Cabals, by the reputation carved for them by largely maliciously jaundiced ethnic critics, are a political interest group with the unwritten focus of scheming for their purported supporters in their part of the country. More like a secret cult group, members of the various cabals in different parts of the country are rarely specifically known except on assumption as a result of political influence or power they wield, supposedly, in the interest of the people but, in reality, only for the enhancement of personal interests. Any mandate of the people?
There lies the irony, as they operate under the facade of the larger community. The only disturbing aspect is that through virtual monopoly of positions on public issues, at the mere mention of mafia, the focus shifts at only one part of the country. It has become more of cheap blackmail, especially to the unwary. But in reality, every part of Nigeria with its major political interest group has its mafia, West, East, North, Niger Delta and even northern Christian minority. All these cabals take decisions and announce their political self-centredness as the wishes of their people.
With eyes on 2023, these cabals are getting set for their political civil war under the guise of zoning or no-zoning of the presidency, their battle cry. For now, it is North versus South.Even in the South, two of the zones, East and West seem prepared to throw their hats into the ring, each against the North. Nigerian political groups are ever amusing, especially when they choose to stand on their heads. Already, brickbats are flying all over.
Somehow, and perhaps unknown to them, both zonists and anti-zonists have seeming strong and self-depreciating points. If, for example, competence should be the strict criterion for the presidency, the same capability should strictly apply for elevating lawyers to the rank of Senior Advocates of Nigeria. In Britain, such appointments, as well as that of Prime Minister, are based mainly on merit. The Lord Chief Justice takes appointment strictly on merit rather than manipulated quota system. Deliberately manouvered even if unstated almost fixed zoning could only explain the appointment of majority of chief justices of Nigeria from one part of the country since Independence, not forgetting the posting of army officers as chief of army staff on zoning from a particular section of the country, while others from another part of the country mainly as chief of defence staff. And if competence were strictly to be the criterion for chairmanship of Economic and Financilal Crimes Commission, the job, since its inception in 2004, could not have been to the total exclusion of five zones in Nigeria.
Yet, truth is bitter. Today’s zoning agitators lack any moral. If North reneges on zoning (which is not advisable), it will be normal in the scheme of things, except perhaps failure to learn from the recent past. In plain language, in the past, North had been conned on matters of zoning. Following the national political crisis of the annulment of the June 1993 presidential election won by Bashorun MKO Abiola, it was obvious that some agreement had to be reached for reconciliation in the country. Hence, the first zoning agreement, which kept northerners out from contesting the 1999 presidential election, to make way, with the massive support of the northern voting bloc, for General Olusegun Obasanjo. What followed was the first blatant breach of zoning agreement. Obasanjo and Yoruba mafia, without any consultation with or mandate of the people, insisted that Obasanjo, in the name of South-West, must serve the two terms stipulated in Nigerian Constitution. The North was helpless, especially with memories of the political bitterness which brought the man into office.In effect, against the unwritten agreement that he would serve one term, Obasanjo, (in effect, South-West) served the second term. The only surprise was that Obasanjo seized the opportunity to dislodge the Yoruba mafia from power except in Lagos State.
In a further breach of that agreement, which enabled him to serve the second term, Obasanjo manouvered a fake constitutional conference with which he proposed a third term, which, in fact, under a new constitution, wouldn have been argued by his lawyer to be the first of three terms of a new constitution. In short, Obasanjo planned to be President for life. From 2007, the new tenure would have taken Obasanjo to 2019. I had to, in this column, alert the National Assembly under the patriotic Senate President of the risk, if they ever fell for the fraud. Fortunately, they voted out the so-called amended constitution.
President Umaru Yar’Adua succeeded Obasanjo but died in office in less than three years. The fate of Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan Goodluck created a new zoning problem. That in itself gave birth to the Ijaw cabal pursuing his cause to be sworn into office even before Yar’Adua died. When, eventually, Yar’Adua died, the Ijaw cabal rightly assumed power and postponed the showdown till 2011. That row was in itself unnecessary since Jonathan would by that time be completing the deceased President’s first term. Logically, in another major concession to the Ijaw cabal, it was verbally agreed that the presidency should remain zoned to South-South till 2015. When the moment came, Jonathan and Ijaw mafia breached the zoning agreement, demanded any agreement he ever signed to that effect and insisted on contesting the presidency.
That breach of the zoning agreement was unacceptable to the northern bloc of PDP, which then broke away and dissolved in the new APC blessed with the sole raving presidential candidate of the moment. Muhammadu Buhari was one of six northern candidates who vied for APC’s presidential ticket and he won, up to Aso Rock, in a landslide. By 2016, even though Buhari was re-elected, cracks had started to emerge in the APC.
Can these cracks be plastered to expect re-election in 2023? There was no specific agreement on zoning in APC but it was most unlikely that opposition parties dissolved into APC to merely perpetuat northern candidacy for the presidency. It would also be wrong to assume that northern voting bloc could win an election for any northern candidate. First, not every or any northern candidate could have the Buhari winning stroke. What is more, Buhari himself, all alone, won the election only on a fourth attempt. The unwritten zoning formular earned him victory. Should there be a crash on the zoning issue, the remnant lopsided APC may not be re-elected.
If only because of his part of the country, Mamman Daura (has) incurred the wrath of southern politicians, elite and self-designated intellectuals/progressives in opting for competence as the sole criterion for picking APC presidential candidate in the future. Southern mafia should have been gracious enough to embrace Buhari’s nephew as a latter-day convert to the idea of competence as the only criterion for picking presidential candidates. Nigerians must recall that orginal critics of zoning were southern elite/intellectuals who claimed that zoning would breed mediocrity. That is what Mamman Daura is merely echoing. Or have the southern mafia changed their view on zoning and why?
Briefly, in 2018, Buhari offered the 2023 APC presidential ticket to South-East zone. Ohanaeze, on behalf of South-East openly rejected the offer on the ground that their preference is restructuring. When and why was the change of mind to demand the 2023 presidential ticket? This will be fully discussed in future.
South-West cabal are even in a worse situation on the zoning issue. They seem to be in disarray. And the signal is from the pioneer acting national chairman of APC, Chief Bisi Akande. In an interview with a weekly paper, Chief Akande was blunt and unrestrained. According to him, “Only democracy can make any democracy great. Zoning, federal character and all such jargons will continue to compound Nigeria’s problems. APC has no zoning in its constitution. I want the best, highly well informed, and well-meaning person to lead me under any setting. I was lucky to have learnt under Obafemi Awolowo and Bola Ige. They both easily tolerated and would never go ahead until all arguments were exhausted. My experience with uninformed leader was devastating. All debates lead to quarrel and all opposing opinions are misconstrued for disloyalty and resulted in enmity. Under uninformed leader, democracy metamorphoses into dictatorship and public oppression. We debated a lot and all the time in the APC Interim National Executive Committee of which I was the national chairman. All of us remain best friends within our party today. Honestly, I do not support zoning.” Such rare bombshell from a disgusted Bisi Akande.
Whichever way APC goes on zoning is fraught with existential consequences for the party in 2023, especially depending on the zone of rival PDP’s presidential candidate.
Courageous Ogun State governor
Governor Dapo Abiodun has just emerged ideal man in that position, very bold and self-assertive, who would not allow himself to be intimidated. Not long ago, Senator Buruji Kashamu, at least the governor’s acquaintance if not political associate, died. Within an hour and perhaps minutes, Governor Abiodun received an unsolited letter with uncomplimentary contents gloating over the sad event and mocking the deceased.
Well, Governor Abiodun has since made his position known in a showering tribute to the memory of late Buruji Kashamu on the eighth day prayers. Describing the deceased as a rare gem, Governor Abiodun, in a full-page newspaper public notice, which he personally signed, testified that the late senator, “A political strategist and an uncommon philanthropist has gone back to his creator. Your humane disposition, and kind-heartedness and courage will be sadly missed. May the Almighty forgive your mortal sins, grant you eternal rest and give unto your family, business associates the fortitude to bear the irreparable loss.”