The governorship elections, this Saturday, in Bayelsa and Kogi states, are investments people of both states must now make for their future. How they invest will determine the sort of future they want for themselves and their children. But the dynamics are different. I am not deeply bothered about how it turns out in Kogi state, as I am for Bayelsa state. Kogi is a multi-ethnic state. Elections in Nigeria are largely a contest for ethnic superiority. For this reason, Kogi presents a different dynamic of ethnic maneuverings and dislodgments unlike Bayelsa state, thought Yahaya Bello is of a minority stock.
Yahaya Bello, who has left no one in doubt about his lack of capacity to govern, will pull all the strings to ensure he retains power. This is irrespective of his failure to lead reasonably. However, if the electoral umpire does not live up to its credit as a pathetically biased one, the outcome may become an epitaph on All Progressives Congress (APC) tombstone in Kogi state. This is because the challenge presented by Natasha Akpoti of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) threatens to sink the Bello machine, much more than whatever the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presents. The fear of her possibility had forced the ruling party in Kogi into a destructive romance with the umpire leading to her disqualification. She now owes her participation in the election to a Supreme Court decision which upturned her disqualification -a reaffirmation that INEC lacks powers to disqualify a candidate duly nominated by a political party for an election. There seems to be a lot going for her than there is for the PDP candidate.
However, the battleground on Saturday will be Bayelsa. The state has voted PDP since 1999. It is also the home state of President Goodluck Jonathan, who as at this time is leader of the party. Bayelsa is a single ethnic group state. Either PDP or APC, Bayelsa is Ijaw. So, there won’t be any contest for ethnic superiority. The contest will rather focus on Jonathan, and also, in memory of late Chief Diepreye Solomon Peter Alamieyeseigha, Governor-General of the Ijaw nation and first governor of the state, whose sudden demise shook the Ijaw nation, not just because he was super human but because of the politics of the country, and the retorts, at the time he went the way of all mortals.
In the run-up to the election, both the APC and PDP candidates have contested for space and media attention with the Jonathan family. The APC candidate has published more photographs showing him with either Jonathan’s wife or his mother. This is an indication that where Jonathan stands means a lot in the selection of Gov. Seriake Dickson’s successor. However, Jonathan’s involvement in the election should be a footnote in the leadership recruitment process for Bayelsa state. If Jonathan sought to elevate leadership at the national level, with the appointment of a cabinet made up of men and women of learning and capacity, going back to Bayelsa to stamp the direct opposite of what he stood for as President, will blight his records.
PDP has given Jonathan plenty of reason to be eternally grateful to it and continually work for its glory. The outcome of the 2015 presidential election literally made Jonathan a pariah. Many of his associates disowned him for political expediency. Many struggled, in the media, to distance themselves from him. Some took turns to blame him for the failure of Nigeria. He was literally forlorn. That, of course, is the way of power. Even your closest allies desert you once the carpet is pulled from your feet. But Gov. Dickson roused PDP in Bayelsa, and indeed, people of the state to receive him with a welcome party which he later confessed made him feel loved. I believe that the support of the Bayelsa PDP gave him the courage he needed to face Nigerians, especially, the treacherous lot that masqueraded as his friends. Therefore, the best thank you anyone would expect from him is to work for the victory of PDP in Bayelsa on Saturday.
Leadership of the party in Bayelsa may have allowed certain things to happen between them and Jonathan. But having shown himself to the world as one who has risen beyond hateful pain, the former president now need to show further that he has grown beyond revenge. That is a demonstration the Ijaw nation needs to create a new narrative about its people.
When the Bayelsa electorate votes on Saturday, they will be faced with a choice –to move away from a tradition of delivery of good governance or to sustain and enhance it. PDP has proven itself to be a mass enabler of the people of the state. Yes, APC has never been tried in Bayelsa. But like it is said, you glean the taste of quinine looking at the faces of those drinking it. What APC has done with Nigeria so far -the elevation of poverty as national development plan- makes it imperative for people of good conscience to be weary of the party and its acolytes. APC’s politics, driven by hateful revenge, ethnic supremacy and conquest, need not get the endorsement of reasonable people in Bayelsa state, or anywhere else. The party has become toxic in its approach to development and good living.
Interestingly, National Chairman of the party, Adams Oshiomhole, who as governor of Edo state chanted his ‘one man, one vote’ mantra wherever he went, has thrashed same mantra. Wish he can face Bayelsa people with the chant and also, insist that INEC respects the voice of the people. But, he seems now to be more at home with ruse. That says a lot about the character and focus of the party. There is therefore every reason to doubt the possibility of APC winning a governorship election in south-south Nigeria, if the election umpire divests itself of any special bias and allow the wish of the people to prevail. Bayelsa may become a nunc dimitis for APC in south south.