There is growing nervousness about the September 19, 2020, governorship election in Edo State. The uneasiness is driven by fear of unparalleled violence. The election has drawn an unusually high level of interest from across the country. Party leaders are interested in the election. National Assembly members are following the election campaigns. Other state governors are watching with great attention. The people of Edo State are trying to make their voices heard but, amid the din of drumbeats and angry election campaign rhetoric, it is difficult to hear a word. 
Long before the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) fired the starter’s gun, the leading candidates and their parties had been out and about, wooing voters with exaggerated promises of a good life made in heaven; that is, life without ill health, life without economic hardships, life without water scarcity, life without school fees, life without electricity bills, life without herdsmen, life without kidnappers, life without bandits and assassins, and life without bad roads. Politicians know what citizens like to hear.
The political atmosphere is clouded with apocalyptic predictions. To be clear, it is not only the level of extraordinary interest shown by all parties, politicians, and ordinary citizens that gives the forthcoming Edo governorship election a note of uncertainty, it is also how and whether the outcomes of the election would be accepted by ordinary citizens. Would the result of the election generate mass protests, or would the election outcome strengthen inter-ethnic relations and entrench peaceful coexistence of the diverse people in the state?
As the precursor to next year’s calendar of political events, the Edo State governorship election will test the true character, integrity, and independence of INEC boss Mahmood Yakubu and his officials. Similarly, there will be opportunities to scrutinise the even-handedness of security agencies that are usually deployed to maintain law and order during elections.
Can INEC, for example, commit to correct its numerous blunders in last year’s general election to demonstrate that it is no longer a servant of the party in power at the federal level? Can the police, for instance, provide security for all citizens instead of focusing overly on the safety of politicians who often ride on a state of anarchy in order to implement their predetermined strategies to win elections through unlawful practices?
There are reasons why everyone should be worried by the state of insecurity ahead of the governorship election. Political candidates, thugs, and local warlords have consistently described the election in chilling, macabre language. That objectionable behaviour has raised public concerns about safety during the election. This is one election that every candidate wants to win and one that the loser also wants to disrupt. There is an element of inevitability about the way the gladiators are preparing for the election. The dreadful language is: “We will fight to the finish”.
The aggressive and strident tone of the election campaigns represents an assault on the intelligence of all voters. The uncompromising position adopted by some candidates and their parties, the winner-take-all manner in which the candidates are viewing the big prize, as well as the decadent language being exchanged by all sides pose a major threat to the stability of Edo State after the election.
Edo State governorship election is different in many ways. No more than two political parties have dominated the campaigns. The minor parties are almost invisible and so are their candidates. One unique feature of the campaigns so far is the hyperactive involvement of Adams Oshiomhole, former state governor, former chairperson of the All Progressives Congress (APC), and former president of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC).
Oshiomhole and the APC leaders appear determined to win the election by any means. Weeks before the D-Day, there are daily exchanges of allegations and counter allegations by both political parties of plots to rig the election. Top party campaign managers have been drafted to Edo State by the APC and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to oversee the vigorous and sometimes noisy campaigns and to engineer their own party’s victory. The atmosphere is electric, literally and figurately.
In a situation in which the PDP and the APC have invested so much human, material, and financial resources into the election, the two parties are optimistic they would emerge victorious on 19 September. None is willing to admit the possibility that it could lose the election. Unfortunately, whether they like it or not, there will be a result. There will be a winner and a loser. Predicting who that winner or loser might be is as delicate as forecasting the exact hour and minute a pregnant woman would give birth.
For Oshiomhole, a man with a record of previous service roles, you would think that whatever he says would influence the election in the direction that Edo State people have been craving. Regrettably, Oshiomhole’s intrusion into the state politics, the divisive nature of his politics, his hypocritical support for different governorship candidates at different points in history, his inconsistent utterances, and his unending battles with just about every member of former President Goodluck Jonathan’s government have deprived him the honour he would have earned as a statesman and an influential godfather of Edo politics,. Rather than view him as a man of boundless energy and vision, many Edo people prefer to see him as a disruptive politician.
Oshiomhole’s intervention in Edo governorship election has excited some people and at the same time agitated others. As he has thrown his hat openly into the election ring, as a result of the provocative, fractious, and belligerent nature of his speeches, other citizens and politicians who would normally have stayed impartial have vowed to work to counter Oshiomhole’s influence. The stage is set for a clash of political titans. These are interesting times in Edo State.
A governorship election blemished by violence is likely to have major consequences for other elections coming up next year and beyond. In fact, a governorship election flawed by widespread infringements of the rules will reinforce that painful message about INEC’s inability to conduct free and transparent elections.
The approaching Edo governorship election most certainly will test the readiness of everyone – politicians, political parties, and ordinary citizens — to tolerate one another and accept the verdict of voters. At stake is the willingness of political leaders and their parties to allow voters to decide who should govern them. The election will showcase to the global community how we elect our state governors.
Edo State people and politicians have an opportunity in the coming election to show the world whether the processes for electing a governor are observed peacefully in the spirit of democracy or violated through violent and unscrupulous practices such as hijacking of ballot boxes, thumb printing of ballot papers, intimidation and harassment of voters, as well as manipulation of election results. The choice is clear.
Everyone in Edo State has exactly 19 days to make history or allow politicians without honour to upend their lives and overturn their honest votes. I can barely wait.