By Ikeogu Oke
THAt President Muhammadu Buhari’s concern about power supply is genuine is beyond doubt. In fact, electricity is such an essential need, arguably more than petrol. Need I buttress this by recalling how the seeming inability of former President Goodluck Jonathan to keep his promise to provide regular electricity to Nigerians became one of the major campaign issues raised against him in the 2015 presidential elections that brought President Buhari to power?
Thus, it was not surprising that, right from his inaugural speech, President Buhari identified power as one of the four cardinal concerns of his administration, together with corruption, insecurity and fuel scarcity. “At home we face enormous challenges,” he admitted in that epochal speech delivered on May 29, 2015. “Insecurity, pervasive corruption, the hitherto unending and seemingly impossible fuel and power shortages are the immediate concerns. We are going to tackle them head on.”
The fact, however, is that even with this vow to tackle these problems “head on,” the power challenges have lingered ten months into the Buhari administration, despite recent improvements in power generation and supply witnessed under his administration.
So, it was not surprising that during the National Economic Council retreat held in Abuja on March 21, 2016, President Buhari, represented by Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, reiterated his administration’s concern about power.
At the event, the President began by acknowledging that Nigerians’ favourite talking point and butt of jokes is the power situation in our country, and then admitting that “it is no longer a laughing matter.” Then he made a vow: “We must and by the grace of God we will put things right.” And then the assurance: “In the three years left for this administration, we have given ourselves the target of 10,000 megawatts distributable power. In 2016 alone, we intend to add two thousand megawatts to the national grid.”
Mr. President also identified privatisation as an issue in the litany of concerns.The power sector, he noted “has been privatised but has yet to show any improvement in the quality of service. He however revealed that we are facing the classic dilemma of privatization: Public interest Vs Profit Motive,” and then gave the assurance that, “Having started, we must complete the process.”
He also identified other issues undermining progress in the sector, their causes and their negative impact as “constant power cuts destroying economic activity and affecting quality of life,” High electricity bills despite power cuts, and low supply of gas to power plants due to vandalisation by terrorists, as well as obsolete power distribution equipment such as transformers.”And in a near-summary in which he invokes God for the second time in the short speech, the president admitted that these are some of the problems, which defied successive governments.
However, there are problems arising from the President’s words which require critical attention. First, his promise to add 2,000 megawatts to the national grid in 2016 alone does not clarify to what baseline generation value the addition would be made. Is it to the 4,387 megawatts the generation value reportedly rose to by May 5, 2015, or to the 3,857.4 megawatts peak generation value on the day of the retreat? Clarifying this, while giving a specific value of expected total generation following the addition, will eliminate a seeming nebulousness to the President’s promise.
Clearly, it wouldn’t be progress if, for instance, we add 2,000 to the 2,035 megawatts to which the generation value reportedly dropped on March 27, 2016, which would amount to a total of 4,035 megawatts, given that our generation output had hit a record 5,074 megawatts on February 2, 2016, under the Buhari administration.
Incidentally, the President has promised to provide more or less as baseline “distributable power” in the three years left of his administration, being 10,000 megawatts, is unambiguous.
Then, the President actually denied his administration credit, apparently without knowing it, by stating that the power sector “has yet to show any improvement in the quality of service” since its privatisation – an exercise successfully concluded by the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) in 2013 with the sale of the successor companies of the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) to successful bidders as private investors.
Now, the peak power generation value witnessed in the country prior to the privatisation of the power sector was about 2,800 megawatts. As mentioned above, we have generated up to 5,074 megawatts under the current administration, which amounts to an additional 2,274 in the post-privatisation era. And with this additional generation value came improved hours of electricity supply to which many Nigerians could attest but which, unfortunately, has not been sustained as reflected by current realities.
So, the privatisation of the power sector may not be a problem, though some vested interests would rather call it a bad name to enable them hang – or reverse – it for selfish gains, even if it means distorting facts and misleading the president and the rest of us to boot. It is, however, reassuring that the President has pledged to “complete the process.”
The government’s penchant for propaganda and discrediting the past – as reflected in his “these are some of the problems, which defied successive governments…” remarks – have degenerated into such self-degrading prejudice that it has failed to recognise that its generating 5,074 megawatts was progress that happened after the privatisation of the power sector, together with the attendant, albeit short-lived, improvement in power supply nationwide.
In fact, President Buhari’s real problem should be to reclaim such progress, improve on it and make it sustainable. I believe he can achieve this if he applies the right remedies to the current problems he identified in the power sector at the retreat, about which he was largely right. And while he seeks to apply those remedies, we must continue to support him, wish him good luck, and exercise patience with him.
•Oke was a Technical Adviser (Media and Communication) in the Presidential Task Force on Power (PTFP).