If the events of the last couple of days and weeks are pointers to what will happen today in both chambers, don’t rule out a stormy session or a showdown like never before. Don’t forget that the hardest, fiercest political battles of the present democratic dispensation had been fought in the hallowed chambers. As we had also witnessed in the past, the election of principal officers of the National Assembly could make or mar the enormous tasks before the lawmaking body.

One may begin to ask: why is the election of the principal officers, especially that of the Senate President, Deputy Senate, President, Speaker of the House of Representatives and the Deputy Speaker so important that the ruling APC  is leaving no stone unturned to avoid the crushing embarrassment it suffered on June 9,2015, when against all odds, Senator Bukola Saraki and his  impetuous group stage a “coup” of some sorts that got him elected as President of the Senate and Yakubu Dogara, as Speaker  of the House of Representatives? The answer is simple. You cannot underestimate the power of these positions. In their capacities, these officers are the guiding lights in the development of legislations and getting them passed. They can make things easy or tough and rough for the President.  If in doubt, ask President Buhari of his experience in his first tenure.

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But can the APC avoid thunder from striking twice in four years?  Can the fences it says it has reportedly  mended produce Senator Ahmed Lawan as the  President of the 9th Senate, and  Hon. Femi  Gbajabiamila as Speaker of the House of Representatives?  Can Senator Ali Ndume spring a surprise like some heavyweight  boxing upsets  such as Ruiz defeating  Anthony Joshua, Leon Spinks against Muhammad Ali and Buster Douglas great night in Tokyo against Mike Tyson? Like in sport, upsets, impossibilities are also possible in politics. In the same vein, can Gbajabiamila easily fend off the threats of Hon. Umat Bag, John Dyegh, Nkeiruka Onyejocha, new entrants  Emeka Nwajiuba, Segun Odebunmi and Olajide Olatunsun?

I see see Senator Lawan ambition more easy to realise than that of Gbajabiamila. It’s all about choosing between party supremacy and equit. Many keen watchers of Nigerian greasy  politics are interested in how these things will play out today. My concern is even deeper. Common purpose is essential for the development  of mutual trust and national cohesion. But the sense of  common purpose vanishes the very moment a ruling party sacrifices equity on the altar of party supremacy. This is why anger and bitterness are running deep in many places because certain geopolitical zones have been excluded from contesting the plum positions  at stake today.   Where has equity and fairness gone in a situation where the South East zone is mistreated in the sharing of these positions? What kind of Change and fairness is the ruling APC preaching when, for instance, the vice president is from the South West and the Speaker of the House of Representatives is zoned to the same zone?

The  argument that this doesn’t matter is the height of political insincerity and infinitely more intriguing and troubling. It robs Peter to pay Paul. It is most unkind to pretend that the South East has not been shortchanged, simply because it did not deliver block votes to the APC. It’s,therefore, important that the leadership of the APC reverses this arrangement before voting gets underway today.  Party supremacy so ruthlessly imposed serves no useful purpose.  It only serves as a divider, not a unifier.

While this is the right thing to do, other issues should engage the attention of the public today. First is the voting method to the adopted. Voting by electronic  secret ballot to be conducted by the Clerks -at -table using the list of members-elect ,as provided  in the Senate Standing Order, Rule 3(e)(i)  and(ii) should be the preferred method. It will guarantee transparency and prevent alleged plots that some political godfathers may hijack the election of the principal officers. A leadership is as good as the process that produced it. I smell trouble today if any option other than secret ballot is chosen for leadership election today.

Let’s give APC the benefit of the doubt that it is not planning to play any hanky-panky  in the election of the principal officers of both Houses. That will be an invitation for  fresh crisis for  a party some of its members will rather prefer to destroy its broom than share it. The lesson of the past beckons for APC to save itself and the integrity of our democracy and the critical institution of lawmaking represented by the National Assembly.

Again, how the  leadership emerges points to how strong, how independent,  or how pliable the legislature will be in the hands of the Executive arm. Let’s hope that the threat  by the National Chairman of APC, Adams Oshiomhole that the leadership of the 9th  National Assembly will be “winner takes all” would not be a prophesy of  crisis. For sure, Oshiomhole has never been ‘Mr.Nice Guy’. And  his impetuous nature and present travails  speak volumes.     Therefore, much thought  should be given to how to believe that in spite of the volatile nature of our politics, our democracy can be given oxygen to rekindle confidence in the leadership of our  parliament.  Today will be, either  a proof of that  optimism or  another hope  lost.