By Omoniyi Salaudeen
Another intriguing power play that is going to shape the future politics of the Yoruba in the Southwest is about unraveling.
It is about the looming face-off between the National Leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and his estranged political son, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo.
Preparatory to the presidential primary of the party, the two titans have found themselves tangled up in an impending slugfest which some pundits have already predicted could be a re-enactment of the leadership tussle between the premier of the defunct Western Region, the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, and his political associate, the late Samuel Ladoke Akintola, which culminated in operation wetie in the Southwest in 1962.
For the sake of clarity, Tinubu and Osinbajo are not about to go into any physical warfare. But as leaders, both of them need to manage their supporters in a way that would not escalate their political differences.
This is particularly imperative as loyalists on both sides are already embroiled in an exchange of brickbats, name-calling, accusations, and counter-accusations of betrayal. The trend, some concerned elders warned, could snowball into spontaneous violence if the situation was not properly managed.
In the days of Asiwaju Tinubu as the governor of Lagos State, the erudite professor was the Attorney-General and Commissioner of Justice in the state. And, of course, his brilliant performance still remains a reference point to date. The media are replete with several landmark cases Lagos State had won against the Federal Government in those turbulent days when former President Olusegun Obasanjo wanted to subdue Tinubu at all costs for creating additional local governments and other sundry reasons.
While the face-off lasted, Osinbajo stood firm behind his boss like the rock of Gibraltar.
With the turn of events in the run-up to the 2015 general elections, Osinbajo earned the admiration of the stakeholders in the new alliance that coalesced into the emerging APC and got nominated as the running mate to General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), the then candidate of the APC in the presidential election.
In Nigeria’s political culture, Asiwaju is Osinbajo’s godfather to whom he owes an allegiance for bringing him into political limelight.
But much as one would have expected that symbiotic relationship to continue like Tom and Jerry, this time around, each has to fight his battles on his own.
That’s simply the message Osinbajo sent to his former boss when he made the declaration of his interest to vie for the office of the president in the coming 2023 general elections.
In his declaration at the State House on Monday, April 11, in a video that went viral, Osinbajo said: “I formally declare my intention to run for the office of the president, Federal Republic of Nigeria, on the platform of our great party, the All Progressives Congress.” He thus put paid to months of speculations, hesitation, and tepid denials of his ambition to be president.
But with that declaration, Osinbajo has wittingly set the stage for another intriguing power contest that may likely shape the future of Southwest politics.
Already, some tempestuous ones among the Yoruba supporters of the two titans have started tearing one another apart, describing the declaration as a betrayal of trust, immoral and unjust.
According to the schedule of activities released by the APC, the presidential primary will hold between May 30 and June 1. On the D-day, Tinubu and his estranged former political appointee are going to lock horns. Although the race is crowded by an array of aspirants like the former governor of Abia State, who also doubles as the Chief Whip of the Senate, Dr. Orji Uzor Kalu, Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, former Anambra State governor, Dr Chris Ngige, Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi, his counterpart in Ebonyi State, Dave Umahi, as well as the erstwhile governor of Imo State, Senator Rochas Okorocha, many political pundits in the Southwest see the contest as a straight fight between Asiwaju and Osinbajo.
And on that basis, a lot of emotions, permutations, and all sorts of possibilities have dominated political discourse among the Yoruba people of the Southwest. This is more so with the conviction in some quarters that the party’s ticket would come to the South.
The Ekiti State Coordinator of SWAGA-Southwest Agenda for Asiwaju-Senator Anthony Adeniyi (SAN), said this much in an interview with Sunday Sun:
“My thinking is that presidential ticket will come to the Southwest because it is a question of the constituency that can provide the largest votes for the party to win. If you zone the presidency to the East, where do you get the votes? It has already been demonstrated. It was the combination of the Southwest and the North that elected President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015. Buhari needed Southwest to become president. It was that realization that compelled Buhari to link up with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu in order to become president.”
Strangely, the emergency NEC meeting of the party held, Wednesday, failed to make any categorical statement on the issue of zoning. Regardless, a number of factors will surely come into play in the election of the standard-bearer of the party. Presumably, these may include such important considerations as a network of alliances, age, the health status of aspirants, governors’ influence, as well as president’s succession game plan, among others. Thus, just like the recently concluded national convention of the party which had generated so much anxiety within the fold, the proposed exercise for the choice of the candidate for the 2023 presidential race also appears destined to be another exciting scenario to watch.
In terms of alliance, no one can undermine the strength, enormity, and formidability of Asiwaju’s political structure.
As a shrewd political strategist who has his eyes on the exalted seat, Tinubu had over the decades built a network of friends, associates, and political allies across the six geo-political zones of the country before this latest power adventurism.
From Lagos to the far-flung Northeast to the Northwest, South-south, and Southeast, there are several state actors who are always at his beck and call. Given a free and fair contest, he could be the ultimate winner of the ticket.
Again, no one can take the credit away from Tinubu that he was instrumental to the political alliance that culminated in the formation of the APC without which Osinajo could not have emerged as the vice president in 2015 in the first instance and subsequently in the 2019 general elections.
However, one major snag in his ambition to lead the country is the issue of his health status.
Whether or not his health condition is strong enough to carry the burden of the office of the president remains a matter of debate in the polity. What is not in doubt is that Nigerians want a healthy president who will be available to lead the country out of the woods.
A renowned unionist, Chief Frank Kokori, speaking with Sunday Sun on this matter, said: “Tinubu is my friend, he is capable. The only thing is that it’s long I saw him and I wouldn’t know if his health can carry the burden of leadership. If he feels his health is good enough for it, then he is good to go.”
Apart from the health concerns, there has also been noticeable decimation of the machinery of support for Asiwaju’s aspiration in recent times. The evidence of this can be seen in the seeming conspiracy of silence among his powerful men like the former governor of Lagos State and Minister of Works, Babatunde Fashola, his counterpart in the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Rauf Aregbesola, Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti State, Ondo State’s Rotimi Akeredolu (SAN), among others.
Some prominent Yoruba leaders of thought like Ayo Adebanjo have also not hidden their disdain for the over-arching ambition of Tinubu to be the president. All of these may give him a setback in the quest to pick the ticket of the APC in the coming primary.
Speculation is also rife that some governors within the APC fold, who hold the grudge against Asiwaju for snubbing them when they intervened in the face-off between him and the ousted former Governor Akinwumi Ambode of Lagos in the buildup to the last general elections, might want to use the coming primary to take their own pound of flesh.
This is in spite of the expectation of reciprocal gesture being expected from President Buhari whose ascendancy to power in 2015 was at the instance of Tinubu’s political dexterity. Of course, successor-grooming is one of the hallmarks of responsible leadership. But so far, Buhari has not indicated a preference for any of the aspirants among the array of contenders seeking to succeed him.
And his body language does not speak much in favour of Asiwaju, his benefactor, either. By his antecedent, he may possibly spring a surprise. In that event, supporters of the National Leader of the party may have no choice, but to make good their alleged threat to pitch a tent with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) as part of plan B, which could then be the final straw that would break the camel’s back. If that happens, the chance of APC retaining itself in power would be in jeopardy.
Senator Adeniyi was, however, quick to dismiss the speculation, saying “whoever is insinuating that is doing it for himself. He has not discussed that with any of us his followers.”
As for Vice President Osinbajo, one strong factor that might likely work in his favour is the advantage of vibrancy of his youthful age.
Owing to the current experience Nigerians are going through under the administration of President Buhari, there is now a preponderance of opinions in favour of a younger, vibrant, visionary, and cerebral candidate. Osinbajo combines these sterling qualities.
But on the flip side, he has disadvantages of lack of formidable structure, accusations of religious prejudice as well as the comprehensive failure of this government in all fronts to contend with in his campaigns to succeed his boss.
Senator Adeniyi, while reacting to Osinbajo’s recent declaration, dismissed his ambition as no threat to Asiwaju’s aspiration, declaring that “he is not the best person who can redress all misdeeds the present government has foisted on Nigerians.”
His words: Osinbajo only has a vaulting ambition that he wants to actualise. And Asiwaju is fully prepared for it. He is an octopus in the political field.
“I don’t see him as a threat to Asiwaju because he is not a politician. We are expecting him; we are waiting to see where he would start from. He has no political structure to muster votes. So, his ambition will have no effect on Asiwaju because he has gone far ahead. He has covered enough political mileage both in the South and the North. With things on the ground, Asiwaju is too big for him to challenge.
“I think as a religious man that he professes to be, he should have considered the moral side of the whole thing before pursuing his ambition. Whatever is the case, it was Asiwaju that discovered him and brought him to the limelight. He had his hands in his emergence as vice president because if Tinubu had insisted to be vice president, Buhari would not have had enough courage to go ahead with his nomination as his running mate.”
Another chieftain of the APC in Ondo State and Pro-Chancellor of the Adekunle Ajasin University, Dr. Tunji Abayomi, in a similar emotion, said: “Even from the standpoint of anthological thinking, should he run? A lot of people have been asking that question. We are not saying that politics is played on the basis of morality, but it is played on decency and dynamics of relationship, it is played on appreciation or lack of it. The vice president is part of this government, what has the government done? Is he strong enough, tall enough to run the race? We are not talking of local elections here. When you are talking of running for an election, you talk of serious business. Do you think anybody who is going to beat Asiwaju Tinubu can be a Lilliput?”
However, when Sunday Sun contacted Senator Babafemi Ojudu, the presidential adviser on Political Matter, for comment, he declined, insisting that he was not going to grant an interview.
Nevertheless, the battle line has already been drawn and only time can tell where the power pendulum with ultimately swing to.