The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) may have let the cat out of the bag. The party has just told those interested in the politics of 2023 that it will not zone the presidency to any section of the country. Any member of the party that has interest in the office of the President, regardless of his region or zone, is free to contest for the office.
This seems to be a reaffirmation of the position taken by the party last October when it held its national convention. Then, the party had shied away from the vexed issue of zoning political offices. It is still doing so, even as some of its stalwarts jostle for the office of the President.
The PDP’s position is that it is more interested in winning the presidency than in the politics of zoning the office. The party is saying that it wants to put its best foot forward in the contest. For a party that lost power at the centre by default, after a 16-year reign, PDP’s chariness about zoning is understandable. It wants to seize the opportunity presented by the ruling party’s dismal performance to stage a comeback. To this extent, it could be tempting to fall for PDP’s argument.
But the devil in the house called power sharing compels otherwise.
The north and south of the country are steeped in the politics of zoning. Even within the South, the South-West is playing the spoilsport in the effort of the South to have power zoned to the region. Elements within the PDP who are not disposed to having the presidency zoned to the South argue that the region monopolized power, almost, for the 16 years the party was in the saddle. They think that the North deserves the party’s presidential ticket in 2023 more than the South.
Whatever the merit or lack of it in PDP’s no-zoning stance, the fact remains that the party is merely stopping short of saying that it will zone the presidency to the North. In fact, the party’s no-zoning formula is a clever way of zoning the presidency to the North. No one is deceived by this antic.
The pro-North disposition of the PDP since its loss of power in 2015 has never been in doubt. Having lost its hold on power through a southern President who mismanaged the party’s chances of retaining power, the PDP feels that its surest way of returning to power is to have its presidential candidate come from the North. That was why it quickly announced after its loss of power in 2015 that it had zoned the 2019 presidency to the North. The hasty declaration did not pay off. But the party is not about to give up on its northern presidential inclination. This time, it does not want to declare outright that it is zoning the presidency to the North. It is well aware of the growing sentiment in the South to have power shifted to the region. The PDP does not want to be seen to stand against that popular sentiment. That is why it has chosen the path of subterfuge.
But the PDP is not alone in this power intrigue. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has a different kind of headache to contend with. There does not seem to be any serious disagreement within the party about zoning. The received impression so far is that the party will zone the presidency to the South. What drives this disposition is the fact that the North would have held power for eight consecutive years by the time President Muhammadu Buhari hands over next year. That being the case, it is considered impolitic, if not immoral, for the party to still cede the presidency to the North. The South is, therefore, clearly favoured to clinch the party’s presidential ticket.
However, some storm is building up as to which zone, between the South-East and South-West, should hold the party’s ticket. Both zones appear to be working themselves into a frenzy over this. The South-East has all the arguments going for it. But the South-West is looking the other way. It wants to take a chance, regardless of whatever the South-East thinks or feels.
The scenarios within the PDP and APC are dicey ones. They take us beyond and above party politics. Regional or ethnic politics appears to be having an upper hand in the entire drama. It is being speculated that the North wants to retain power, using subterfuge as an instrument for the attainment of that goal.
Ordinarily, it should be expected that the APC, as a ruling party, has what it takes to retain power beyond 2023. In other words, the party can choose to remain in office, one way or another. However, a number of analysts are doubtful of APC’s readiness to go out of its way to ensure that a southern President emerges in 2023. The writing on the wall seems to indicate that the APC will allow itself to be defeated by the PDP so that another northerner will succeed Buhari. Should this happen, it will mean that the APC traded off the presidency in order to have power remain in the North in the immediate post-Buhari era. This is the high level power game that is brewing behind the scenes.
To neutralize this intricate web that could leave the South gasping for breath, those who do not want the 2023 presidency to be afflicted by poisonous intrigues insist that the best way out is to have both parties, the PDP and APC, zone the presidency to the South. To do otherwise will expose Nigeria to the bare-faced deception that has always held the country down.
In the event of this unlikely outcome, the monster called power sharing will wear a more poisonous fang. Right now, it is being taken, almost for granted, that power will go South after the North’s eight years in the saddle. Should this expectation fail, the two segments of Nigeria are likely to become more suspicious of one another. The development could be interpreted in certain circles to mean that the North wants to perpetuate itself in power. Since the South may never come together to put up a united fight against an arrangement that seeks to subjugate the region, the South may well end up as the North’s lapdog.
But it is most unlikely that the South would give in to such a second order position. Regardless of its fractiousness, the region is likely to become the fly in the ointment. It could become the stigma that the country may never come to terms with. What this means is that the devil in the house called power-sharing must be handled with caution by all concerned. Those who seek to manipulate it carelessly and unduly stand the risk of being consumed by it.