The Rome-based Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance forecasts the novel coronavirus epidemic in Italy to end by May 5.
The institute’s epidemiological scenario is based on an algorithm that takes into account all major parameters of the outbreak, including the number of new cases, hospitalization, recovery of patients and mortality rate.
Scientists expect the acute phase of the pandemic to be over by mid-April. The northern region of Trentino-South Tyrol is expected to end the state of emergency on April 6, followed by central regions of Basilicata, Liguria and Umbria on April 7. The Lazzio region will stop announcing new cases by April 16.
Northern regions of Veneto and Piedmont, which were among the first to report cases of the disease on their territory, are expected to declare the end of the outbreak on April 14 and 15. The hardest-hit region of Lombardy and its administrative centre Milano will overcome the coronavirus outbreak by April 22. The adjacent region of Emilia-Romagna, which has the second-biggest number of confirmed cases in Italy, will do so on April 28.
The last Italian region to report zero new cases will be Toscana, on May 5.
Italian Deputy Minister of Health Pierpaolo Sileri, who was among the first novel coronavirus patients in the country, said on Monday that the country would leave the peak of infection behind in about 7-10 days.
A total of 812 coronavirus patients died in Italy in the past 24 hours, the country’s Civil Protection Department said on Monday. According to the department, 1,648 new cases were recorded in the past 24 hours, which is a record low compared to the daily average of over 3,000. A total of 101,739 people have contracted the virus since the start of the outbreak.