By Cosmas Omegoh

 

In Nigeria’s political history, indeed, last Monday’s night was another long night. Many – young and old – found themselves firm in the throe of tension, watching and waiting with bated breath as the epic All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential primary was underway. 

Anxiety hung overhead, looming large like the proverbial Sword of Damocles while the contest, another one in the series dubbed  “obscenely monetised” progressed. Many on the night did not sleep, and never wanted to. They all had their eyes on the ball, hoping to miss none of the night’s proceedings.   

But about when the Tuesday morning sun rays were piercing the eastern skyline, something official had happened. Former Lagos State governor, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Jagaban Borgu, was on the way to winning. He was tearing away from the pack like a consummate sprinter pressing home for the coveted prize.  It was only a matter of minutes before he won. And he did indeed pulled 1,271 votes to defeat his closest rival, Rotimi Amaechi and his estranged political godson, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo.  

With Tinubu becoming the standard bearer of the APC in the 2023 general election, he appears to be a little distance away from realising his life-long ambition of becoming president. But that will only be if he crosses the last hurdle: winning at the presidential poll. But to fight the fight of life he must – against formidable opponents: Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Alhaji Rabiu Kwakwanso of the New Nigerian Peoples Party. This is not forgetting and discountenancing the cult figure, Peter Obi of the Labour Party, who is   assuming the character of a movement. 

Meanwhile, analysts have been reviewing the build-up, the optics – and the gamut of events that culminated into Tinubu’s primary election victory.  

One of Tinubu’s acolytes insisted that his success was not by mere happenstance, declaring  that it was the outcome of his principal’s political sagacity, astuteness, and undying desire to govern. 

He said that Tinubu’s big ambition began to gather pace when he helped to birth the now ruling APC way back in 2014. It is still in the air that he was to be made the vice president then. But his party was afraid that a Muslim-Muslim ticket in a Nigeria with its ethno-religious nuances would be a hard sell. He was thereafter handed the consolatory APC national leader, an office that was not in the party’s books. 

Nevertheless, Tinubu remained faithful to APC even when the rumour mill had it that the party’s gentleman’s agreement that would see presidency going South after President Muhammadu Buhari was about to be jettisoned.

Now, that Tinubu has emerged APC’s man on the block, his many traducers vilify him for looking away while the fire of the all important “restructuring” agenda raged. Tinubu¸  then a true champion of fiscal federalism which he then parroted and even acted out during the Olusegun Obasanjo days as president, went numb. He shied away from the issue. Some say he only wanted to be “politically correct” so that he would not ruffle the feathers.  

But give it to the Jagaban. About 2020, he seemed to have been the lone fellow clear on what he wanted, and had begun marshalling out steps toward realising it. Recall how he went ahead to launch his South-West Agenda for Asiwaju (SWAGA) to kickstart his ambition. At every step, he remained dogged even when the wave of opposition against him kept rising.  

Tinubu’s outbursts and perceived uncomplimentary remarks in the days and months leading to the Abuja dog fight on Monday have left his friends and foes – and political pundits – with a handful to chew.

Sensing that he might be played out, Tinubu had declared his intention to “fight dirty” should any conspiracy against him arise.  This was counted against him.

But indeed, an indication that Tinubu was not the favoured one seemed to have emerged when his “political son” Vice President Osinbajo threw his hat deep into the ring, declaring to run for president.  

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Tinubu and his Bola the Ahmed Tinubu (BAT) organisation had gone for Osinbajo’s jugular, labeling him a “betrayer.” A vividly livid Tinubu could not stomach Osinbajo’s effrontery. At every turn, he brushed aside the vice president’s constitutional right to gun for the highest office in the land, focusing more on primordial issues. To him, Osinbajo was simply an audacious fellow, who committed a mortal sin by going against the grain of reason and good conscience eyeing the same apple his master dearly desired.

At the moment, argument about the morality or otherwise of that move remains unending. Everything about it depends on the side of the divide the individual falls.

Critics say Tinubu’s approach to becoming Nigeria’s next president comes with a certain sense of entitlement. Again, this is subject to loads of argument.

But while his army of supporters believe that in politics, all is fair, its opposing counterparts agree to the contrary.       

In Abeokuta in the closing days of his delegates-wooing tour, for instance, Tinubu was quoted as declaring that it was “my turn” to rule Nigeria. He went to reiterate making Buhari the president, Osinbajo, the vice president, and Dapo Abiodun, the governor of Ogun State, a remark that did not go down well with many Nigerians, including the Presidency. It is still trending, although he  had recanted and rallied to make clarifications. But what he said he had said.

Like or loathe the Jagaban,  he remains ingenious. Check out his sagacity in rallying that groundswell of support that swayed victory to his side. Analysts are still pondering over what Tinubu promised the APC governors in the North before they agreed to play ball. It is not for nothing.   

But some observers are insistent that the Tinubu victory will come with a huge price, but he Tinubu and the South might not know that yet. That North’s interest, not party interest – to keep Presidency in the North in 2023 after Buhari – will soon play out. They want Tinubu and the South not to be deceived. The same governor, they say, will urge the horde of pliable electorate to vote the opposition when the chips are down. And only then it would be clear to all that what seems to glitter might be tinsel after all.

For a Nigeria that has suffered unmitigated leadership disaster over the past seven years, strident voices are rising, saying that Tinubu’s health is doubtful. They cite his demeanour at the last convention. They are wondering if Nigerians will indulge another ailing president like Buhari.  However, Tinubu has insisted that he is articulate-minded, and clear in his thoughts. Perhaps, only time will tell.

On the attitude and relationship scale, not many will agree that the former Lagos State governor scores high marks. They will point to his occasional outbursts. One of such was against his opponent, Dr Ahmad Lawal, who he allegedly said he would ordinarily not greet, ostensibly for also betraying him by running against him. Then he went on to ask him to go lick his wounds, a remark some people find uncomplimentary for a presidential hopeful.

But his declaration afterwards that he appreciated those who supported him, and had forgiven those who sabotaged him, that he was prepared to see the latter, seemed to be face-saving.   

Many believe that fighting perceived enemies at a time like this is off the mark. Not for one who would soon be approaching the grassroots for votes – that he needs to make no enemies going forward.    

Born on March 29, 1952, Tinubu is an accountant. After working in the corporate environment for years, he joined politics and was elected senator of Lagos West Senatorial District in 1992 on the platform of the defunct Social Democratic party (SDP).

Tinubu was a member of the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) under whose umbrella he campaigned for democracy.

Married to Senator Oluremi Tinubu, he served as Lagos State governor between 1999 and 2007.