Our Reporters
Today, February 16 is the ‘D’ day. It is a day of anxiety, suspense and tension as about 84 million Nigerians file out to choose between the two strong contenders; President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).The exercise caps months of political machinations and horsetrading. Some even say is the ‘mother of all battles’.
The atmosphere is charged and the nation is literally kept in suspense while the voters have become the beautiful brides to the candidates.
Already, the Inspector General of Police, Ag. IGP, Adamu Mohammed has ordered the restriction of vehicular movement from 6am – 6pm today.
In a statement by the Force Public Relations officer, Mr Frank Mba, the IGP said the restriction will assist the security agencies in effectively policing the electoral process, thereby preventing hoodlums and criminally-minded elements from hijacking and disrupting the electoral process.
He urged the citizens to troop out en-masse on the day of the election to exercise their franchise without any fear or apprehension as the Police and other security agencies have already put in place adequate security measures to ensure a safe, secure and conducive environment for a peaceful and credible election. Beyond the assurance from the police, Saturday Sun gathered that heavy security presence has been deployed to some flashpoint states and areas,some of which have been identified and analysed in this report to forstall any breakdown of law and order. It was learnt that personnel from Customs, Immigration have also been mobilised to join the police and the Civil Defence corps to make up for shortage of security forces at the polling units. In addition, soldiers have equally been put on alert and standby in the identified flashpoint states to move in at the shortest notice should any situation goes beyond the strength of the police and others.
A total of 73 presidential candidates are eligible to participate in the presidential poll according to the list released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) but many believe it is a two-horse race. Nigerians have been waiting for today as the voters will also choose those who will represent them at the forthcoming 9th National Assembly. After marketing themselves to the electorate via campaigns, the candidates will today know if their messages resonated with the people.
Speaking on today’s exercise, National Publicity Secretary, Kola Ologbodiyan expressed optimism with regards to the election.
He said: “We are on the ground all over the country. Our candidates have done their homework, and the party is set for today. We are very optimistic that PDP, and our presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is coasting home to victory.
“Nigerians are tired with APC and they are going to use their votes today to effect change. Victory is inevitable for PDP. We have worked for it and we deserve it. We’ve told our supporters that they should be orderly, law abiding but also should be vigilant. We need to be vigilant to ensure that our votes really count.”
In the APC, the message is the same. Director of Media, Buhari Campaign Organisation, Mr Festus Keyamo summed it thus: “ Today is our day; no doubt about that but having stated this, I must state that we are not leaving anything to chance. Our agents and party’s monitoring team are on the ground all over the country to ensure that everything goes in order.
“Having worked in the last three years to deliver dividends of democracy to Nigerians, and with Nigerians accepting the new reforms being put in place to turn the fortunes of Nigeria round, our expectation in this election is victory. Buhari and APC will win.
“They are the choice of Nigerians. Nigerians love Buhari and APC, and today they are going to cast their votes to re-elect Buhari and APC. Buhari is poised to take Nigeria to the next level.”
Buhari’s achievements as selling point
Having carved a niche of incorruptibility in the minds of many Nigerians, President Buhari hopes to take advantage of his achievements and wrestle his major contender, Atiku to the ground. His message of ‘Next Level’ is anchored on consolidating on the achievements of his administration since May, 29, 2015.
The president came with three major promises in 2015. They include security, economy and fighting corruption. His supporters believe he has done substantially well in those three areas. They also believe that comparatively to the 16 years of PDP, the APC has done well in the area of infrastructure also.
The APC National Chairman, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole does not mince words that the President Buhari-led government is the best thing to have happened to Nigeria, as according to him, they have achieved in less than four years what the opposition could not in the past 16 years.
But to many political analysts, the APC may have dissipated more energy criticising the past government and opposition party than delivering the much promised and anticipated dividends of democracy.
Head or tail, President Buhari, battling many odds, is however going into this poll, relying on sentiment and his political oracle posture particularly in the North.
The APC National Publicity Secretary, Mallam Lanre Issa-Onilu, argued that comparing President Buhari with Atiku is like comparing light and darkness. “We have strengthened all our strongholds in 2014 and even in other areas we were not strong previously, we have gained grounds there. We entered into the 2015 general elections with virtually only one or two states in the South West, but it increased after the elections when we won more states.
The Atiku challenge
For the former vice president, this is the fifth time, he would be seeking to govern the country, and the second time he would be on the ballot paper for the presidential contest, having failed to clinch the nomination of his party on three different occasions. The Wazirin Adamawa aspired for the presidency on the platform of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in 1993 and came third in the party’s presidential primaries.
But this time, pundits say the PDP presidential ticket, which Atiku clinched at the party’ s national convention last October was the real deal in his quest to serve as president because of the structure of the party nationwide.
Win or lose, this perhaps, would be the last time the former vice president would be standing for election into the office of president. Atiku had earlier made a public commitment to serve for only one tenure if he is elected President in today’s election. In the event that he loses, it is unlikely that the Adamawa-born politician would want to participate in the 2023 election, as he would be about 76 years old by then.
Expectedly, he is not leaving any stone unturned and has put his all in the campaign. Since his emergence as the PDP candidate last October, Atiku has visited every state in the country to market himself to the people.
Apart from reconciling with his former boss, former President Olusegun Obasanjo with whom he was estranged for several years, Atiku equally built bridges across the six geopolitical zones, resulting in his endorsement by the Ohanaeze Ndigbo, Middle Belt Forum, Afenifere, Northern Elders Forum (NEF), Northern Leaders and Stakeholders Forum and the Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF).
The PDP Presidential Campaign Organisation says the endorsement is a measure of the acceptance across the country. The thrust of the former Vice President’s campaign for today’s election is to “Get Nigeria Working Again” through the revamping of the economy, enhancing security, restructuring the polity, creating more opportunities for the involvement of women and youths in governance among others.
Pundits say his message seems to have resonated well with the people, judging from attendance at his rallies. Last Sunday, the PDP candidate literally locked down the city of Kano.
Earlier in the year, the PDP candidate, in company of the Director General of the PDP Presidential Campaign Organization, Senator Bukola Saraki made a surprise visit to the United States of America. That would be the first time the former Vice President would be visiting America in about 12 years.
The visit, pundits say was aimed at dispelling the claims by the government that the PDP candidate was wanted in the United States for alleged corruption. Prior to the US visit, the ruling party had repeatedly dared him to make a trip to the country.
Anxiety, fears over likely flashpoints
There are many reasons Kano State is a natural flashpoint in Saturday’s polls. The rivalry between the governor of the state, Dr Abudullahi Umar Ganduje and his predecessor, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is well- documented. But the latest desperation, on both sides, is unfamiliar and even frightening.
On the sideline is the battle of relevance between President Buhari in the state and Senator Kawankwaso. For Buhari, Kano State is his joker, his final kick in the election. He strongly believes that, no matter the storm elsewhere, his votes in the state would turn around the tide for him. But Senator Kwankwaso thinks otherwise and has done a lot to diminish him.
To the credit of Kwankwaso is a vast political structure, popularly known as Kwankwassiyya Movement. Members of this structure, which are identified by their white and red caps, are sharply opposed to Buhari or Ganduje and would easily come to fight, if pushed.
Re-fueled by the financial power of the Peoples Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Kwankwassiyya has recently emerged as a seemingly unstoppable force. Only last week, at the Sani Abacha Stadium, during the PDP presidential rally, they demonstrated their stuff to the disbelief of their opponents and detractors.
Kano State, it must also be stated, has an impressive population of unemployed youths, some of whom are on hard drugs. The Yandaba (thug) culture, also, is thriving in the state. In the last few days, the state was literally overrun by thugs loyal to APC and PDP. These thugs, in grave disregard to the Peace Accord of the political parties, invaded the metropolis with knives, dagger, sticks and other dangerous weapons, injuring scores of people, raising fear and panic.
Credible security sources also told Saturday Sun that Gwale and Municipal Local Government Areas, which have the governorship candidate of the PDP in the state, Alhaji Abba Kabiru Yusuf and the State Chairman of APC, Alhaji Abbas Sanusi are major flashpoints in the Saturday polls. They are supported by Dala, an area which is the most populous local government area in the state and therefore, very influential in determining election outcomes in the state.
It was gathered that Gari Mallam Local Government Area- which is not situated in the metropolitan area- is another flashpoint in the state. Populated largely by local hunters known as Ya’ntauri, they are often used by politicians for mischief during elections.
Security sources also listed Doguwa/Tudun Wada axis as yet another flashpoint in the state. According to a source, “We have been having cases of violent clashes in this axis even before the polls. We expect to have issues here because of the gladiators in these areas”, he stated.
The source, however, assured that they (police) have deployed a reasonable number of personnel to all the flashpoints in the state.
Rivers PDP, APC in battle royale
Rivers State is, indeed, a flashpoint, politically, because of its economic viability to the nation. Since this present political dispensation, it has remained a PDP state and has hosted several national events of the party. The state has also repeatedly given bulk votes to its presidential candidates.
However, today’s presidential election tango between the PDP and APC, will heighten tension in the state. If Rivers people were to be allowed to vote their choice candidate, a good number of them would vote Atiku Abubakar, the PDP presidential candidate. The state governor, Nyesom Wike, has for the umpteenth time, accused the President Muhammadu Buhari-led government for abandoning the state. Wike had also accused his predecessor and Minister of Transportation, Chibuike Amaechi, of not using his position to attract any federal project to the state.
Wike has repeatedly alleged of plot by the Federal Government to use security agencies and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to rig the elections. He has also called on the international community to prevail on Buhari to allow all participating political parties to test their popularity.
Though President Buhari, during his campaign in Rivers on Tuesday, February 12, assured Nigerians and Rivers people in particular, of no intimidation, harassment and coercion, Rivers government would take the promise with a pint of salt.
Buhari had stated: “I will be accountable to you (Nigerians). I ask you to, please, bear with me that I am going to be steadfast and I am going to do justice to all Nigerians. Nigeria is one and we will remain one”.
Buhari assured that, through the Armed Forces, Nigerians would be respected and that “they are allowed to vote who they like across (all the political) parties. Please, have faith that I am going to be fair to all. I will not allow any institution to intimidate any constituency or anybody”.
To affirm their (Rivers PDP) doubt, Buhari’s Campaign Director General, Amaechi, in his speech at the campaign ground, literally declared ‘war’ on the PDP and the governor. He stressed that APC would march PDP squarely in the election.
Amaechi declared: “Whatever PDP wants, we will give it to them. We are equal to the task. I will be here till after the election. Whatever Wike wants on Saturday, we will give him. Whatever the PDP wants in Rivers, we will give them. Your Excellency, I am not going to Abuja again from here. In 2015, the army attempted to arrest me a sitting governor.
“We will battle him to the last. Today, we will sing like the Igbo sings. On Saturday, they should get ready. We are ready for them. In 2015, they used federal and state institutions against us. They killed and maimed our leaders. They killed our supporters and beheaded them. They used the courts against us”, Amaechi recalled.
These are some of the indicators of what to expect in the state during the elections starting today.
In Kwara, it’s Saraki versus, FG, APC
Kwara State is for obvious reasons a flash point in this year’s election. This is the state of the Senate President, Bukola Saraki who doubles as the Director General of the Atiku Campaign Organization.
Many believe that given the opportunity, the power elite in the ruling party would like to decimate the influence of Saraki in this year’s general elections. The reason in the estimation of many is because the Senate President has been a thorn in the flesh of President Buhari’s administration. From inception, President Buhari did not want Saraki as the head of the National Assembly and the situation worsened when the Senate President ensured that the executive did not interfere with the statutory functions of the legislature. So, many think that this election is a payback time for Saraki.
However, for those who know the Senate President, in politics, he has become a cat with nine lives. So far, he has survived all political battles he has fought since 1999. And in 2019, politics may not be arithmetic in Kwara. That is why pollsters and strategists keep shifting the aces until the ballots for today’s election are counted. No doubt, Kwara is set for titanic battles between emergent forces and ‘established’ politicians.
There is a wind of change in Kwara and the people are yearning for a new order; they are prepared to put their ballot where their heart directs them. Deep in the hearts of Kwara people, the era of political dictation is over. Citizens, high and low are yearning for a leader; a father-figure who listens, who is accessible, humble and compassionate. As a reference, many remember the late Oloye Olusola Saraki, one time senate leader and perhaps the most consummate politician Kwara ever had.
In Kwara today, some are calling for continuity of Saraki political dynasty while others are singing the dirge of the dynasty. The recent loss by the PDP at the bye-election for Ekiti/Irepodun/Isin and Oke Ero Federal Constituency may be a signpost of danger for Saraki.
Therefore political calculations in Kwara State today seem to be in a state of flux, as the major gladiators appear tentative, quite unsure how and when to call the first shot. On their part, the people are edgy, expectant, and yearning for action.
Atiku fights Buhari in Katsina
For Katsina State, the battle line may have been drawn for today’s presidential election as well as the governorship election in March. Although there are many political parties contesting various positions in the state, according to INEC, indications are that the struggle is essentially between the APC and the PDP.
With what he described as rigorous campaigns it promoted, the PDP says its “door-to-door campaign strategy will ensure that Atiku Abubakar clinches Katsina State at the conclusion of the presidential election.”
But, on its part, the APC insists that it has since perfected measures that will attract no fewer than 2.8 million votes for President Buhari, the party’s presidential candidate. “We are confident that APC will win the election even if you cast only 10 votes,” says Dr. Mustapha Inuwa, Chairman of the Katsina State APC Campaign Council.
According to him, “we want to ensure that out of the about three million votes expected, they give Mr President at least 2.8 million votes and nothing less. We are working round the clock with various stakeholders in all the local government areas. The President needs the votes of Katsina and if Katsina gives him more votes, it will help in getting the cumulative votes which will eventually translate to the President winning the election at the end of the day. In 2015, we had less than the current number of registered voters, about 2.8 million out of which we gave the President 1.3 million votes.”
Moreover, according to the Katsina State Coordinator of “One 2 Tell 10,” one of the Buhari support groups, Dr. Mannir El-Yakub, who spoke with our correspondent on Thursday at the conclusion of Buhari’s re-election rally in Katsina, “I assure you that the crowd you see here is a reflection of what is going to happen on Saturday at the polling stations not only in Katsina but across the North because the people have shown that they want the President to continue in office and build on the achievements he has already recorded.”
In Imo, it’s fight to finish
In Imo, the major flash points during the elections would be in the oil producing communities of the Ohaji\Egbema\ Oguta council areas because of the militant nature of the youths, a direct consequence of the years of neglect of the oil producing communities by both the oil companies operating in the area and successive governments.
Just recently, two young men from Agwa in Oguta council area of the state who were part of the youths protesting against Governor Rochas Okorocha who came on his senatorial campaign were killed. Again, last month, the palatial country home of Dr. Henry Okafor, the House of Representatives candidate of APGA was pulled down through a court order allegedly contrived by his political opponents in Oguta.
Even INEC has consistently marked the entire area in red because of the volatility of the communities during elections. According to the state Resident Electoral Commissioner, Prof. Francis Chukwuemeka Ezeonu, “the Ohaji\Egbema and Oguta council areas in Orlu Zone is a violent area and whenever we do our electoral risk analysis, the place is always marked in red which means it is a high volatile area, and as a result, majority of the ad-hoc staff and corps members recruited for the forthcoming general election rejected their posting to Ohaji/Egbema’’.
Another flash point would likely be in Oru West, Oru East, Nkwerre. The former National Organising Secretary of the APC, Senator Osita Izunaso and a sworn political foe of Governor Okorocha is from there. Sen. Izunaso is in the race for Imo West Senatorial seat on the platform of APGA and would be trying to keep Okorocha and his AA supporters at bay from the entire Oru clan which includes Oru East, the local government of Senator Hope Uzodinma. It would the same scenario in Nkwerre council where Uche Nwosu of AA would want to thwart the senatorial ambition of Jones Onyeriri of the PDP and incumbent House of Representatives member for Nkwerre/Nwangele/Isu/Njaba federal constituency because he commands die-hard supporters in Nkwerre who are prepared to match Uche Nwosu and his troops on the election day.
Meanwhile, the dominant political parties in the state are the APC, PDP, and APGA and of course the AA which is being funded by Governor Rochas Okorocha to ensure that his son-in-law Uche Nwosu becomes the next governor after him.
However, in the presidential election in which President Muhammadu Buhari of APC and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP are the major contenders, majority of the Imo state electorate especially those who are not card carrying members of any of the political parties are most likely to cast their vote for the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar who is quite popular in the state.
This may be particularly so because of the perceived marginalization of Ndigbo in the scheme of things especially in critical appointments by the APC government at the centre. The situation is further compounded by the loss of goodwill of the people of the state by the outgoing Governor Okorocha as a result of his many battles against some Imo leaders and their people.
Nevertheless, Governor Okorocha would also like to prove a point in this Presidential and National Assembly polls, especially as he is also contesting for the Imo West Senatorial seat under the APC with the likes of Senator Ifeanyi Ararume, the governorship candidate of APGA and a former member of the APC, whose presidential candidate has dropped from the presidential contest. Ararume may ask his supporters to vote for President Buhari.
It would be recalled that when President Buhari came to the state on his campaign rally, Sen. Ararume and hundreds of his supporters had welcomed him and his entourage at the Sam Mbakwe International Cargo Airport.
The former governor of the state, Dr Ikedi Ohakim and a former chieftain of the PDP, and now contesting on the platform of the Accord Party will most likely direct his supporters across the state to vote for the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar.
On the other hand, Governor Rochas Okorocha who is still in APC with his loyalists who are in the AA is expected to vote for President Buhari for the presidential election. Buhari would also have the support of the APC governorship candidate, Senator Hope Uzodinma and his supporters in the state. But from the way things are in the state President Buhari would not get the votes of the n- APGA members and their supporters who have allied themselves with the PDP.
Rivalry like no other in Jigawa
Recent happenings in the build-up to today’s election have indicated that the elections may not be without issues and challenges in some parts of Jigawa State.
Ahead of the elections, there have been pockets of clashes, especially during campaigns of the respective parties in the state, while the rivalry between the incumbent APC government in the state and the PDP has been going worse by the day.
The truth is that there are many die- hard Buharists in Jigawa State. They love him and they would rather settle for nothing without him. But by the same measure, there are many voters in the state also who believe in Alhaji Sule Lamido and the fact that his administration in the state was a lot better than their present take. Such people would swing their support for the PDP and its presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. All these dynamics would play out today in the state, with Buhari likely to emerge victorious, but by a narrow margin.
The likely flash points, investigation has revealed, will no doubt include Hadejia, an old, historical city of very influential personalities, which also doubles as home base of the incumbent Deputy Governor, Ibrahim Hassan.
Hassan will be contesting against the serving Senator representing the zone, Alhaji Ubali Shitu. Recall that Senator Shitu was formerly of the APC only to cross over to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). This means a tough fight for the man who is aspiring to replace him.
Apart from the stiff competition, which is only but certain between both gladiators, given their vast experience in political struggle, the people of Hadejia have an unenviable reputation of clashes during elections. In previous polls, Hadejia has always proven to be the most difficult area to manage in times of clashes.
Another possible flash point will be Birnin Kudu and Gwaram Local Government areas. The two areas happen to be the strong bases of major political actors such as the former Jigawa governor, Alhaji Sule Lamido, another former governor, Ali Sa’ad and the incumbent Senator of the area, Alhaji Sabo Muhammed Nakudu.
In the area, Alhaji Mustapha Sule Lamido, the son of Sule Lamido is contesting for Jigawa central senatorial position and his ambition will be characterized by the strong influence of his father. The battle between the parties in this zone, therefore, would be a crunch fight and might bring about flare-ups.
Alhaji Sule Lamido has never hidden his cold relationship with President Muhammadu Buhari. They are not political friends. And when Lamido’s prosecution by the EFCC is put into consideration, it becomes clearer that the former governor will take a huge delight in trashing Buhari in his zone.
Will there be upsets in Borno, Yobe?
The presidential contest in the Northeast Borno and Yobe states is undoubtedly between President Buhari and his arch-rival, Atiku Abubakar. For one, the presidential election in the two states today will be about persons rather than political parties. Voters said they would be voting for either Buhari or Atiku as against APC or PDP. Ironically, the two states have remained in one party -defunct All Peoples Party (APP) or All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP) which later transformed to APC, since the return to democracy in 1999.
A total of 3, 681,869 votes are for grab by the two leading presidential candidates in Borno and Yobe states. According to statistics of registered voters in the two states released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Borno has 2,315, 956 registered voters while 1, 365, 913 people were eligible to vote in Yobe. So who takes the highest votes?
In 2015 presidential election, the final results released by INEC showed that APC got 473, 543 votes while PDP scored 25, 640 votes. Curiously, the results were similar to that of Yobe. PDP scored 25,526 while APC got 446, 265 votes.
Atiku Abubakar hails from Adamawa State, a neighbouring and sister state to both Borno and Yobe-all in the family of Northeast zone. Ordinarily, this context should give the former vice president edge above his co-contender today but then, Atiku’s victory in these states remains a tall dream. This is because Buhari enjoys tremendous support in the two states.
Niger, the state of retired generals
As Nigerians go to the polls, Niger State offers a striking and unpredictable picture to political observers.
The APC’s presidential candidate, belongs to the same party with the governor, Sani Bello. But in another stroke, the PDP’s presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is an in-law to the governor. Atiku’s daughter is married to Suleiman Sani Bello, the immediate younger brother to the governor as a wife. This has left the governor in a dilemma. Or so it seems to pundits.
An indication that Atiku Abubakar is at home in Niger State was reiterated by the grand reception accorded him during his campaign visit to the state. Official vehicles were even assigned to convey dignitaries on his team from and back to the airport. In addition to this, after the campaign rally, all the big men in the entourage had their lunch at the residence of Nigeria’s former Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar, whose daughter is married to Governor Bello.
Against all these backgrounds, it will take an extra effort on the part of President Buhari and the APC to repeat the overwhelming success he attained in the state in 2015. The fact that they are both Muslims from the North makes the contest even more intriguing and less predictable.
Political analysts in the state believe that the candidate with the support of the Southerners resident in the state might carry the day. Recall that in 2015, the success of the APC in the state was largely necessitated by the absence of majority of the Southerners, who constituted no less than 30 percent of the voting population of the state. These Nigerians of Southern extraction fled the state in the build up to the polls due to the tension and threats that characterized the polls.
Battle for Adamawa, Atiku’s homestead
While Lagos and Kano States are reputed as key -swing states in Saturday’s presidential contest, Adamawa is no less of interest to political observers. It is one of the identified battlefields in the historical race, where the parties would surely contest for votes with all their hearts. It is the home state of Atiku – a man who has been a part of the political life of the state since 1999 when he assumed power as the Vice President of Nigeria.
But Adamawa State is also the home state of the First Lady of Nigeria, Hajia Aisha Buhari. Everyone knows Aisha Buhari well enough. She is an uncommon lady, vigorous, outspoken and frank. These features have endeared her to many, including voters in Adamawa State.
The emotion of the state in the presidential election would be cut between both ways: either to support their daughter whose husband is in the race to retain his exalted position as the President of Nigeria or to support a son of the soil, who is contesting the presidential race.
Whether by accident or design, the Buhari-led government has initiated a number of key and important infrastructures in Adamawa, much more than in any state in the North East. And this would matter to many voters, who would, if for nothing, love to see these projects completed.
Regardless of this factor, many voters would easily settle to have the president come from their state than to have projects initiated for them by a Daura man. In this regard, many would consider the candidature of Atiku even if they have nothing against the candidacy of their son-in- law.
It must not be forgotten that since the return of democracy in Nigeria in 1999, Adamawa State has always been a PDP state until 2015. The party slipped in that election following its own internal wobbles, thus letting the APC in the state to run away with victory. But since then, PDP has launched a comeback. It wants to return to reckoning.
The re-admission of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar into the party and his rise to becoming its presidential candidate have not been lost to the people of the state. The PDP governorship candidate, Umaru Fintiri, has earned enough trust and garnered a cross-cultural support line that would swing many votes to Atiku. For all these, the people of the state may want to reward their former darling party. But would the state governor allow the president, a fellow party man to be disgraced in his state?
Even without the governor who incidentally was once a student in Atiku’s political school, doing nothing, others would rise from the ashes for Buhari on Saturday. Buhari has a heavy chest in the former Lagos Military Administrator, General Buba Marwa, former SGF, Babachir David Lawal, the current SGF, Boss Mustapha, the former EFCC boss, Nuhu Ribadu, the current FCT Minister, Muhammed Bello, among others. It is tough to predict that these men would watch Atiku walk away with victory without a fight.
PDP and control of Enugu since 1999
Enugu State was one of the states, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) identified as crisis-prone areas that security agencies must place on red alert ahead of the 2019 general elections.
INEC had deployed the committee set up by INEC’s Electoral Institute to the six geo-political zones of the country, which mandate was to carry out a research on flashpoints that are likely to affect the smooth conduct and movement of election materials. The committee was also mandated to conduct a research on the perception of the commission.
However, the elevated interest in the elections had forced individuals and groups to start speaking out on the need to have, not just a credible, free and fair election, but one that is devoid of violence. What made this particularly instructive is the fact that the elections have continued to generate deserving international interest.
But not many were shocked when the INEC said the primaries conducted by the various political parties ahead of the 2019 elections, were the most rancorous in the history of Nigeria.
It marvels that Enugu, whose governor has enjoyed uncommon support across the length and breadth of his state is mentioned as one of the states of flashpoints that security must beam its searchlight. Governor, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi who is standing re-election in PDP has proven, time and time again that he is popular and on the ground especially, given the amount of support and endorsements he has so far received in his re-election journey.
The interest and heat being generated ahead, according to analysts may have been as a result of growing influence and stature of the APC, the main opposition party in the state.
Pundits believe that the 2019 general elections will be the first competitive election in the state since 1999, unlike previous elections where PDP was in charge at the federal and the state. The victory of APC at the centre in 2015 has since altered the political equation in the state following the APC’s victory; many chieftains of PDP in the state left the party in droves to APC. This has created a near balance of forces between the two leading parties in the country.
The state is however generally considered safe for the PDP and not much surprises could be pulled off there. The APC won’t give in easily though.
But political watchers are of the opinion that the romance of Governor Ugwuanyi with President Buhari may give the APC some votes today.
Besides, such bigwigs as the former Senate President, Ken Nnamani, former governor of the state, Sullivan Chime and others may also swing some votes to the opposition party in the state.
But many analysts believe that members of APC are banking on the election victory of President Buhari, to upset the stage in the state.
Ogun, tension everywhere
This state surprisingly has become one of the hotbeds of politics in this year’s general elections. Ordinarily, the APC would not have faced any major challenge in the state but for the crisis, which rocked its primaries leading to the mass defection of its members to the Allied Peoples Movement (APM).
The state governor, Ibikunle Amosun’s preferred governorship candidate, Adekunle Akinlade, along with his other loyalists, turned down all entreaties and dumped the APC which picked Dapo Abiodun as its flag bearer for the APM.
The height of the political crisis in the state manifested in last week’s APC rally in Ogun where President Buhari and other APC leaders were pelted by alleged angry members of the party.
Many argue that it is like history repeating itself in Ogun, as in the 2011 political drama which led to the defeat of the then ruling party, the PDP during the administration of Otunba Gbenga Daniel.
However, in today’s election, both the APC and the APM are likely to throw their weight behind President Buhari. Both the APC and the APM have enjoyed a good relationship with President Buhari who has told people of the state to support his re-election but vote for any governorship candidate of their choice irrespective of party.
Battle between godfather and godson in Akwa Ibom
There is no gainsaying that the oil-rich state would be a flash point in this year’s general elections. Many are anxiously waiting to see how the politics of the state would play out. Today is the beginning of the battle of relevance as the outcome of the presidential election will show.
Former governor of the state, Senator Godswill Akpabio and his former godson, Governor Udom Emmanuel will not take the battle lightly as a prelude to the governorship election on March 2. Even though Governor Emmanuel has done well in the state, many believe that today’s election will not be a tea party considering the fact that Akpabio governed the state for eight years. Whereas Akpabio will be battling to prove a point in today’s election, Governor Emmanuel will be all out to assert that Akwa Ibom is a PDP state.
In Kogi, it’s do-or-die
No doubt, in Kogi State, it is going to be a do -or -die for the APC and PDP. Already, there are reported cases that some politicians have recruited some Niger Delta militants, OPC boys while some have gone to recruit some deadly militias from the North and allegedly armed them with all manner of guns and dangerous weapons all in a bid to outwit one another in today’s poll.
Although, Kogi is known for political violence during elections, last year’s Lokoja/ Koto House of Reps bye-election where the state governor, Yahaya Bello and his cabinet members allegedly coerced the electorate to manipulate the will of the masses was an opener. Many believe that this time, the opposition may not want to be caught napping.
There are some towns that are notoriously noted for violence during elections spread across the three senatorial districts and the chief of all these is Ayingba town in Dekina local government area of the state.
This is because Ayingba is the central town that links all the nine local government areas in the Eastern senatorial district which is home to the Igala kingdom- the largest ethnic group in the state.
It is also the town hosting the state University where cultism and ritual killings are very rife. There were recent reported killings of no fewer than 10 people including students and they were said to be politically motivated.
Already, the APC office has been razed in Dekina with houses of members destroyed with many recorded deaths as the PDP was said to have fused to fight back the ruling party. Some other volatile towns in the district are Ejule in Ofu local government, Abocho and Ankpa which is the most populated town in the district and regarded as a Muslim dominated area which has soft spot for President Buhari.
In the central senatorial district- Ebira land -where the governor hails from, political watchers are of the view that the area must be closely watched, if the current rate of harassment and brigandage is anything to go by. Other towns to watch include Okene, Ihima, Ogaminana and Ajaokuta.
In the western senatorial district which comprises the Okun – Yoruba speaking area, Kabba is to watch as it is the stronghold of the PDP in the district, yet the Speaker of the State House of Assembly who is seeking re-election under APC is fully set to take over the town.
Also places like Egbe, in the Yagba west local government area and Isanlu in Yagba East local government area are also to be watched.
Lagos: Slim margin for APC
Lagos State with a voting population of 6.5 million, the highest in the country, will to a large extent be a determinant of who wins today’s presidential election.
It is a cosmopolitan state, and the commercial capital of Nigeria.
In 2015 presidential election, former President Goodluck Jonathan, the presidential candidate of the then PDP, scored 632,327, while Muhammadu Buhari of APC, candidate of the then opposition party polled 792,460, a difference of 160,133.
It has been the stronghold of APC. However, it may not be a tea party for the party this time around, even though members may not admit it openly; there is a crack, and the party has not been the same since its congresses that culminated in its primaries, that for the first time, saw the incumbent not allowed to go for second term in the state.
The first major rally of the party in the state at Ikeja, left behind trails of blood as the party’s foot soldiers fell against one another, leading to the death of two persons, and others seriously injured.
The influential Yoruba group, Afenifere was then in the forefront campaigning for the party in 2015 because, among other things the vice president is from Southwest, and the party had promised to restructure the country, which has been top on the agenda of the region right from the days of the late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo.
However, things have fallen apart and the group has turned its back against the ruling party because it has failed to carry out restructuring which it promised. It is now backing Atiku Abubakar, the PDP candidate, who has put restructuring on the top list of his manifesto. At the end of the day, APC may still carry the day, but the margin may not be as wide as it was in 2015.
Can Oshiomhole deliver Edo?
Today’s Presidential and National Assembly elections in Edo may not be as tense as the 2015 elections for two reasons. One, while in 2015, the contest was largely between two candidates – former President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP, a Christian from Southern Nigeria and current President Buhari, a Muslim from the North, today’s election is between two Fulani Muslims from the Northern part of the country.
This factor will remove the usual suspicion, between Christians and Muslims, which often lead to tension as was the case in 2015.
Unlike governorship election with high stakes, the National Assembly election is not likely to generate such interest for the electorate to engage in violence in a bid to elect their representatives.
If the experience of past elections is anything to go by, Edo State is not known to generate the scale of violence as often seen in some states.
All eyes will be on Edo to deliver enough votes for Buhari considering that Oshiomhole is the national chairman of the APC. However, it may not be easy considering that Edo has been a PDP state until the emergence of Oshiomhole as governor of the state in 2008.
APC battles hurdles in Zamfara
Despite the lingering crisis rocking the Zamfara state chapter of the APC, which has denied the party from fielding candidates for today’s National Assembly elections and March 2nd governorship/state assembly elections in the state, the result of the presidential election in Zamfara might from all indications favour Buhari.
But for Atiku, he called on the people of the state to have a rethink by not voting for the APC, which he said has failed the people of Zamfara and the country in general.
Buhari, Atiku lock horns in Plateau
No doubt, today’s election in Plateau State is going to be a two- horse race between President Buhari and Atiku Abubakar.
Buhari is enjoying full support of the incumbent governor, Simon Lalong, Minister of Youth and Sports, Solomon Dalung, Amb. Ibrahim Kasai, former Deputy Governors; Dame Pauline Tallen, Ignatius Longjan, Sen. Davou Jang, Sen. Joshua Dariye and a host of top APC chieftains in the state.
For Atiku, his campaign was led by Sen. Jonah David Jang, Amb. Fidelis Tapgun, former Deputy Senate President, Ibrahim Mantu, former Ministers; Damishi Sango, Sarah Ichekpe, Member, House of Reps, Edward Pwajok, Sen. Jeremiah Useni among others.
Atiku worked to outsmart Buahri in the state by making juicy promises that he would settle the perennial crises that have rocked the state.
Political gladiators across party lines have resorted to the grassroots where they mobilized voters with high expectations to coast home to victory.
Top among issues for the presidential campaign in the state was the insecurity that has bedeviled the state since 2001. The APC has boasted of providing relative peace in the state and vowed to consolidate on it if it returns to office.
But for the PDP, it believes that APC government has failed to secure Plateau people where several persons have perished as a result of herdsmen attack, leaving over 15,000 households displaced.
Benue as battlefield
Benue is no doubt a flashpoint state in this Saturday’s presidential polls going by what it had been through in the last one year.
Although, there are many parties fielding presidential candidates, the people of the state are largely going to cast their votes for Abubakar Atiku of PDP, President Buhari of the APC and Maj. Gen. John Gbor of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) who hails from Benue.
Recall that the state governor, Samuel Ortom had to defect from the APC to the PDP sometimes in July last year following what he described as a clarion call by his people to leave what he called the Miyetti Allah party (the APC).
After his defection, Ortom continued to work assiduously to ensure that his new party, the PDP coast home to victory in the state at all levels. But more interesting is the fact that politicians especially from the two main parties, the APC and the PDP are trying to use the Benue pogrom for their political gains.
During the APC presidential campaign rally held recently in Makurdi, the Benue State capital, leader of the party in the state, and former governor, Sen. George Akume mounted the podium and told the crowd that the Benue people have no problems with the Fulani.
Akume, who until last year, was Ortom’s political godfather went ahead to tell President Buhari that he was governor for eight years and the people of the state never had any problems with the Fulani.
In a nutshell, Benue State is highly polarized along APC and PDP party lines with each of the parties having its own retinue of followers who would do everything within their powers to ensure their preferred party comes out victorious in the presidential elections.
Many believe that there is likely going to be voter apathy because the electorate are afraid that violence may mar the elections in some parts of the state as supporters of the two major parties have continued to go about their campaigns with some air of threat.
In all, the presidential election is sure going to be a tough one in Benue but the PDP is most likely going to coast home to victory with a very close margin with the APC.
Moghalu, Yusuf Sani, fight on
Though many believe today’s poll is a two-horse race, the presidential candidates of the Young Progressives Party (YPP), Prof Kingsley Moghalu, his counterpart of the Action Democratic Party (ADP), Y.Y Sani and few other candidates have stood their grounds and are participating fully in the exercise.
Their boldness in the race is despite the fact that many of the presidential candidates have fallen by the wayside with the greater percentage of them supporting either President Buhari or Atiku.
Professor Kingsley Moghalu, a political economist, lawyer, former United Nations (UN) diplomat and founder of the Institute for Governance and Economic Transformation (IGET), recently returned home to Nigeria after orking globally to join the race.
Before he joined politics, he served as the Deputy Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria.
Many believe he is one of the best candidates in the race but competence is not enough in politics as he lacks the structure to make any substantial impact in the poll.
Also, the candidate of the ADP, Yabagi Yusuf Sani is also one candidate that is determined to finish the race even though it is most unlikely he has a chance against the two leading candidates.
One of Yabagi’s promises is to give youths and women 50 per cent slot in his cabinet when elected as the next President. Many also agree that the internationally recognized ADP flagbearer is also one of the best candidates in terms of educational qualification and competence but the qualities are not enough to win him today’s poll as his party lacks the national spread to garner enough votes.