When Winston Churchill, as British Prime Minister, told the House of Commons in 1948, “those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it,” he was emphasising the need to learn from past mistakes. For him, whatever one does and fails or regrets it, one should not repeat it, as doing so would amount to failing to learn from history.
Many leaders, institutions, governments and nations most times fail to heed this wise counsel. It could be as a result of ignorance. It could be they do not believe a mistake was made in the first place. It could also be out of arrogance or all of the above. We see this often in Nigeria.
In 2015, our governing political party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), did not announce its zoning arrangement ahead of the general election. The political party picked a North West presidential candidate (President Muhammadu Buhari) and a South West vice presidential candidate (Yemi Osinbajo). At that time, the South South geopolitical zone had produced the APC national chairman (Chief John Odigie-Oyegun). Other top political positions, like Senate President, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Deputy Senate President and other principal offices in the National Assembly were not zoned by the APC. However, close to the National Assembly’s inauguration in June 2015, the APC announced the zoning of the post of Senate President to North East and Speaker of the House of Representatives to the South West. It also announced Senator Ahmed Lawan and Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila as preferred and choice candidates for Senate President and House Speaker, respectively.
The nation saw the problem the APC decision or indiscretion caused in the National Assembly that year. Following a strong political block of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) members in the Senate, the APC’s wish could not be fulfilled. Senator Bukola Saraki (from North Central state of Kwara), a member of the APC not favoured by the political party, eventually emerged as Senate President, with Senator Ike Ekweremadu of the PDP (from South East state of Enugu) elected Deputy Senate President on the floor of the Senate. Senators who attended the inauguration of the Senate that year, made their choice and stood behind Saraki and Ekweremadu, against the APC choice of Lawan. In the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara became Speaker, against Gbajabiamila, who APC earlier favoured. The APC called it a coup by the PDP, in collaboration with some aggrieved APC members, and threatened hell. There has been turmoil in the Senate, right from then till now, but Saraki and Ekweremadu have survived moves to get them out of office so far.
Four years have gone, but the APC has done the same thing it did in 2015. The APC has, again, announced the zoning of the Senate President’s office and office of the Speaker of the House of Representatives to North East and South West, with Lawan and Gbajabiamila as preferred choices, respectively. Already, Senator Mohammed Ali Ndume from Borno, in the North East also, has kicked and has insisted that he would vie for the post of Senate President on the floor of the Senate, in defiance of the APC’s directive and choice. Other members of the House of Representatives have indicated interest to contest for the speakership, against the APC’s choice of Gbajabiamila. The battle line has been drawn for the coming Ninth Senate and House of Representatives. History has, therefore, repeated itself.
I do not see anything wrong with zoning of political offices. It is good for balance and fairness in the concentration/distribution of political power, especially in a country with diversities in language, culture and interest. If such a political arrangement or “doctrine of necessity,” if you like, is not made, there is the possibility that some zones in the country, going by their size and population, would lose out completely. If Nigeria, in future, gets a President and Vice President from the same geopolitical zone of the country, I wonder how the other zones and people would take it. Nobody should tell me about merit because history has shown that, in democracy, where votes determine who wins election, in the true sense of it, merit does not always count. Democracy does not really produce the best of leaders. Democracy is more of a popularity contest, not really consideration of merit, in the final analysis.
However, in zoning political offices, choice should not be narrowed to particular individuals. There should not be imposition or arrogance. Such a “take it or leave it” attitude would only alienate people and bring odium to those so chosen. Personally, I do not see anything wrong with Lawan as Senate President, but let his confidence be anchored on the support of 109 senators who would be inaugurated in June. By insisting that Lawan must be Senate President because this is what it wants, the APC is attempting an imposition.
Indeed, it smacks of arrogance for the APC to insist that chosen candidates must be Senate President and Speaker of the House of Representatives, without getting the buy-in of those who make up the National Assembly. It is even most annoying that APC national publicity secretary, Lanre Issa-Onilu, went to the ridiculous extent of declaring that PDP senators’ votes were not needed to determine who would be Senate President.
He had declared: “We don’t need a single vote from the PDP and, in any case, we don’t envisage any election on that day.” My question is this: Who told this APC man that there won’t be voting or that votes of PDP senators would not matter in determining the next Senate President? He is not God. He is not a senator now or senator-elect. Therefore, his sentiment or confidence would not count when the National Assembly is inaugurated. It is only 109 senators that would determine what would happen or who would eventually be their leader, irrespective of the APC’s expectations.
The incoming senators should be wise enough to know that they must determine the choice of their leader. The power is in them to so decide whether Lawan, Ndume or any senator for that matter would be their leader. This also applies to the House of Representatives. Therefore, Lawan, Ndume, Gbajabiamila and others who want to be Senate President or Speaker should know that their fate does not lie in the hands of the APC. Senators and members of the House of Representatives of APC, PDP, YPP (Young Progressive Party) or any political party would determine their fate. Therefore, they should not be carried away by the illusion that, since the APC has chosen them, that is the only thing they need to emerge as Senate President and Speaker of the House of Representatives.
However, I must say that, in zoning the offices in the National Assembly, the APC would be alienating Igbo senators and House of Representatives members if it excludes the South East from top principal offices. Some people have said to respect the tripod political structure in the country, the post of Senate President should have been zoned to the South East, since there is an elected senator of APC from the zone. Such a request is not unfounded. Irrespective of what anybody says about APC and the Igbo, the fact still remains that there would be an Igbo APC senator in the 9th Assembly. In 2015, the APC said if there were a single Igbo APC senator, the post of Senate President would have been zoned to the South East. Now is the time to make this happen.
However, if the APC thinks it is better to have the Senate President from the North, perhaps, to maintain past tradition, the political party should zone or concede the post of Deputy Senate President to the South East. Doing so would reassure the Igbo in APC that their contributions are recognised and that they can attain whatever height they want in the party or through it, in the country. Where this is not done, the APC will be consciously or unconsciously telling its members from the South East that their efforts and sacrifices are in vain.