By Chidi Obineche, Wilfred Eya and Romanus Ugwu
The race for the chairmanship of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC has taken an interesting twist with major interests in the presidential race digging in to produce the chairman. The fierce battle has seemingly taken shape in the last six days, oscillating oftentimes based on emerging real or perceived alignments and realignment.
The battle to foist a leadership on the party did not start today. To keep a hold on the party while bidding his time to take on the presidential race, former Lagos State governor and APC leader ignited it more than seven years ago. He produced Adams Oshiomohle, a former governor of Edo State as chairman after a deft simulated crisis in the aftermath of Chief Bisi Akande’s tenure.
Tinubu had calculated that Akande, who is one of his closest political associates, may be swept off the seat after the famous victory of the party in the 2015 general elections and began early to plan his exit and replacement with his understanding and cooperation.
He replaced him with Oshiomhole. Osiomhole’s tenure was short-lived following series of intrigues and crises which were believably orchestrated by the presidency. Not too certain of successfully winning a chairmanship race against a Tinubu’s surrogate at the time, the presidency moved to emplace a caretaker committee led by the Yobe State governor Mai Mala Buni, who would prepare the ground and plot the graphs for a chairman rooted in and sponsored by the presidency. With the numerical strength of Tinubu’s ACN (Legacy party) and Tinubu’s popularity and deep tentacles in the party, the plot has been a tough call leading to further crises and extension of the tenure of the Extraordinary Caretaker Committee beyond the initial one year.
The elongated tenure of the Committee is seen as novel in party management and administration in Nigeria and is at the base of the prognosis of crises that dovetailed into the forthcoming convention of the party.
The governors of the party in tandem with the presidency had earlier cast their lot on Mr.Tanko Al –Makura, who was Nassarawa State governor. His choice was a smart move suspected to have been brokered by Buni’s committee and tacitly endorsed by both camps (presidency and governors). He, too was Tinubu’s candidate. It was designed to cage Tinubu’s wings. Unrelenting, Tinubu has switched over to Senator Mohammed Sani- Musa, chairman, Senate Services Committee who is the strongest rival of Al- Makura in the race.
Though, Al- Makura is believed to have an edge over Sani- Musa based on the pedigree of his backing, his current corruption trial is an undesirable distraction and disservice to his ambition. Indeed, Tinubu’s initial support for the former governor had to be reviewed when his corruption trial became a campaign issue, and when he noticed the intrusion of the governors and the presidency to the candidate. Although Al -Makura may have received the endorsement of his successor, Governor Abdullahi Sule, the situation is fluid and may have changed following Tinubu’s switch to Sani- Musa.
The switch to Sani- Musa may have shored up the latter’s potential as the leading aspirant in the race, ahead of the party’s convention on February 26. Sule is one of Tinubu’s close political associates and the former Lagos State governor played a good role in making him governor. While endorsing Sule, Tinubu had assured him of the solid backing of the South- West caucus of the party and his scores of associates spread all over the country. A euphoric Tinubu said:
“The sacrifices of distinguished Senator Mohammed Sani- Musa for the All Progressives Congress in 2014/2015 will not go in vain, the leadership of the ruling All Progressives Congress are (sic) fully aware, inshaallah, he will be rewarded”. Tinubu has over 1,500 political groups which places him on a high pedestal to install a chairman for the party.
On the flip side, Kogi State governor, Mr.Yahaya Bello, who is a presidential aspirant too, is working hard on the party’s governors to stop the emergence of any chairmanship aspirant linked to or anointed by Tinubu. He and his allies in the APC governors Forum are working on a script made popular by the opposition PDP in October this year to seize control of the party machinery ahead of the 2023 general elections.
Tinubu’s influence in the party has been ascending in geometric proportions with many top party stalwarts floating his campaign organisations, even as the crises in the party festers. But among the governors, Tinubu is not having a smooth ride. Daily Sun learnt at the weekend that those not in his camp include Kaduna State governor Nasir El- Rufai, Cross River State governor Prof Ben Ayade, and their counterpart in Niger Mr AbubakarSani Bello. They go by the name “Integrity Alliance”, it was learnt, and they include Governor Simon Lalong of Plateau State, Abdulrahman Abdulrazak of Kwara, Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti and Gombe State governor, InuwaYahaya.
Those behind Tinubu are Babagana Zulum of Borno state, Abdullahi Gandudje of Kano and Aminu Bello Masari of Katsina. All the South West governors have already pledged their support for Tinubu and his candidate of choice. The chairman of the APC Governors Forum, Abubakar Atiku Bagudu of Kebbi State is not known yet to have taken a position on the contest.
Feelers within the APC circuit at the weekend also indicate a possible defection of some governors with presidential ambitions to the PDP if the chairmanship contest is adjudged by them to lack transparency. A concerned chieftain of the party from Adamawa State, Inua Mohammed told Daily Sun: “We are waiting for the Caretaker Committee to play Tinubu’s card in the race. Disenchanted politicians will leave the party in protest.
The party is yet to release guidelines and screen aspirants and efforts to reach the Extraordinary /Caretaker Committee on the developments could not pull through as Buni’s line rang out thrice.”
The Osibanjo angle
While Tinubu has been making extensive forays in his bid to put his Man-Friday at the helm of the party, the Vice – President, Prof Yemi Osinbanjo whose presidential ambition has been much touted appears indifferent. The presidency, also touted to be backing him is also keeping its plans close to its chest. Those sympathetic to Osinbajo’s presidential cause are worried that it may be too late in the day for a counter offensive against Tinubu if and when the vice president wakes up.
The situation has forced many people to believe that he may have thrashed his presidential ambition. But a source close to him told Daily Sun that the ambition is still “intact and alive”. According to the source, “he understands the high position he is occupying in government and will not start rollicking in the political mud this early. There is a time for everything.
The endorsement of his principal is more critical than jumping into the fray. There is order in government” Asked if his principal is truly behind his ambition, the source declined to give an affirmative answer. However, subsequent contact with a presidential Adviser who pleaded to be anonymous on the issue did not show much revelations beyond, the “the president will make his stand open at the appropriate time”.
The Race
Apart from the responses from the contestants taking renewed vigour with the proliferation of their posters, the list of the aspirants has continued to increase. At the last count, at least 11 chieftains of the party have indicated interest to wrest the position from one another.
So far, strong political figures like former governors, serving and former Senators, government functionaries among many others have shown serious interests in the race.
Notable politicians seeking the position include the former governors of Nasarawa State, Alhaji Tanko Al-Makura; Borno, Senator Ali-Modu Sheriff (SARS); Zamfara, Senator Kashim Shettima, Abdula’Aziz Yari; Benue, Senator George Akume and his Bauchi State counterpart, Isa Yuguda.
Others in contention are former and serving lawmakers like the Senator representing Niger East District, Mohammed Sani-Musa, Senator Danjuma Goje, former deputy national chairman of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Saliu Mustapha, Sunny Sylvester Moniedafe and Mohammed Saidu-Etsu.
From their pedigree, the aspirants are tested politicians, some of who have passed through the crucibles of political party administration in addition to holding political offices previously at various capacities both at state and national levels.
From Moniedafe, who promised to generate a whopping sum of N5.4 billion annually into the coffers of the party if elected the chairman in the forthcoming convention, through compelling party members to pay N100 monthly tax, to Ali-Modu Sheriff, who promised to reconcile the gladiators and restore unity in the party, each of the aspirants is promising to offer one thing or the other.
For instance, another aspirant, Saliu Mustapha said that one of his agenda is to introduce a new lease of life to party administration based on the experience garnered as the former Deputy National Chairman of the defunct CPC. He prides himself among the aspirants speculated to be having the strong backing of President Muhammadu Buhari.
The following are those positioning to lead the ruling party.
Abdul’AzizYari
A two time governor of Zamfara State and former lawmaker, Yari, is one of the founding fathers of APC and one of the most experienced chieftains that members can bank on for post Buhari’s party administration. He is a dogged go getter. Having fought and won many political battles, participated in the management of political parties before the formation of the APC either as a State secretary, DG Presidential Campaign Organisation or former Chairman, Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) among others, he has everything it takes to lead the APC.
Undoubtedly, only experienced politicians like him can lead the party to victory in the 2023 general elections and direct affairs of the party after President Buhari’s tenure. However, the maverick politician is a victim of the dynamics currently ravaging the party in his home state. Though qualified, he is at a crossroads over contending forces battling to redefine the trajectory of the party in his state.
Other hurdles Yari will have to contend with are his membership status with the party and the speculated zoning arrangement favouring North Central and the contention that CPC will likely produce the next chairmanship of the party coming from ANPP background.
Again, the entrance of Sani Shinkafi into the chairmanship race, believed to be sponsored by the state governor, Bello Mattawale, would form a serious cog in the wheel of progress to Yari. With all these factors, it is obvious that Yari has little or no chance in the race but in politics, it is not over until it is over.
Saliu Mustapha
A former national deputy chairman of Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Mustapha is among the youngest of APC chieftains jostling for the office of the national chairman of the party. Speculated as one of President Buhari’s anointed aspirants, the 50-year old Ilorin, Kwara State-born politician is highly favoured by critical APC stakeholders to refocus the party ahead of the 2023 general elections.
Mustapha, with a political experience dating over two decades, believes that he has the magic wand to foster unity and carry all members of the party as one family to deliver on the party’s campaign promises to Nigerians. Perceived as a crisis manager and troubleshooter, Mustapha strongly believes that various challenges facing the party are surmountable, even as he expresses optimism that those challenges will make the party stronger.
Sani Musa
If connection is all that is required to win the vacant seat, 54-year old lawmaker representing the Niger East senatorial district in the upper chamber should be coasting to victory. Judging by the volume of high-calibre chieftains of the party that have turned his house into a political pilgrimage, Senator Sani is at a vantage position to lead the party.
Fondly called, “Sani 313” by his political admirers, he is apparently believed to have the support of some strong forces in the party, especially the presidential aspirants that are already making waves across the country.
He may not have intimidating political credentials of former governors or ministers coupled with the doubt in the possibility of his Niger State governor endorsing him but the businessman-turned politician, stands out as one of the major contenders for the national chairman of the party.
A first-timer and serving senator, Sani made his foray into politics in 2017 when he contested for the governorship ticket on the platform of the PDP and lost. Fortune however smiled on him in 2019 when he was elected to the Senate to represent Niger East senatorial district on the platform of the APC.
Although zoning is in his favour, having come from the North Central but being one of those who defected from the PDP might count against him.
George Akume
As a two-term governor of Benue State and incumbent Minister of Special Duties and Inter-Governmental Affairs, Senator Akume is speculated to be on the radar of some of the APC governors to emerge the third substantive national chairman of the party. A distinguished Senator, many of his supporters see him as the most eligible aspirant to occupy the post of the exalted APC national chairman.
Akume, a former minority Senate leader from June 2011 to June 2015 believes time is now for the party to benefit from his wealth of experience. Though among aspirants enjoying the support of the president, in addition to zoning arrangements favouring him, Akume may face some challenges concerning his running battle with the anti-corruption agency.
Tanko Al-Makura
In every ramification, the former senator and governor of Nassarwa State, Tanko Al-Makura, could rightly be described as the favoured one among the major contenders for the job.
Apart from his speculated endorsement by President Buhari and many of the serving APC governors and major party stakeholders, the North Central zoning arrangement and legacy party consideration are equally in his favour. He is said to be one of two aspirants that some of the APC governors and the presidency have tipped to emerge as consensus candidate of the ruling party.
Al Makura is certainly among the last men standing from the defunct CPC legacy bloc of APC and seems to be enjoying such maximum support from those legacy parties that formed APC.
Apart from his recent encounter with the anti-corruption agency, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Senator Al-Makura is seen as a less controversial figure and top contender in the race.
As the only CPC governor at the time of forming the APC, having snatched Nasarawa from the jaws of the then ruling PDP in the 2011 general election, he is certainly one of the custodians of the APC brain box with the party’s DNA running in him. With a clear understanding of the vision and mission of the party, he looks every inch the man for the job.
Ali-Modu Sheriff (SARS)
In terms of wealth of experience, SARS is head and shoulder above other contenders for the position of the party’s chairmanship. Having been a two-term governor, senator and having occupied other elective and appointive political positions, his experience in party administration as the former chairman of the PDP, stands him out as the man for the job.
Among other aspirants, Sheriff can boast of a political network across the geopolitical zones in the country more than other contenders for the position. Again, with his war chest, clout and network, none of the other aspirants can match Senator Sheriff in terms of being a detribalised Nigerian. However, what will be his greatest undoing will be the zoning arrangement, the negative perception of his journey to the opposition party.
Although, in their individual determination to convince and woo party members that will form the bulk of the electorate during the convention, the aspirants have however approached the contest with caution, nursing fears that the cabal of the party may settle for a consensus option.
From their lofty agenda for the exalted position, it is obvious that they are good enough to pilot the affairs of the party if given the opportunity but beyond their haughty ideas, factors like agitation for rotation of the chairmanship position among the legacy parties that merged into APC and the contentious zoning arrangements of the national offices may equally play a deciding role.
The twin factors of zoning and rotation have been responsible for the cold war and undercurrents in deciding who emerges as the party’s national chairman. Resolving the conundrum of zoning for national offices has apparently been the bone of contention since it will determine which zone will produce the candidate of the party for the 2023 presidential election.
Little wonder it has been a serious source of concern to the party leaders and stakeholders, aware of the fact that failure to get it right in the zoning of national offices will spell doom for the party in the 2023 presidential election.
Although the party has unofficially zoned key positions, like the National Chairman and Secretary to North Central and South East respectively, other aspirants majorly from other zones in the North are still optimistic of clinching the chairmanship ticket.
Dismissing the speculated zoning arrangement, former governor of Borno State, Modu Sheriff, had argued that the proponents of zoning are the aspirants afraid of losing if the race is thrown open during the convention.
“Party is run by human beings; party is run by party leadership. The party leadership as of today has not even constituted any committee. They have to meet to even come up with a committee for everything – for the zoning, for the election, for everything,” he quipped.
Another factor to decide the direction of the wave in the contest will depend largely on who emerges victorious in the cold war between the legacy parties that merged into APC. In the calculation and posture of CPC members, since the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) has previously produced the national chairmen in the persons of Chief John Odigie-Oyegun and Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, equity and natural justice demand that it is the turn of the CPC to produce the next National Chairman.
However, beyond the zoning of the national offices and the battle ragging between the CPC and ACN, the choice and body language of President Buhari in addition to the endorsement by the presidential aspirants will not only influence the pendulum but also make the contest a won and lost one.
Only in December last year, there was social media report of the clash between loyal and disloyal APC governors over the national leader of the party, Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu, on the possibility of holding the convention or allowing the Caretaker/Extraordinary Convention Planning Committee (CECPC) to continue in office.
Similarly, there have been speculations on which of the chairmanship aspirants are getting the support of the various camps of the presidential aspirants. Fuelled by the visits to the presidential aspirants, several narratives and counter-narratives have been bandied around over the camps the chairmanship aspirants are leaning to.
However, beyond the camps, the interest of President Buhari and to an extent the Progressive governors will be the major decider of who becomes the national chairman of the ruling party when the chips are down.
Confiding in Daily Sun, a chieftain of the party, had argued that the chairmanship position will not be contested during the party’s convention, adding that since the aspirants want to be seen as being neutral, they won’t want to openly identify with any of the presidential aspirants.
“Stakeholders have conceded the position of chairmanship and national secretary of the party to Mr President. So, the reality on ground is that some of the key positions will be decided by consensus. Therefore, who emerges the chairman will depend largely on the choice of President Buhari not the backing of the various presidential aspirants or vote of the party members.
“Yes, we have seen some visitations among the chairmanship and presidential aspirants, but you cannot hear any of them openly endorsing each other because they know the implications of such action. Don’t also forget that the chairmanship aspirants want to be seen as maintaining neutrality, fearing that tagging themselves with any of the presidential aspirants might be counterproductive,” our source defended.
Understandably, the chairmanship aspirants have gone cold recently in the face of the uncertainty beclouding the February 26 date of the convention; it has, however, not stopped them from engaging in underground consultations to canvas for support.
Regardless of who is supporting which aspirant, the major decider will be the ability of the Caretaker Committee to religiously make a particular date sacrosanct since it is becoming very apparent that February 26 may not be feasible due to the bye-election already fixed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
“Let me tell you that the Caretaker Committee has little or no input to make in deciding the date for the party’s convention because they are only obeying orders from the major stakeholders of the party like Mr. President and the governors. So, it is wrong for Nigerians, especially the party members to think that the Caretaker Committee is deliberately trying to perpetuate itself in power, running the affairs of the party. The committee can only obey the last order from the powers that be. So, don’t blame the Caretaker for the delay to hold the convention,” a member of the CECPC confided in our correspondent.