Louis Ibah and Adewale Sanyaolu
Nigeria’s economy may have lost over N200 billion following last weekend’s decision by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), to reschedule the country’s Presidential and National Assembly elections billed to hold last Saturday .
Economists and political analysts, while criticising INEC’s untidy preparations for the elections, noted the dire impact of its decision to key sectors of the economy like the manufacturing, trading, air and sea transport, entertainment, tourism, local eateries, barbing salons, and millions of artisans across the country, whose businesses remain fully or partiality shut down on election dates.
While the Director General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Mr. Muda Yusuf, estimates the losses to the economy at about $1.5 billion, President, National Association of Nigerian Traders (NANT), Mr. Ken Ukaoha, projects the losses at N140 billion from the postponement of the Presidential and National Assembly elections from February 16 to February 23, 2019.
According to both analyst, the shutdown in several economic activities across the country for two consecutive Saturdays (which could have been reduced to just one had the February 16 postponement been announced some days earlier) comes with huge negative impact on personal earnings of millions of Nigerians and the economy.
“The postponement of the elections has caused very serious disruptions to the nation’s economy and businesses. Many investors have lost a lot of money, and the loss to the economy due to the postponement cannot be less than $1.5 billion,” Yusuff said.
“The maritime sector of the economy is a very critical sector; what has happened would have cost the sector billions of naira. Due to the election, which led to early closure of work at the ports, many businesses would have suffered delays in their efforts to clear their cargoes, which could also lead to delay in getting raw materials to factories,” Yusuff lamented.
For his part, Ukaoha who spoke in Abuja on Saturday noted that the postponement had grave consequences for millions of Nigerian traders and transporters who were forced to shut down their businesses by government during the hours elections were supposed to be held.
“I am not talking of the manufacturing sector, but the transporters, the farmers, and other workers who are asked not to go to work. We need to be adequately prepared for elections,” he advised.
Ukaoha also noted that the postponement would mean additional expenditure on the part of INEC and the political parties on logistics and re-mobilising of personnel added that this certainly held adverse consequences for the economy.
The 2019 elections had seen a large influx of Nigerians in the Diaspora returning home to cast their votes. Some of them who spoke to Daily Sun however regretted the sudden shift in dates, which they lamented, has come at an extra cost to them considering the time and dates they had fixed for their return trips back to their countries of residence.
“The postponement comes at a huge cost for some of us that flew into the country from our bases abroad. Itineraries have to be altered, flight tickets have to be changed and at a cost, and then one has to spend more for unbudgeted accommodation and feeding fee,” said South Africa-based, Etienying Edem.
“I am ashamed that after 20 years of democratic governance, Nigeria is still not able to conduct elections on set dates and will subject its citizens at home and in the Diaspora to this sort of financial losses,” Edem said.
Also speaking, Director General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Segun Ajayi-Kadiri, said the postponement of the elections by INEC has disrupted the economy causing colossal losses. He regretted that the general elections impacted on industrial activity as most factories shut down their operations till Monday (today).
He said: “All Nigerians were full of expectations and looking forward to the election and were surprised by the news of its postponement. We know that many businesses closed early yesterday (Friday) to allow people move around and travel to cast their votes in their respective locations.”
The MAN boss however, urged Nigerians to keep faith and perform their civic responsibilities this week.
Also reacting to the ugly development, the Managing Director of Cowry Assets Limited, Mr. Johnson Chukwu, said the postponement was a huge setback to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), especially to the transport and aviation sectors.
He said those at the bottom of the pyramid are the worst hit as they virtually eat from hand to mouth, and depend on daily income to survive. This set of people who are in the informal sector would be the ones to bear the brunt as their survival for the period of postponement cannot be ascertained.
He regretted that the consequences of even attempting to shut down the economy for another Saturday would be far more severe for those in the informal sector and Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs).
The transport sector according to him, remains a critical aspect of the economy, contributing significantly to the country’s GDP, even as he also admitted that losses arising from flight disruptions on domestic and international due to the postponed election cannot not be quantified.
INEC had shifted last Saturday’s Presidential and National Assembly elections to February 23 after a meeting, which began late on Friday and ended early on Saturday. The governorship and House of Assembly, FCT area council elections were also shifted from March 2 to March 9.
INEC Chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, attributed the postponement of all the scheduled elections to logistic and operational challenges. He said the postponement would afford the Commission the opportunity to address the identified challenges in order to maintain the quality of Nigeria’s elections.