We are in a week and season to persuade Nigerians to believe in Nigeria again. Truth is, no date can be more significant in the life of a nation than the day it broke all fetters of colonialism, joined the comity of truly independent nations and become completely free to take its destiny in its own hands. That’s why October 1, defines Nigeria and what its leaders and citizens have made of their country. The date also signposts a profound shift in the country’s evolution as a sovereign state.
Looking back, looking forward, in content and character, Nigeria at 61 provides at least two pieces of evidence – one offering a positive of a liberated country, yet hemmed in by its own shortcomings and poor leadership. That is why, in the days ahead, climaxing on Friday, a surfeit of opinions will be out there in the media and other platforms, on how a country that had, at independence, everything going for it – human and natural resources, but has squandered the opportunity to be great, and now searching for heroes and true federalism. What an irony! The other piece of evidence, perhaps more troubling, is that hope is fading in Nigeria. The fault lines that divide us have become more evident than whatever is left that hold us together.
But make no mistake about it: Anniversary of a nation’s independence goes beyond pomp and celebrations. It’s often a moment of sober reflection, a time to look back and forward, of ambitions, of hope and aspirations fulfilled and missed, of thoughts of the vision of the founding fathers, whether that vision had been realised or derailed. No surprise, in the next few days, these thoughts, these reflections, combined with prayers, will take place across the country, in churches, mosques and other fora, to mark 61 years of nationhood. At 61, we should be wise, not foolish. Wisdom demands that we count not the years, but the life we live and the experiences we have had.
Sometimes, a combination of history and fate, leaders and qualities of leadership meet at an intersection to shape a turning point in a nation’s unending search for freedom for its citizens and the development of the country. Nothing creates more bitterness than promises made and not kept. At 61, Nigeria could be likened to a nation celebrating a rich past and a lamentation of a fading future. To be sure, at Independence 61 years ago, Nigeria apart from Ghana, was regarded (and fittingly so) as the beacon of hope to other African countries. It was no surprise that our abundant human and natural resources made our country to be regarded as the ‘Giant of Africa ‘. Today, many will argue with enough facts, that we are no longer respected in the comity of nations. That’s exactly what former Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, and deposed Emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, said last week. He said the concept of Nigeria being the “Giant of Africa is now a deceit”. Which explains why our citizens have been shabbily treated in other countries.
Nigeria’s Independence ushered in a new era that showed good promises. Perhaps the most significant indicator of this early promise of a bright future could be found in the progress recorded in some key sectors, especially in economic development. For instance, in 1962, Nigeria introduced the First National Development Plan. This was projected to last till 1968. The focus of the plan was on investment, industrialization and education. It had anticipated an annual growth rate of 4 percent and savings, and investment both rising steadily at 15 percent per annum. Undoubtedly, this was an ambitious plan for any country, for any government that sincerely wanted to achieve economic self-sufficiency. During this period, every region had a great comparative advantage of certain commodities it had chosen to make its own. Manufacturing, food processing, mining, crude oil production also increased significantly. Enough data supported this steady economic growth. Crude oil production grew from a modest 46,000 barrels per day in 1961, to 600,000 barrels per day in 1967. Others were the manufacturing sector which grew from 3.6 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 1960 to 6.2 percent in 1966, mining from 0.9 percent of GDP in 1960 to 4.8 percent by 1966, and the distribution sector from 9.1 percent to 14 percent in the same period. The diversification of the economy also led to the decline of the agricultural sector from 63.4 percent to 55.6 percent. Overall, the economy improved steadily at an average rate of 5 percent between 1963 and 1966. Real per capita income also rose from N48.1 in 1960 to N53.8 in 1965. In today’s economy and currency value, this is huge in terms of standard of living of an average Nigerian.
Looking back, Nigeria has come through thick and thin to where she is today. The country has gone through the colonial experience, experimented with parliamentary democracy, survived a civil war, fallen in and out of the iron-fists of military adventurists, stumbled back on the path of democracy, this time, the presidential system. It took the collective resolve of most Nigerians, irrespective of religion, ethnic group or geopolitical zone, and the blood and tears of some patriots before the ship of state was wrested out of the stranglehold of military rule. But the questions to ask are: why is the glass still half-full and half-empty? In other words, why has Nigeria remained in this miserable state in spite of the early signs of a bright future post Independence? Is it in our stars or on our leaders? Or is Nigeria proving too hard for the present crop of political leaders to govern? There are no quick answers to these questions. Never since after the civil war has Nigeria been as polarized as it is today. As many concerned Nigerians have said, it is largely due to poor leadership. That’s what you have when you have accidental leaders, leaders who never prepared for the office. That’s what I call “waka just pass” leaders. Waka just pass are leaders who leave no lasting impressions, no worthy legacies. They just come and inflict unforgettable pains on the people. They leave the country worse than they met it. That’s where we are now. Nigeria needs thoughtful, intelligent and imaginative leadership. But we are not getting none of it. Politics demands that those who seek high public offices should, of necessity define themselves in such a coherent manner that the people should know where they stand on critical issues that matter to the citizens. A deep reflection of where we are now comes with broken hearts, extreme poverty, hunger, unemployment, unprecedented inequality and disease. 61 years after independence, latest NBS data shows that Nigerians are poorer than ever. Poverty rate has moved from 15 percent in 1960 to 50 percent in 2021. Experts say rising poverty is the main cause of the present insecurity in the country. A closer look at how empires fall, how economies of nations that had a bright future suddenly began to fall, it begins with telltale signs, and warnings unheeded. It begins with debt explosion, slow growth and high spending that is not in proportion to revenue earnings.
Look at the statistics: Nigeria’s debt stock as at August this year was N35.5trn. Of this amount, N22.89trn was accumulated by the present administration in six five years. Domestic debt exposure accounts for about 70 percent of the total debt. Debt servicing is taking a sizeable portion of government budget, 1.8trn in 2017, N2.1trn and N2.2trn in 2018 and 2019. Government has also said it will spend 3.5 trn of the 2021 budget on debt servicing. The current budget has a deficit of N5.6trn. For every N1 earned, 68k is for debt servicing. And there is no end in sight to borrowings. According to latest statistics, in six years of the present administration, our national currency has depreciation by 209 percent. With the economy growing at less than 2 percent of GDP, it shows government policies are not working. Also, statistics from the Nigeria Export-Import Bank (NEXIM) show that the country lost N3.6trn to non-oil exports over the past five decades. Taken together, the pain of how we came this far, 61 years of nationhood, troubles the mind.