From Isaac Anumihe, Abuja
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) yesterday, said that it was set to release the December Consumer Price Index (CPI), today (tomorrow, Monday).
CPI measures the inflation rate.
Expectedly, the rate would not be different from the deceleration trend which has dotted the rate since March, last year.
Recall that the rate started its deceleration move from April when it slowed to 18:12 per cent from 18: 17 per cent in March.
Again, in April it came down to 18:12 per cent from May’s 17: 93 per cent and in May the inflation rate downed to 17:75 in June.
Similarly, while July recorded a lowly 17:38 per cent, August also slipped to 17:01per cent. The declining performance was recorded in September (16:83 per cent), October (15:99 per cent) and November (15:40 per cent).
Earlier, Director, Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Hassan Mahmud, at the virtual Mid-Year Economic Review and Outlook, 2021, organised by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria’s Centre for Financial Studies, in collaboration with B. Adedipe Associates, had predicted that the country’s inflation rate would drop to a single digit in 2022.
Mahmud said that there were positive sides to Nigeria’s economic growth, despite uncertainties in the domestic and global economy.
He said that if policy challenges with exchange rates, insecurity, among others, were addressed effectively, the country would start seeing some positive projections in 2021 and the beginning of 2022.
“We will also see the inflation number coming down less than 13 per cent by the end of 2021 and further down to single-digit by 2022 or the middle of 2022.” Mahmud, said.
Confirming this projection, Statistician-General (SG), Dr Simon Harry, said that the decline was because of the conscious implementation of the Sustainable Developments Goals (SDGs) by the government.
To arrive at the inflation rate, over over 10,534 informants from different parts of the country are deployed and the price index of over 740 goods and services are compiled.
“Key in the construction of the price index is the selection of the market basket of goods and services. Every month, 10,534 informants spread across the country provide price data for the computation of the CPI. The market items currently comprise 740 goods and services regularly priced.
The first stage in the calculation of the CPI is the collection of prices on each item (740 goods and services) from outlets in each sector (rural or urban) for each state. Prices are then averaged for each item per sector across the
state. The next step is to use the average price to calculate the basic index for each commodity. The current year price of each commodity is compared with a base year’s price to obtain a relative price.
“The sum of the product of weights (obtained from the expenditure survey) and relative prices for each item is divided by the sum of the weight of the items in that class, and the result multiplied by 100 gives the required index number. This index number is still classified according to the urban or rural classification sector for each of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). This yields 85 classes and then 48 groups are then reclassified into 12 divisions.
“The survey methodology generates 3774 all items indices for all states and the FCT” NBS, said.
