By Amechi Ogbonna

When early this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank gave their tacit approval for Nigeria’s Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), no one was left in doubt that the Federal Government has at last hit the bull’s eye in its effort to pull the economy through its crushing recession. But the concern for most observers is the plan can pass the litmus test of effective implementations without being abandoned or politicised as in the past.
This fear stems from the fact that before unveiling the document, the government was not able to achieve much considering that existing policies could not tackle the three key challenges of corruption, improving security and re-building the economy.Observers are indeed of the view that although Nigeria has the potential to become a major player in the global economy by virtue of its human and natural resource endowments, it had continued to grope in dark ages of global development matrix due to huge inefficiencies in various sectors of the economy.
For instance, despite the huge contribution of the agriculture sector to the GDP since independence, successive political leaderships in the country had been misled into believing the discovery of crude oil and gas in the late 1960s, was all the country needed to industrialise. But this has turned out a day dream so far with the country remaining heavily dependent on imports in nearly 60 years of nationhood.
In line with this thinking the country failed to make significant success in agriculture, mining and even the manufacturing sectors, among others. Even after taking giant policy steps to jumpstart the development of key sectors, such efforts had ended without much success.
It was therefore not surprising that the economy fell flat from the second quarter of 2016 after the collapse of crude oil prices and production hitches triggered by hostilities in the Niger Delta area.
The key lessons to learn from this development, according to economy experts, was that something was fundamentally wrong with the structure of the Nigerian economy and that this needed to change urgently to ensure inclusive growth that would benefit the citizens.
This of course the Muhammadu Buhari administration recognised that without achange of strategy the economy was likely going  to remains on a path of steady and steep decline if nothing was done urgently to change the direction against which backdrop it launched a number of initiatives to tackle the challenges of the national economy in a fundamental way.
In this regard, government has kicked off a process that seeks to prioritise three policy goals including tackling corruption, improving security and re-building the economy with its Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP) for the 2016 Budget of Change developed as a short-term intervention.
But with the ERGP, a Medium Term Plan for 2017 – 2020, the administration seeks to build on the SIP developed for the purpose of restoring economic growth while leveraging the ingenuity and resilience of the Nigerian people –the nation’s most priceless assets.
The document had been articulated with the understanding that the role of government in the 21st century must evolve from that of being an omnibus provider of citizens’ needs into a force for removing the bottlenecks that impede innovation and market-based solutions, as it was intended to leverage Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) to build a knowledge-based economy.
The plan is therefore consistent with the aspirations of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) given that the initiatives address its three dimensions of economic, social and environmental sustainability issues.
With Oil accounting for more than 95 per cent of exports and foreign exchange earnings and manufacturing sector having less than one per cent of total exports, it was evident the high growth recorded during 2011-2015, which averaged 4.8 per cent per annum was mainly driven by higher oil prices, was largely non-inclusive.
It was for this reason that majority of Nigerians remained under the burden of poverty, inequality and unemployment as the deplorable infrastructure, corruption and mismanagement of public finances did not allow economic growth to impact the citizens.
According to the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Udoma Udo Udoma, the ERGP differs from previous plans in several ways as it focuses on implementation as the core of the delivery strategy over the next four years.
He explains that more than ever before, there is a strong political determination, commitment and will at the highest level to ensure the plan objectives are achieved as each of  the MDAs will have their different roles in implementing the plan with a Delivery Unit established in the Presidency to drive the implementation of key ERGP priorities.
The Ministry of Budget and National Planning will coordinate plan-implementation and build up its capability for robust monitoring and evaluation.
The plan outlines bold new initiatives such as ramping up oil production to 2.5mbpd by 2020, privatising selected public enterprises/assets, and revamping local refineries to reduce petroleum product imports by 60 per cent by 2018. Other initiatives include environmental restoration projects in the Niger Delta, which demonstrate the Federal Government’s determination to bring environmental sustainability to the forefront of its policies. Part of this plan is to use oil revenues to develop and diversify the economy, and not just sustain consumption as in the past.
The economy will run on multiple engines of growth, not just the single engine of oil by focusing on growth, not just for its own sake, but for the benefits it will bring to the Nigerian people. This plan also places importance on emerging sectors such as the entertainment and creative industries.
As expected, the ERGP is designed to build on existing sectoral strategies and plan such as the National Industrial Revolution Plan (NIRP), and the Nigeria Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan, rather than re-inventing the wheel.
main on a path of steady and steep decline if nothing was done urgently to change the trajectory against which backdrop it launched a number of initiatives to tackle these challenges to change the national economy in a fundamental way. It had kicked off its efforts with the prioritisation of three policy goals: tackling corruption, improving security and re-building the economy.
This was kickstarted with the Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP) for the 2016 Budget of Change developed as a short-term intervention.
The ERGP, a Medium Term Plan for 2017 – 2020, builds on the SIP and has been developed for the purpose of restoring economic growth while leveraging the ingenuity and resilience of the Nigerian people –the nation’s most priceless assets. It is also articulated with the understanding that the role of government in the 21st century must evolve from that of being an omnibus provider of citizens’ needs into a force for eliminating the bottlenecks that impede innovation and market-based solutions. The plan also recognises the need to leverage Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) and build a knowledge-based economy. The ERGP is also consistent with the aspirations of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) given that the initiatives address its three dimensions of economic, social and environmental sustainability issues.
The structure of the economy remains highly import dependent, consumption driven and undiversified. Oil accounts for more than 95 per cent of exports and foreign exchange earnings while the manufacturing sector accounts for less than one per cent of total exports. The high growth recorded during 2011-2015, which averaged 4.8 per cent per annum mainly driven by higher oil prices, was largely non-inclusive. Majority of Nigerians remain under the burden of poverty, inequality and unemployment. General economic performance was also seriously undermined by deplorable infrastructure, corruption and mismanagement of public finances. Decades of consumption and high oil price-driven growth led to an economy with a positive but jobless growth trajectory.
The ERGP differs from previous plans in several ways as it focuses on implementation as the core of the delivery strategy over the next four years. More than ever before, there is a strong political determination, commitment and will at the highest level. While all the MDAs will have their different roles in implementing the plan, a Delivery Unit is being established in the Presidency to drive the implementation of key ERGP priorities. The Ministry of Budget and National Planning will coordinate plan-implementation and build up its capability for robust monitoring and evaluation.
The plan outlines bold new initiatives such as ramping up oil production to 2.5mbpd by 2020, privatising selected public enterprises/assets, and revamping local refineries to reduce petroleum product imports by 60 per cent by 2018. Other initiatives include environmental restoration projects in the Niger Delta, which demonstrate the Federal Government’s determination to bring environment sustainability to the forefront of its policies. Part of this plan is to use oil revenues to develop and diversify the economy, not just sustain consumption as in the past. The economy will run on multiple engines of growth, not just the single engine of oil by focusing on growth, not just for its own sake, but for the benefits it will bring to the Nigerian people. This plan also places importance on emerging sectors such as the entertainment and creative industries.
The ERGP builds on existing sectoral strategies and plan such as the National Industrial Revolution Plan (NIRP), and the Nigeria Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan. Rather than re-inventing the wheel, the ERGP will strengthen the successful components of these previous strategies and plans while addressing challenges observed in their implementation.

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It is innovative as it signals a changing relationship between the public and private sectors based on close partnership. In implementing the plan, the government will collaborate closely with businesses to deepen their investments in the agriculture, power, manufacturing, solid minerals and services sectors, and support the private sector to become the engine of national growth and development. In addition, science and technology will be effectively harnessed to drive national competitiveness, productivity and economic activities in all sectors.
The vision of the ERGP is one of sustained inclusive growth. There is an urgent need as a nation to drive a structural economic transformation with an emphasis on improving both public and private sector efficiency. This is aimed at increasing national productivity and achieving sustainable diversification of production, to significantly grow the economy and achieve maximum welfare for the citizens, beginning with food and energy security. This plan is a pointer to the type of Nigeria that the people desire in the short to medium-term, and encourages the use of science, technology and innovation to drive growth. It also provides a blueprint for the type of foundation that needs to be laid for future generations, and focuses on building the capabilities of the youths of Nigeria to be able to take the country into the future.
•Focus on tackling constraints to growth: Economic growth in Nigeria faces various supply constraints including fuel, power, foreign exchange, and business unfriendly regulations. In addition, there is a shortage of requisite skills and appropriate technology necessary to drive growth. This plan focuses on overcoming and resolving these challenges.
•Leverage the power of the private sector: Economic recovery and transformative growth cannot be achieved by the government alone. It is essential to harness the dynamism of business and the entrepreneurial nature of Nigerians, from the MSMEs to the large domestic and multinational corporations to achieve the objectives of this plan. The plan prioritises the provision of a more business friendly economic environment.
•Promote national cohesion and social inclusion: Nigerians are the ultimate beneficiaries of more inclusive growth and therefore, the initiatives set out in this plan are aimed at ensuring social inclusion and the strengthening of national cohesion.
•Allow markets to function: The ERGP recognises the power of markets to drive optimal behaviour among market participants. The plan prioritises the use of the market as a means of resource allocation, where appropriate. However, the plan also recognises the need to strengthen regulatory oversight to minimise market abuse
•Uphold core values: The ERGP is rooted in the core values that define the Nigerian society as enshrined in the 1999 Constitution, notably discipline, integrity, dignity of labour, social justice, religious tolerance, self-reliance and patriotism. It requires all citizens and stakeholders to adhere to these principles.
The ERGP has three broad strategic objectives that will help achieve the vision of inclusive growth outlined above: (1) restoring growth, (2) investing in our people, and (3) building a globally competitive economy.
Restoring Growth: To restore growth, the plan focuses on achieving macroeconomic stability and economic diversification. Macroeconomic stability will be achieved by undertaking fiscal stimulus, ensuring monetary stability and improving the external balance of trade. Similarly, to achieve economic diversification, policy focus will be on the key sectors driving and enabling economic growth, with particular focus on agriculture, energy and MSME-led growth in industry, manufacturing and key services by leveraging science and technology. The revival of these sectors, increased investment in other sectors, less reliance on foreign exchange for intermediate goods and raw materials and greater export orientation will improve macroeconomic conditions, restore growth in the short term and help to create jobs and bring about structural change.
Investing in our people: Economic growth is beneficial for society when it creates opportunities and provides support to the vulnerable. The ERGP will invest in the Nigerian people by increasing social inclusion, creating jobs and improving the human capital base of the economy.
•Social inclusion: The Federal Government will continue to provide support for the poorest and most vulnerable members of society by investing in social programmes and providing social amenities. Targeted programmes will reduce regional inequalities, especially in the North East and Niger Delta.
Job creation and youth empowerment: Interventions to create jobs are a core part of the ERGP, which aims to reduce unemployment and under-employment, especially among youths. The ERGP accordingly prioritises job creation through the adoption of a jobs and skills programme for Nigeria including deepening existing N-Power programmes, and launching other public works programmes. The partnership for job creation will also focus on the policies required to support growth and diversification of the economy by placing emphasis on Made-in-Nigeria, public procurement which takes account of local content and labour intensive production processes. All initiatives under job creation would prioritise youths as beneficiaries. Accordingly, all capacity building and skills acquisition interventions will be targeted at youth-dominated sectors such as ICT, creative industries, and services. Furthermore, concerted efforts would be made to encourage youths to venture into other labour intensive sectors such as agriculture and construction.
•Improved human capital: The Federal Government will invest in health and education to fill the skills gap in the economy, and meet the international targets set under the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The ERGP will improve the accessibility, affordability and quality of healthcare and will roll out the National Health Insurance Scheme across the entire country. It will also guarantee access to basic education for all, improve the quality of secondary and tertiary education, and encourage students to enrol in science and technology courses.
•Building a globally competitive economy: Restoring Nigeria’s economic growth and laying the foundations for long-term development requires a dynamic, agile private sector that can innovate and respond to global opportunities. The ERGP aims to tackle the obstacles hindering the competitiveness of Nigerian businesses, notably poor or non-existent infrastructural facilities and the difficult business environment. It will increase competitiveness by investing in infrastructure and improving the business environment. •Investing in infrastructure: The ERGP emphasises investment in infrastructure, especially in power, roads, rail, ports and broadband networks. It builds on ongoing projects and identifies new ones to be implemented by 2020 to improve the national infrastructure backbone. Given the huge capital layout required to address the massive infrastructure deficit in the country, the private sector is expected to play a key role in providing critical infrastructure, either directly or in collaboration with the government under public private partnership (PPP) arrangements.
•Improving the business environment: Nigeria’s  difficult and often opaque business environment adds to the cost of doing business, and is a disincentive to domestic and foreign investors alike. Regulatory requirements must be more transparent, processing times must be faster, the overall economy must be more business-friendly. The ERGP will build on the efforts of the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) and track progress using the metrics of the World Bank’s Doing Business Report. The target is to achieve a top 100 ranking in the World Bank’s Doing Business index by 2020 (up from the current ranking of 169).
•Promoting Digital-led growth: To make the Nigerian economy more competitive in the 21st century global economy, its industrial policy must be linked to a digital-led strategy for growth. The ERGP will build on the Smart Nigeria Digital Economy Project to increase the contribution from ICT and ICT-enabled activity to GDP. This is enabled through significantly expanding broadband coverage, increasing e-government, and establishing ICT clusters, starting in the SEZs. Government will also drive a programme to build the skills in this sector, focusing on training IT engineers in software development, programming, network development and cyber security.