Not long ago, a top official of the Federal Government of Nigeria accused Kaduna State governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, of talking too much. Though he may have accused the governor in the context of his position on security challenges in the country, it is, however, obvious that some members of the Federal Government believe that the governor, who is also a ranking member of their party and a very strong voice on political and social issues in the North-West region, makes them uncomfortable with his comments on issues, especially his position of the management of security and the campaign for power to return to the South in 2023.
For ease of reference, El-Rufai has remained consistent in his call for the All Progressive Congress (APC) to swing its presidential pendulum for the 2023 election to the southern part of Nigeria. This, according to the governor, is in tandem with equity and pure reasoning.
According to him, nothing justifies the North holding on to power after the eight years of President Muhammadu Buhari. And, of course, there will be no justification for that to happen. If for anything, the state of the Nigerian nation, at the moment, should be one major reason for APC to rotate power to the South.
Specifically, the governor had said in February 2020: “I want to say that those of us from northern Nigeria honour agreements. We do not violate unwritten political agreements and I will be the last person to lead in violating that agreement. I may have a personal view but that should not be the basis. I don’t care where you come from but I look for merit. But as a group, the northern APC will have to sit down and endorse someone, most likely someone from the South, because, after eight years of Buhari, I don’t think the presidency should remain in the North, unless there are some extenuating circumstances. But, all things being equal, we will honour our agreement and we keep our words.”
He had also, at other events prior to 2020, stated his support for a power shift to the South. He argues that, though power rotation is not a constitutional matter, it was, however, agreed upon by the leadership of the APC prior to the 2015 general election. Outside El-Rufai, I have had a personal interaction with another APC top shot (whose name I won’t disclose because we spoke in confidence), and he spoke in the same line with El-Rufai. Like the Kaduna governor, this other APC member told me that the party refused to write the rotation policy into its constitution because it had to learn from the PDP experience. According to him, one of the reasons PDP ruined itself in 2015 was the refusal to respect the power rotation agreement enshrined in its constitution. The argument was that, if President Goodluck Jonathan and his backers had respected and upheld the zoning policy as mandated by the PDP constitution, the party would not have lost power. For this APC member, it was gentlemanly agreed that the presidency would rotate to the South after the eight years of Buhari. He further stated that it was on the basis of the agreement that the South was elected to lead the party as national chairman in 2014 through Chief John Odigie-Oyegun.
Logically, therefore, APC ought to rotate the presidency to the South, in keeping with the agreement it reached within itself. It is in keeping with that agreement that the North became chairman of the party at its last convention through Sen. Abdullahi Adamu. This is the position El-Rufai started canvassing in 2019. I also guess that it was for this reason that he refused to enter the presidential race, even when he has the support of the President and can easily swing Buhari’s supporters across the country to his side.
Keeping away from the presidential race could be his own way of reminding his colleagues in the party of the subsistence of the agreement they had among themselves to ensure that the presidency goes South after the North’s eight years through Buhari. Respecting that gentleman’s agreement now seems like a wedge between APC and its future. There are possibilities that what happened to PDP in 2015, over refusal to respect its rotation policy, may visit APC. If it does, it would be a self-inflicted injury that APC leaders brought upon the party, a situation that El-Rufai, and a few of his ilk, had battled to salvage prior to the March 26 national convention. And, of course, many Nigerians will like to witness the demise of APC as response to its abysmal failure in the leadership of Nigeria.
However, there have been some criticisms of El-Rufai’s insistence on rotating the presidency to the South, with some suggesting that its going south would clear the way for him to pair a southern presidential candidate to become a vice-presidential candidate. That, to me, is immaterial to the fact of the logic in his position. The basic issue to consider, however, is whether El-Rufai is stating the obvious: was there a gentleman’s agreement to rotate to the South after eight years of Buhari? Is he being nationalistic in his view? Shouldn’t APC rotate the presidency to the South? Will the heavens come down on Nigeria if power rotates to the South? Are there no capable APC members from the South to lead the country as President? Whatever the situation is, if a southern Nigerian emerges as the APC candidate, a northern Nigerian APC member will automatically pair him.
Therefore, his position is not out of personal interest but one that seeks to promote national unity, equity, justice, love and peace and cohesion against the sputum thrown on the face of the south by some leaders of the party who suggest, by their actions and comments, that there was no agreement and that the South does not really matter in the leadership of Nigeria.
It may be expedient for the Abdullahi Adamu-led national executive of the APC to cause a review and rescinding of its decision to throw open the presidential candidate nomination process of the APC in respect of the gentleman’s agreement entered into with members of the party by themselves, freely and without compulsion as so far, no member of the formation team that midwife the birth of APC has denied the existence of such an agreement.