By Omoniyi Salaudeen
All is now set for the long-awaited presidential primary of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). It was originally scheduled to hold on Sunday, May 29, but the party leadership decided to seize the opportunity of extension of deadline granted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to postpone it.
Now, Monday, June 6 is the D-day. The venue is Eagle Square, Abuja. Here, the party will be playing host to 2,322 elected delegates from across the 36 states of the federation to nominate the presidential standard bearer of the party.
As at the last count, there are 23 aspirants vying for the ticket to represent the party in the 2023 general elections. These include Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu; Vice President Yemi Osinbajo; Senate President, Ahmad Lawan; former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi; former Minister of Niger Delta, Godwin Akpabio; former Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation, Dr Ogbonnaya Onu; former Imo State governor, Senator Rochas Okorocha; Kogi State governor, Yahaya Bello, and former Ogun State governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun.
Others are Pastor Tunde Bakare, Cross River State governor, Prof Ben Ayade; his Ebonyi State counterpart, Dave Umahi; Ekiti State governor, Dr Kayode Fayemi; Minister of State for Education, Emeka Nwajiuba; former Senate President, Senator Ken Nnamani; Jigawa governor, Mohammed Badaru; and former Zamfara State governor, Sen. Ahmed Yerima.
Senator Ajayi Borroffice; Mrs Uju Kennedy Ohnenye; former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole; Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Timipre Sylva are also not left out of the race.
The rescheduled convention is the anti-climax of the intense politicking that has been going on since the commencement of political activities.
In order to outwit one another, concerned aspirants have gone round the country to woo both elected and statutory delegates with mouth-watering promises. But only delegates elected from the 774 local government areas in the country will be eligible to vote at this convention, but without the statutory delegates .
Those identified as statutory delegates include the President, Vice President, members of the National Assembly, governors and their deputies, members of the state Houses of Assembly, council chairmen, councillors, and National Working Committees (NWCs) of political parties. Ordinarily, these elected party leaders are supposed to have voting rights during party congresses, primaries, and conventions.
But in what appeared to be an oversight on the part of the lawmakers, the new legislation shut them out from voting in this coming convention.
The Senate had recently amended the Electoral Act to allow them to have a voice in the choice of the party’s standard bearer, but Buhari has not assented to it. If the amended version of the Act is eventually signed into law by the president, 7, 800 delegates would be involved in the convention. Otherwise, his refusal to sign the amendment will automatically shut the door against all categories of statutory delegates.
Regardless, the preparation for nomination of the party’s candidate is already at top gear. It is for the delegates to put aside their personal interests and choose a flag bearer who can take the country out of the woods.
Among others, insecurity, economic stagnation, corruption, collapsing education sector, ethno-religious divisions, banditry, and kidnapping for ransom are some of the challenges which demand competent leadership. The onus is, therefore, on the delegates to put these issues side by side with the promises the aspirants have made in their campaigns and measure them with their antecedents so as to serve as a guide for the right choice.
However, as the Electoral Act only permits three elected delegates from each of the 774 local government areas of the country, it is very doubtful if there would be an objective standard for the nomination of a candidate. With the power conferred on the governors by the new arrangement, they are now in a vantage position to dictate the shots.
Besides, there are already whispers that President Buhari might be making moves to strike a deal with the governors and the National Assembly members on the need to adopt a consensus candidate. This was believed to be part of the discussions he had with them in a recent caucus meeting. But the initiative met a brick wall as aspirants insisted on going to the field to test their popularity and acceptability.
Out of the 23 aspirants vying for the ticket, only a few of them have gone round the country and visited the states to canvass delegates’ votes. Those in the front runner are Tinubu, Osinbajo, Lawan, Bello, Amaechi, and Fayemi . Other than these six contenders, the rest appear to be pretenders.
Among the aspirants, Tinubu appears to have a formidable network of connections across the country. Since he made the declaration of his interest to run for the presidency, he has been crisscrossing the country, talking about his capacity to move the country forward.
Speaking with leaders and delegates at the Coronation Hall, Government House, Kano, to canvass votes, he promised to tackle insecurity, revamp the economy, and provide good roads to enable farmers to bring their produce to the market to make the agricultural sector more lucrative, adding that “the country needs the formation of a commodity exchange mechanism.”
Kano State is one of his strongholds and the strategic importance of the state with its voting strength cannot be overemphasized. Some of his admirers believe that he has the capacity to turn around the fortune of the country because of the foundation he laid for the development of modern Lagos.
Tanko Yakassai in an interview with Sunday Sun assured that Tinubu would get 100 per cent of his vote, those of his four wives, his 20 children, and 85 ground children if he wins the ticket to run for the presidency.
“My wives and my children can belong to any political party. But when the voting time comes, if I am alive in 2023, I will beg them in the name of God to vote for my candidate and that candidate is Tinubu,” he said.
Even at that, the odds against Tinubu are enormous. Apart from health concerns, there are cabals in the presidency who are overtly and covertly working to thwart his presidential ambition. The upcoming convention will decide whether or not he gets the ticket.
However, Senator Anthony Adeniyi, maintained that Tinubu would coast home to victory.
He said: “I am an ardent supporter of Asiwaju, by the grace of God, he will win. He’s a grassroots mobiliser. He has been crisscrossing the states. And I can assure you, he will win by the grace of God. 12 out of 18 governors elected on the platform of the APC have signed his form, which is a manifestation of their love for him.”
He also dismissed the speculation about consensus arrangement and the possible emergence of a dark horse, saying “there is nothing like a consensus, the president can only emerge through the primary.
“You know when he came into government he said he was for everybody, but for nobody. So, he could not have chosen his successor by consensus. No doubt, he may have his preference, but he has to keep it in mind. So, the issue of consensus does not arise. The primary will be conducted and the candidate will emerge. And I know that it is Asiwaju that will emerge.”
For Osinbajo, who has also been to virtually all the states in the country, the real reason for his aspiration to succeed Buhari is his experience of service as vice president.
He stated this in Jigawa State while recently consulting with APC delegates in the state.
“Having been in office as vice president for seven years, I know that God did not give me that opportunity, just for me to sit down somewhere and write the story of my service as vice president.
“In this country, there is a lot of hope; this country has everything necessary to be great, including the men and women who are able to serve. I am very optimistic that all will be well with our country,” he said.
But then, not many people will be excited by the rhetoric. Rather, a preponderance of opinions is in support of something newer and fresher.
Many Nigerians are yearning for a radical departure from the current experience. The decision is up to the delegates to weigh the options available to them in the interest of all Nigerians.
Fayemi’s recent address to the delegates in Niger State also encapsulates what he has to offer as a presidential hopeful. Speaking to the delegates, he charged anyone in doubt of his capacity to remake Nigeria to take a bet on him.
“I am ready for the job. I want you to take a bet on me and you will have no cause to regret it. I can remake Nigeria without unmaking it. I believe in project Nigeria and that Nigeria is worth fighting for and together we can regain the lost glory of Nigeria,” he said.
While he promised to tackle the insecurity currently ravaging the country, it sounds more like a slogan. For all he cares, security is not an all-comers affair.
Therefore, the delegates must be circumspect in taking any decision bordering on security matters.
Amaechi was among the ministers who pulled out of President Buhari’s cabinet to pursue their electoral ambitions.
He has insisted that he is the best candidate who could lead the country to the Eldorado.
But the only credential he has to support the claim is his experience as a former Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly, two-term governor as well as Minister of Transportation.
How far this can carry the enormity of the task of office of the president is left to the delegates to judge. Some say he is one of the dependable allies of the president. The convention holding on Monday will determine where the pendulum swings.
Senate President, Ahmad Lawan, is seen is some quarters as a game-changer.
His late entry into the presidential race raises suspicions about the Northern agenda. As an aspirant with years of legislative experience, he said he possesses all the required experiences to lead Nigeria into greatness if given the mandate in 2023.
“I’ve served at the National Assembly for 23 years which enabled me to acquire lots of experience that can guide me to lead Nigeria to a greater height,” Lawan said.
He also promised to address the security challenges bedeviling the country, particularly in the Northeast.
He is one of the aspirants being looked forward to spring surprise in the planned convention, especially given the convivial relationship between him and the executive.
The National Coordinator, Rescue Nigeria Mission (RNM), a political movement canvassing support for Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State to be president in 2023, Abdullahi Damati, is optimistic that the numerical strength of the youth will give Bello the needed support to actualize his ambition.
For all aspirants, everything depends on what happens at Eagle Square between Monday and Tuesday. It is a make-or-mar party convention.
Some people strongly believe that President Buhari may unveil his succession game plan soon. In particular, the intrigues surrounding the presidential ambition of former President Goodluck Jonathan is already fueling the speculation. If he does and it falls short of expectation, then the looming threat of implosion may become a reality.