By Sunday Ani
Ahead of 2023 general elections, offices and facilities of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), across the country, have come under heavy attacks, particularly in the South East and South-South geopolitical zones.
In the last couple of weeks, many INEC offices have been attacked and razed by a group of hoodlums that has notoriously assumed the slogan ‘unknown gunmen.’ The development has raised concerns in some quarters, with many saying that the fate of the 2023 elections hangs precariously in the balance if urgent steps are not taken to halt the unfortunate trend.
The fear was, last week, confirmed by the INEC chairman, Professor Mahmood Yakubu, who warned that if the trend was allowed to continue, it could undermine the commission’s capacity to organise elections, and that it would impact the electoral process negatively.
Analysts argue that what started like a child’s play in late 2019 has gradually assumed a threatening dimension such that in the last couple of months, over 20 INEC offices have been attacked and completely burnt down in the south East and South-South zones of the country alone.
On Monday, May 24, INEC offices in Anambra, Enugu and Imo states, respectively, were burnt down in what seemed like a coordinated attack. More INEC offices have equally come under devastating attacks since after the May 24 incident in the two zones, fuelling strong speculations that the development might have a political undertone.
Although nobody has been able to clearly establish the reasons behind the attacks on the INEC offices, speculations are rife on the possible reasons behind the development, with varying schools of thought pontificating on it.
One of the conspiracy theories is that the attacks are being sponsored by those who don’t want the South East zone to produce the next president after President Muhammadu Buhari. The people who expressed this sentiment argue that the game plan is to cause confusion in the South East so as to create an impression of a volatile zone security-wise and possibly declare a state of emergency there.
But the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) does not think so. The party would rather accuse the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), of masterminding the attacks because the ruling party was afraid that Nigerians would reject it in 2023 polls. But, the APC has violently countered the allegation, describing it as senseless and reckless, even as it alleged that the PDP’s penchant to destroy democratic institutions was well documented.
However, Professor Yakubu’s argument seems to be in tune with those who said one of the implications of the attacks is that in the affected places, the commission would not have offices where the staff will stay to carry out their electoral duties. “And it is a setback in those locations because all those INEC offices you find in the 774 local government areas in the country signify the presence of INEC in those places and they serve those communities,” they argued.
There is also a strong sentiment in some quarters that the attacks are being carried out by those who have lost confidence in the electoral umpire’s capacity to conduct free, fair and credible elections. But, some other people have equally argued that no matter the anger or level of provocation, it should not be directed at the INEC offices because at the end of the day, it would affect those communities directly.
Yet, there are those who argue that even though the attacks may not totally stop INEC from its operations but it would definitely be difficult to conduct elections in those places. This, according to them, is because INEC would have to make an ad hoc arrangement. “In those places where these offices are being burnt, it will be difficult to conduct elections. It won’t stop elections from holding in the areas because even in crisis-ridden countries, elections still hold. But, it will be more convenient to have all the facilities in place rather than making ad hoc arrangements to conduct elections.
“If you have a convenient place for the officials to conduct elections, it will be good for the process but where you don’t have offices as in the case of the places where they have been torched, you are likely going to be using tents or caravan and that is not the best at all,” they argued.
Again, some other people are of the view that what INEC ought to do as a matter of urgency is to establish the rationale behind the attack and bring an end to it. “INEC must find out why people are attacking and burning its offices, confront the problem and deal with it. It is INEC’s major responsibility to stop it and not to find a way around it,” they charged.
One of those who believe that the attacks have a political undertone is the former governor of Anambra State, Chief Chukwuemeka Ezeife. He strongly believes that some people have some designs to ensure that elections don’t hold. “Some people don’t want a president from the South East extraction and they are causing all kinds of problems. But I have earlier said that neither the sponsors, nor the bandits, are from the South East; they are from outside the zone. They are brought to give the impression that members of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) are the ones creating problems in the East. You are aware that the military and the police have their bases in the South East and South-South and our young men are being treated so badly as if they are not citizens of Nigeria. I don’t know what to say other than to pray to God that all those designs against the South East and South-South will fail,” he stated.
However, the National President of the Middle Belt Forum, Dr. Pogu Bitrus is among those who attribute the attacks to anger emanating from loss of confidence in the electoral process.
“The attacks simply indicate that people are not confident in the electoral process. The people may be feeling that elections are not transparent and it does not represent what they do at the polling stations. It is an indication that there is disaffection in the whole electoral process,” he stated.
He reiterated his calls for electoral reforms in such a way that the electoral process could be done electronically. He said: “Much of the rigging that happens during elections takes place during the transmission of results. The results are doctored during transmission. So, we want the National Assembly to be proactive in this regard. Let the Electoral Bill be passed. Let the accreditation results be forwarded electronically to the server; it will cut out all the middlemen called the returning officers. Let the result at the end of the day when voting ends be transmitted electronically to the server so that everybody will know that it has not gone through somebody who has doctored anything. And the fact that accreditation is also transmitted, shows that it is the actual number of voters who voted that has been counted and recorded and not the inflated number. I think if the electorate know that this is the case, nobody will attack the INEC office.”
He stressed that the attacks serve as a wakeup call for the INEC and National Assembly to do the right thing, warning that there would be no election if all INEC offices are destroyed. “If they don’t do the right thing, they are the losers as there will be a lacuna when their tenure ends, because if all INEC offices are destroyed, there will be no election. So, the earlier they save the country, the better for all of us,” he warned.
Former General Secretary of the National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas workers (NUPENG), Frank Kokori believes that destroying INEC offices amounts to destroying the fabrics of democracy, and by extension, democracy itself.
He also described the unknown gunmen carrying out the attacks as mad persons as there is no justification for their dastardly acts, but wondered why the INEC offices should not be properly protected after the first attack. “The government should protect the INEC offices. I don’t know what is happening to the Nigeria security agencies that every ragtag group can just take over spaces in Nigeria. These are ragtag terrorists and the whole security agencies can’t take care of them. Nigeria is becoming a different country from what we know. It is so shameful,” he lamented.
The Coordinator of Ijaw Monitoring Group (IMG), and environmental activist, Comrade Joseph Evah, also agreed with those who see the attacks as moves to deny the South East the presidency in 2023. He equally expressed disappointment with the political leaders in the South East for allowing such an evil plan to pull through.
“The implication is very clear; those sponsoring the attacks don’t want the South East to produce the president and they are just laying the mines. They have just laid the foundation for justification and it is very sad that the South East leadership cannot manage the problem. It’s pure sabotage of the 2023 demand by the South East. I don’t know why the governors and leaders cannot see the game plan clearly. And they have fallen into the trap because the situation is increasing and getting worse by the day,” he said.
Similarly, Evah disagreed with those who think that the attackers are not from within the zone but from outside. He placed the blame squarely on the people of the South East, saying, “How can you say you are fighting for a republic and you are destroying your own people; where has it happened?”
He believes that the silence of the presidency over the development is calculated and well orchestrated to ensure that the zone does not have the moral stand to seek support from other zones for the 2023 presidency. “What is happening has a political undertone and the simple implication is that the South East will lose the 2023 presidency. The presidency has kept quiet and allowed the madness to continue so that the South East will not have the moral right to demand for presidency in 2023. The situation is so bad. We believe in the South East producing the next president but if they are not ready, it will go to the South-south or Southwest,” he noted.
Evah also believes that such attacks on INEC offices might affect the 2023 election; even as he expressed fears on the ability of the government and INEC to guarantee an atmosphere of security when the elections eventually take place in 2023, since they could not guarantee the safety of INEC facilities in the country.
National chairman, Social Democratic Party (SDP), Chief Supo Shonibare thinks that apart from lack of confidence in the electoral process, pervasive insecurity and economic downturn could be among the reasons behind the attacks on INEC offices and even on the police formations.
“Free and fair elections are only possible in a stable polity. We have been having organised submissions of votes and suppression of votes in Nigeria. The amendments to the Electoral Act have been kept in abeyance because the ruling party is fearful of the consequences of its effects on their electoral fortunes. The pervasive state of insecurity and economic downturn, which we must not forget, had permeated the polity even before the pandemic, taking their tolls on the populace, with the sense of distrust and hopelessness in the ability of the ruling party to take any corrective action on the two critical functions of governance- security and economic management.
“The lack of capacity for any panacea is getting even more self- evident. When the state is unable to reflect the yearnings and aspirations of its populace, non-state actors take over territories,” he stated.
He blamed the incessant attacks on INEC offices on those who have made democratic change impossible. “It is self-evident that the frustration of the people is leading to unpredictable reactions. While we must condemn violence for any political cause, those who make democratic, peaceful change impossible are the ones fanning the ember of violence. Our constitution is incurably defective. We have to restructure before any future election. The President and the National Assembly must rise up to meet their responsibilities. They are presiding over a failing state,” he cautioned.