SPECIAL REPORTS
From our reporters
Like a heavily pregnant woman gripped with apprehension over her fate until she is delivered, Nigerians have been anxious over the two aspirants out of the about 38 that will fly the presidential flags of the two major political parties, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for the 2023 election.
Such anxiety ends between this weekend and Monday next week, as the two parties hold their presidential primaries to choose their candidates.
Religious and ethnic sentiments; personalities, influence and money will shape the outcome of the party primaries. From our reporters across the country, six aspirants are top runners in the PDP. They are former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; ex-Senate President, Bukola Saraki; Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal; Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike and Bauchi State governor, Bala Mohammed.
In APC, there are also six front runners: Senate President, Ahmad Lawan; Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo; APC National Leader, Bola Tinubu; former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi; former Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu and Governor of Ebonyi State, Dave Umahi.
We bring you an incisive package of the aspirants’ standing on each state and zone. We have always hit the bull’s eye in the past with our reports.
Barring any consensus arrangement, this report represents the outcome of these primary elections.
PDP: How delegates will vote
Enugu: Wike tops, others follow
Enugu being a PDP state, it is expected that the leader of the party and governor, as usual in such cases will direct how the PDP delegates vote. If the body language of Gov. Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi should be taken seriously, then it might be safe to say that the Rivers State governor, Nyesom Wike will carry Enugu State’s votes. Observers say Gov. Ugwuanyi has not identified with any other aspirant, than Wike.
With Peter Obi out of the race, having pulled of of the PDP, it appears to be Wike”’s game. However, the Ike Ekweremadu factor cannot be ruled out. Since the former Deputy Senate President is not working with Ugwuanyi, having lost out in the governorship primary, it is expected that Bukola Saraki stands a chance in Enugu. It was Saraki that supported Ekweremadu to be Deputy Senate President in 2015, even when APC senators dominated the Assembly. Now is pay back time. It is expected that delegates sympathetic to Ekweremadu will support Saraki. Anyim cannot also be written off.
Barring unforeseen circumstances, however, Wike may get more votes than others in Enugu.
Imo: It’s dicey
In Imo State, it is going to be a tough decision for the delegates of the PDP to make. If he had not dumped the PDP, former governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi might have won more votes than the other aspirants. Abubakar Saraki, Governors Nyesom Wike and Aminu Tambuwal as well as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar will share the votes.
Kwara: Saraki all the way
Here, the home-zone advantage for Saraki is 100 per cent. It’s a no contest state. So other PDP candidates should not expect much from here.
Oyo: Delegates expected to follow Makinde
The sitting governor, Seyi Makinde, according to investigation, will really influence the presidential aspirant that all the 33 delegates from the state will queue behind. It is one delegate per each of the 33 local government areas of the state. Makinde is close to Wike and Governor Udom Emmanuel of Akwa Ibom.
Akwa Ibom: It’s Emmanuel 100%
The state governor, Udom Emmanuel will gather 31 votes from the delegates. Only Mr. Peter Obi and the former vice president, Atiku Abubakar went there to consult the party’s delegates. However, each of the delegates would not have a mind of their own, but do the bidding of the governor to either vote for him or whom he would align with.
Niger: It’s Atiku, Saraki and Bala Mohammed
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is expected to garner most of the votes, even though about eight aspirants visited the 98 delegates. Saraki and Bala Mohammed are also visible here.
Rivers: it’s Wike’s turf
The state governor, Nyesom Wike and presidential aspirant will ride on the party’s one family and loyalty. The party in Rivers State has remained a unified body and with the governor’s grip of the party’s structure, there is no doubt he would get bulk vote.
Kebbi: Delegates undecided
Delegates voting patterns will be the decision of leaders of the party. Atiku and Saraki might get most of the votes here.
Kogi: Saraki, Atiku on top
About 80 per cent of the delegates votes will be shared between Saraki and Atiku.
Ebonyi: It’s Anyim all the way
This is the state of the former Senate President, Anyim Pius Anyim. Delegates have also pledged to vote for him during the convention.
Ogun: Atiku, Saraki to slug it out
The Ogun State chapter of PDP is still enmeshed in intra-party squabbles. The reconciliation of the late Senator Buruji Kashamu and Ladi Adebutu factions seems to be just a window dressing. As at present, the party has two factional candidates in almost every elective position, with each faction claiming legitimacy.
However, the state delegates loyal to Adebutu may likely go for Atiku Abubakar, while the second faction may prefer former Senate President, Bukola Saraki.
Plateau: Ex-Gov Jang to influence votes
In Plateau State, Rivers State governor, Nyesom Wike because of his affiliation with the party leader and former governor, Jonah David Jang, and his support to the PDP in Plateau State, might make strong show here. However, some of the party faithful are working round the delegates to woo support for Atiku, Saraki and Bala Mohammed.
Abia: Wike expected to take majority, Anyim follows
Abia State governor, Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu is rooting for his Rivers counterpart. And Wike is expected to get majority of the delegates’ votes, especially since Peter Obi is no longer in contention. Anyim, being the other major South East candidate, hopes to get something.
Kano: Northern elders to decide
There are various litigations in the court between the Aminu Wali faction and the Shagagi led state executive. This situation has left a trail of confusion in the party. It’s impossible to know for sure where the pendulum will swing. A very credible source told Saturday Sun that a lot would depend on the choice of the Northern Elders, stressing that Northern delegates have always been well guided about who to vote for on occasions like this, which has huge implications on who governs Nigeria and in the interests of the North. Saraki and Bala Mohammed are northern consensus aspirants, selected nu Northern Elders.
Nasarawa: It’s Saraki, Wike and Atiku
It is crystal clear that the votes of delegates from the Nasarawa State could be shared among Saraki, Atiku and Wike, with the former Senate president having an upper hand because it is his zone; that is the North Central.
Saraki, once the chairman of National Reconciliation and Strategy Committee (NRSC), played a major role in fostering unity and cohesion in the state chapter of the party. This could be an avenue to repay his good gesture at the convention.
The former Senate president also enjoys the support of some critical stakeholders of the party like Senator Suleiman Adokwe, Senator Phillip Gyunka and Senator Solomon Ewuga; all would help in gathering delegates votes for him.
Meanwhile in the last few months, Governor Wike had also made tremendous efforts in swinging delegates through his close associate, Hon. David Ombugadu, while Atiku hopes for a surprise.
Ondo: Atiku, Saraki, Wike ahead
The cold war between the former governor of the state, Dr. Olusegun Mimiko and the governorship candidate of the party in the last election, Mr. Eyitayo Jegede is one major factor affecting the choice of presidential aspirants. To this end, the state chapter of the party may have their votes divided, as loyalists of Mimiko and Jegede who make the list of delegates will vote for the preferred choice of their leaders. It was said that Jegede was supporting former Vice -President,Atiku Abubakar, while Mimiko is supporting Governor Wike. Saraki is banking on his goodwill.
Delta: Saraki is on ground
In the last couple of weeks, the Delta State Government House, Asaba, has become a political Mecca of sorts, playing host to an array of presidential aspirants on the platform of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). But Dr. Bukola Saraki seems to be the leading presidential aspirant among ad-hoc delegates of the PDP in state. Besides, Okowa’s secret ambition to run as vice president to a northern candidate appears to have found more favour with the Saraki candidacy. Although, other aspirants might get a share of the delegates’ votes from Delta, their score would be insignificant to swing the pendulum. However, for Atiku, it is believed that his relationship with former governor, James Ibori, would swing a surprise, but most delegates appear not to be too comfortable with his age.
Benue: Aspirants might share votes
The relationship between the state governor, Samuel Ortom and the Rivers State governor, Nyesom Wike, as well as that between former governor, Gabriel Suswam and Akwa Ibom governor, Emmanuel Udom, will determine the voting pattern. Also, Ortom said a lot of good things about Saraki when the former Senate President met Benue delegates.
Osun: It’s Saraki, Atiku
The two factions of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have agreed to share the slots of delegates for the presidential primary. The two factions reached an agreement due to the intervention of the reconciliation committee. There is no doubt that the faction of the governorship candidate of PDP, Senator Ademola Adeleke, would be supporting Senator Bukola Saraki, because of his close relationship with the family. Adeleke openly endorsed Saraki when the latter met the state’s delegates.
The faction of Prince Dotun Babayemi is likely to support Atiku Abubakar because the former governor, Olagunsoye Oyinlola, who belongs to this faction, is likely to play a major role in the determination of the choice of candidate for this faction.
Edo: Atiku, Wike, Saraki to share
There are two factions in the party in Edo – the state governor’s faction and the faction of the South-South National Vice Chairmanship of the party, Chief Dan Orbih, following from the crisis rocking the party in the state. Obaseki’s faction is said to backing Atiku Abubakar while Orbih’s faction is supporting Wike. Saraki is banking on his goodwill.
Kaduna: Still open
For Kaduna PDP national delegates, it appears they will pull their weights behind the most appealing aspirant. Recent receptions accorded various presidential aspirants that came canvassing for their votes for the primaries showed the direction they would take. Nothing is given yet, but it is believed that Saraki, Atiku and Bala Mohammed might share the spoils.
Borno: It’s Atiku and Bala Mohammed
The PDP delegates are working on regional loyalty for Atiku Abubakar and Bala Mohammed, who are from the same North-East Zone. Sources also said money has huge influence on the preference of Atiku, who allegedly released funds to support the party in the state.
Anambra: It’s Saraki and Anyim
With Obi out, Anambra is for Saraki. It was gathered that most of the delegates are from the structure of a former governorship aspirant who recently rejoined the party and has sympathy for Saraki. Anyim may reap from Obi’s absence being the other South-East candidate in reckoning.
Cross River: It’s Wike, Emmanuel, but Atiku may get something
Wike is said to be a household name in Cross River PDP, as he has been the pillar behind the party and its leadership. It was learnt that Wike has been the financial backbone of the party since the defection of Governor Ben Ayade to APC since last year. He’s likely to get most of the votes here. However, Gov Emmanuel and Atiku will also get some votes. Atiku has close relationship with former governor Liyel Imoke, who is the party leader.
Bayelsa: All eyes on Gov Diri
Governor Douye Diri will ultimately determine where the national delegates from Bayelsa State would vote. He is somehow close to practically all the northern aspirants – Bala Mohammed, Aminu Tambuwal, Atiku Abubakar and Saraki. The same way he enjoys a robust relationship with Governor Emmanuel Udom of Akwa Ibom.
Lagos: Between Saraki, Atiku
PDP delegates in Lagos will likely pitch their tents for Saraki and Atiku .
Sokoto: Tambuwal’s exclusive zone
Sokoto State governor, Aminu Tambuwal, who is also a presidential aspirant will pick all the votes from the delegates.
Adamawa: All for Atiku
This is the state of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. No ticket will fall for any other aspirant.
Gombe: Atiku, Mohammed share votes
Delegates will share their votes between Atiku Abubakar and Bauchi State governor, Bala Mohammed.
Yobe: Atiku is comfortable
Atiku Abubakar will maintain a comfortable lead, but Mohammed, Saraki will scratch some votes.
Jigawa: Tambuwal, Atiku, Mohammed
Aminu Tambuwal, Atiku Abubakar and Bala Mohammed will share votes.
Taraba: Atiku in control
Atiku Abubakar is in control here
Zamara : Tambuwal holds the ace
Sokoto governor, Tambuwal has no one to contend with.
Katsina: Atiku is on ground
Atiku Abubakar is ahead of others here.
APC: How aspirants stand
Enugu: State party leaders to decide.
It is expected that the direction the delegates will follow will be decided by the state leaders of the party. Though the leadership and delegates of both parties have been receiving presidential aspirants, there is nothing to show where the interests of the delegates lie.
Imo: Lawan holds the ace
It’s going to be an easy ride for Senate President, Dr Ahmad Lawan, as the Imo State governor, Hope Uzodimma has not hidden his support for him. It is expected that the governor would apply all the machineries of government and strong support he is having from above to push Lawan to the finishing line.
Kwara: For Tinubu, Lawan, Osinbajo
Tinubu might get a large chunk of the votes from the state. The governor and leader of the party, Mallam AbdulRahaman AbdulRazaq glowingly spoke of his efforts in the Otoge struggle, which assisted the party to win the 2019 elections. Some delegates might also go for Lawan and Vice President Osinbajo.
Oyo: Osinbajo, Tinubu, Fayemi will share votes
The votes of all the delegates from the pace setter state may be divided majorly among three of the presidential aspirants – Vice President Yemi Osinbajo; Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and Ekiti State governor, Dr. Kayode Fayemi.
Akwa Ibom: Akpabio’s fortress
The votes will go to Godswill Akpabio, who is considered the leader of the party in the state. Apart from vice president, Yemi Osinbajo, no other APC aspirant has bothered to come to the state for consultation, thus leaving the field for Akpabio as the net beneficiary of votes from the state.
Niger: Lawan, Osinbajo, Tinubu to share votes
No fewer than six presidential aspirants on the platform of the party have met with the delegates in Minna, the state capital. The votes of the Niger State delegates might be shared among Lawan, Osinbajo and Tinubu.
Rivers: Amaechi, Tinubu battle for votes
The APC in Rivers State has since been factionalized between Amaechi and Senator Magnus Abe. The latter’s loyalists will most likely cast their votes for Bola Tinubu. So, the voting strength of Rivers delegates at the presidential primaries is likely to be shared between Amaechi and Tinubu.
Kebbi: The governor to decide
Despite the few presidential aspirants that have been in contact with the delegates and party chieftains, many people still believed that who the delegates will cast their votes for would be finally decided by the state governor. The main reason is that the delegates are loyalists of the governor.
Kogi: Bello’s turf
Since the governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello is one of the aspirants; it is likely that he corners the votes of his state.
Ebonyi: Umahi all the way and Onu
The state governor, David Umahi is an aspirant. It is expected that he will get the votes here. Former Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation, Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, is also from the state. With the factionalization of APC in the state, the votes will be split between Umahi and Onu.
Plateau: Amaechi on top
Delegates from the APC will likely cast their votes for Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi because of his relationship with Governor Simon Lalong, the APC party leader in Plateau.
Lalong had declared the support of Plateau delegates to Amaechi when he stormed Jos last week to interface with the delegates to woo their votes.
Ogun: Osinbajo, Tinubu to share votes
The party delegates were carefully and strategically ‘elected’ to ensure those loyal to the incumbent governor, Dapo Abiodun, made the delegates list. This step, according to a source within the party, was to ensure party members loyal to the immediate past governor did not make the list of the party faithful that will produce the presidential candidate of the party. Governor Abiodun made it clear when the vice president, Professor Yemi Osinbajo visited Ogun that the state would give him maximum support at the convention. However, Tinubu cannot be ruled out as some of his political associates had hand in making Abiodun governor.
Abia: Lawan, the man to beat
While it is not totally clear who among the presidential aspirants the state delegates would vote for, the Senate President, Ahmad Lawan could be the sure candidate. This is as a result of the tacit support the Senate President has been getting from the Senate Chief Whip and former governor of Abia State, Dr. Orji Uzor Kalu since he declared interest in the presidential race.
Kano: Gov might
The delegates are very loyal to Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and most certainly, would vote for whosoever he chooses. From all indications, his vote is for Bola Ahmed Tinubu and they would vote in the same direction.
Nasarawa: Tinubu on ground
Delegates that would attend the convention from Nasarawa State are loyalists of the former governor, Tanko Almakura. Almakura is a strong ally of Bola Ahmed Tinubu who recently visited the state in continuation of his meeting with delegates at the Government House, Lafia It is very clear that all delegates’ votes may all go to the former governor of Lagos State.
Ondo: Delegates yet to decide
There is no clear indication yet on the presidential aspirant delegates from Ondo State will support, as the leader of the party in the state, Governor Rotimi Akeredolu was said to have remained quiet in giving direction to the party members across the state.
Delta: Cose to call between Lawan, Amaechi, Osinbajo
Amaechi’s loyalists in Delta State will vote for him, while loyalists of the Deputy Senate President, Ovie Omo-Agege, who is the leader of the party in the state, will go for Lawan. Osinbajo hopes to reap from goodwill.
Benue: Delegates still waiting for order
The leader of the party, Senator George Akume has not shown any preference for any presidential aspirant, and that is making it difficult for the party to take a position.
Osun: Tinubu is it
The delegates are substantially for Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. They did not hide this during the meeting with the Vice President, Prof Yemi Osinbajo, as some of them put on caps with the inscription of Tinubu’s logo.
Edo: Tinubu gets lion’s share, while Osinbajo picks the rest
Bola Tinubu looks good to get the support of most party delegates. The backing of former governor of the state and ex-National Chairman of the APC, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole and other strong political leaders in the state, would come handy to make this possible. Vice President Osinbajo who also has the backing of another former governor of the state, Prof. Osarheimen Osunbo, is likely to be runner-up to Tinubu.
Kaduna: Tinubu, Amaechi, Osinbajo share votes
When Vice President Osinbajo, Bola Tinubu and Rotimi Amaechi visited the delegates at different times in Kaduna, the delegates pledged to vote for each of them. As it stands, the three aspirants would share the votes from this state.
Borno: Lawan, Osinbajo, Tinubu to grab the votes
The 81 delegates votes will be shared among Lawan, Osinbajo and Tinubu. However, Amaechi may get very few ‘compensatory’ votes.
Anambra: Lawan, Umahi’s citadel
The delegates shall be voting for Lawan with Andy Ubah as strong factor. The links of Senator Orji Kalu in the state will also swing it for Lawan. However Ebonyi State governor, David Umahi, will get some votes as people of the South East believe that 2023 is their time to produce the country’s president and would do everything within their powers to make it happen.
Ekiti: Fayemi all the way
Gov Fayemi will no doubt get most of the votes here. A few might be left for Tinubu and Osinbajo to share
Cross River: Lawan on ground
Governor Ben Ayade, the leader of the party, seems disposed to be working for Sen. Ahmad Lawan, who was said to have tacitly supported Ayade in his struggle to ensure that Senator Steven Odey was not thrown out of the senate chambers.
During Lawan’s visit to Cross River, the governor assured the Lawan team of at least 80 per cent of the delegates votes.
However, Amaechi and Osinbajo would battle for the remaining votes.
Bayelsa: Unsure
In Bayelsa, with the Minister of State for Petroleum and former governor of the state, Chief Timipre Sylva dropping out of the Presidential race, the delegates of Bayelsa are up for any of the presidential aspirants.
However, there is no love lost between Sylva and Amaechi so it is very certain that Sylva would do everything including ensuring that Bayelsa delegates do not vote for Amaechi to stop his presidential aspiration.
Lagos: Tinubu fully on ground
It goes without saying that Tinubu will get all the votes of the delegates
Sokoto: Lawan is ahead
Senate President Ahmed Lawan is very comfortable
Yobe: 100% votes for Lawan
This is the state of the senate president. No vote will fall for any other aspirant.
Gombe: Lawan, Osinbajo share votes
Delegates will share their votes between the senate president and the vice president
Adamawa: Lawal is comfortable
Lawal will maintain a comfortable lead, but Osinbajo, Saraki will scratch some votes.
Jigawa: Lawal, Osinbajo, Tinubu shear votes
The senate president, vice president and leader of the party will share votes.
Taraba: Lawan is in control
The senate president is absolutely in control
Zamfara: Survival of the fittest
Katsina: Buhari to direct
President Muhammadu Buhari has to direct the way to follow.