From Magnus Eze, Enugu

Tomorrow, residents and people of voting age in Anambra State would file out to exercise their franchise to choose who leads the Light of the Nation in the next four years. For those who have followed the build up to the poll on Saturday, it would expectedly be the mother of all governorship elections not just in Anambra but Nigeria at large.

It would be an understatement to say that the tension in the South Eastern state is high.

But many agree that despite all manner of conspiracy theories around the election, it would come and go. For obvious reasons, the consensus among various commentators is that it is in the best interest of Anambra people that the election holds in the state tomorrow. There is anxiety for it to hold in spite of the serious security threat to the entire process.

The most scary threat came from the Separatist campaigners, the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), who earlier said there would be total lockdown of the South East region from November 5 (today), if its leader, Nnamdi Kanu was not released unconditionally from the custody of the Department of State Services (DSS), where he has been held for more than three months. He is facing charges of treason.

To make matters worse, some faceless groups have continued to perpetuate killings in the state just as another rag-tag group, led by one Innocent Orji, had through some viral videos vowed that the election would not hold.

As a consequence, a coalition of civil society organisations in the state had called for a shift in the election date but the security agencies and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) have repeatedly reassured that there was no going back on the November 6 date.

Also, the Inspector-General of Police, Usman Alkali Baba, had on October 30, carried out what he described as “a major overhauling of the security landscape in Anambra” ahead of the election by deploying two deputy inspectors-general of police (DIG) and five assistant inspectors-general of police (AIG) there, to help ensure adequate security for the poll.

Spokesperson of the force headquarters, Frank Mba, who announced the deployment in a statement in Abuja, said 14 commissioners of police, 31 deputy commissioners of police, and 48 assistant commissioners of police have also been deployed to the state.

IGP Baba had earlier disclosed that at least 34, 587 operatives were to be deployed following the outcome of election security threat analysis conducted by the Force Intelligence Bureau.

Mba said Joseph Egbunike, a deputy inspector-general of police, is to coordinate the security component for the election. He would be assisted by the acting deputy inspector-general of police in-charge of operations, Zaki Ahmed.

According to IGP Baba, the police are “adequately prepared” for the election, and would do everything within their powers to ensure a free and fair election in the state.

He, then, called on citizens in Anambra State to “come out en masse and exercise their franchise as adequate security has been emplaced to protect them before, during and after the elections.”

How the parties stand

For the bookmakers, there are just three major political parties in tomorrow’s election, namely: All Progressives Congress (APC), All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). However, some political dynamics within the PDP had thrown up the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) and located it as a major force in the Anambra governorship contest.

Then, there are the Young Progressives Party (YPP) which controls a senatorial seat in the state and also the African Action Congress (AAC) which is also garnering support across the state. There are also other seemingly light weights such as Accord Party, African Democratic Congress (ADC), Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Labour Party (LP).

On paper, the election should ordinarily be a straight fight between the incumbent APGA and the APC because of the preponderance of supposedly big names in Anambra politics that recently flooded the ruling party(APC).

But the three major parties in Anambra: APC, APGA and PDP, have big challenges staring them in the face as they go into the election.

For the APC represented by Senator Andy Uba, it has been creating awareness, but the party lacks total grassroots support in Anambra. The tale of sorrow and blood from marauding herdsmen is an albatross to the APC because voters believe that victory for the party would further embolden their tormentors. What this means is that the APC has remained a hard sell; their message has not been received and might remain so. However, critical observers argue that it would be preposterous to underrate the overwhelming influence the ruling party has a potent tool for tomorrow’s election.

Some pessimists also think that APGA has in the last 16 failed to meet the expectation of Anambra people. The poor economic condition of the masses is the biggest demon confronting the party. There is also a negative perception surrounding its candidate, Prof Charles Soludo as an arrogant person who claims to be all-knowing. His opponents insist that APGA’s grassroots model would not save him.

However, like Soludo or hate him, many see him as the candidate to beat in the election because of his outstanding credentials especially during his tenure as the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria(CBN). Some believe that among the candidate, he appears to be the most prepared.

For the PDP, the thinking out there is that it lost a golden opportunity to reclaim the Agu Awka Government House because of the factor of god-fatherism that has bedeviled the party. The perception in many quarters is that godfathers have been at the roots of the challenges facing Anambra today.

The dismal outing of former Governor Chinwoke Mbadinuju, many believe, was caused by a godfather who did not allow him to lead the state.

As a result, Mbadinuju did not return for a second term, and Chris Ngige was imposed on the state. Ngige however got into office, dishonored the agreement and started working but his godfathers who allegedly wanted him to sign off Anambra’s allocation to them followed him up and abducted him from office. Even though Ngige like a cat with nine lives, wriggled out, he could not do his work again as the state was made ungovernable for him.

At that point, the godfathers linked up with Peter Obi in APGA and through their contacts, networks and connections, took the power away from Ngige through the court judgment. Then Obi became the governor and served for eight years.

It is a known fact that after Obi’s eight-year tenure, he also wanted to be a godfather and actually was one for Governor Willie Obiano. It did not take long before the godfather and his godson’s relationship soured and got to an irretrievable point. Today, they are two of the best enemies of Anambra that even the Bishops could not reconcile them.

However, despite the odds against the PDP, it remains a force to record with because of the quality of its candidate. Many see him as a man with a rich track record and experience which he would bring to bear on governance.

Ubah, Okonkwo, Nwankwo, Maduka, Nwankpo

Apart from the big three parties, there are also candidates of the YPP, Senator Ifeanyi Ubah, ZLP, Dr. Obiora Okonkwo, African Action Congress (AAC), Dr Chidozie Nwankwo, ACCORD party, Dr. Godwin Maduka, ADC, Akachukwu Nwankpo, Labour Party, Obiora Agbasimelo and Social Democratic Party (SDP), Dr. Obinna Uzor who have individually garnered visibility and have done a lot of campaign.

Ubah as current senator of Anambra South Senatorial District is expected to make appreciable impact in the election with his grassroots appeal especially amongst the Keke (tricycle) operators, barrow pushers of Onitsha and their likes, but it is not known how far such street popularity will push him and his party.

Also, the AAC candidate, Dr Nwankwo is a well-known figure not only in Anambra but Nigeria and has made a name for himself in the sectors of business and humanitarian work, both in the Eastern region and across the country.

There is also Maduka of the Accord Party whose aspiration initially looked bright particularly in the PDP, but dimmed after the party’s primary election of June 26, 2021. Not many are confident that his party would have a good showing on Saturday.

However, one man that has continued to show strength is Dr. Obiora Okonkwo of the ZLP. His leaving the PDP after the party’s controversial governorship primary election remains a big blow to the party. It is believed that majority of PDP faithful across the state are still with the man whose candidacy promises some surprise in the election. He is also at home with various Christian denominations in the state.

The mathematics

Out of the three Senatorial Districts: Anambra North, Anambra Central and Anambra South; the Central has the highest number of registered voters, dominantly in Idemili North and South LGAs.

Anambra North has the second highest registered voters, majority of the votes in Ogbaru LGA.

Anambra South is the least in terms of registered voters but Aguata LGA has the highest registered voters in South.

The ZLP’s Dr Obiora Okonkwo (Dikeora) is from Anambra Central, and the only candidate from the entire zone. Okonkwo hails from Idemili North that commands over 30 per cent of the overall votes cast every election year. The possible scenario tomorrow is that Central will vote Central, Dikeora will win opponents with significant margin there.

Anambra North has the second highest registered voters; the ZLP is also expected to harvest in Anambra North because the party sowed there too. The ZLP deputy governorship candidate, Jessie Balonwu, is also the only running mate from Anambra North. For the Anambra North that has been often undermined as not being financially endowed, the zone is at peace that one of their own is the deputy.

There is no doubt that other three parties, APC APGA and PDP have very significant battle ahead of them. Andy Uba, Charles Soludo and Valentine Ozigbo will have to determine who is who in the old Aguata ground.

In addition, the whole of Anambra South is in pieces as Accord Party may show some flashes in Orumba North and South. YPP could possibly win Nnewi North and probably South, just as ADC’s Nwankpo and SDP’s Uzor will slug it out in Ihiala.

The emerging scenario might be that of everyman to his strong hold but the candidates will all show up in Anambra North to wrestle for votes as none is from Anambra South. Obiora Okonkwo’s victory in Idemili will be a very big advantage. The running mate of the APC candidate, Emeka Okafor also hails from Idemili, Nnobi precisely.

The race would also be tough when the APC, APGA, PDP and ZLP shift the battle to Anambra North.

This is without prejudice to the influence of several other big politicians from the North including Senators Stella Oduah and Joy Emordi; House of Representatives member Lynda Ikpeazu and the rest that recently defected to the APC.

Outgoing Governor Obiano who hails from Anambra North is also expecting to deliver the zone to his party, APGA. For him, tomorrow’s election is like his last political battle, so, it would be titanic at least in his Senatorial zone.   

Regardless of all the variables, as Anambra votes for a new governor, a potpourri of factors would come to play including the issues of god-fatherism, incumbency, role of federal might, voting strength of candidates’ catchment areas, final decisions of the two major churches, and last minute horse trading.