From Isaac Anumihe, Abuja
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has trimmed its 2021 global economic growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 5.9 per cent, citing the effect of supply disruptions in advanced economies and worsening pandemic dynamics in developing countries.
The fund had in its July 2021 World Economic Outlook, forecast 6. 0 per cent as the global economic growth in 2021.
While the adjustment to the 2021 growth outlook is small, the divergence between advanced economies and low-income developing countries is more pronounced as a consequence of the “great vaccine divide,” the report said.
“Vaccine access has emerged as the principal faultline along which the global recovery splits into two blocs: those that can look forward to further normalisation of activity later this year (almost all advanced economies) and those that will still face resurgent infections and rising COVID death tolls,” the IMF said in its October 2021 World Economic Outlook.
According to the report, partly offsetting the negatives are stronger near-term prospects for some commodity-exporting emerging markets and developing economies. Still, uncertainty over the pace of economic recovery is increasing due to the spread of delta and the threat of new variants.
Meanwhile, the IMF’s projection for 2022 global economic growth is unchanged at 4.9 per cent.
Earlier this month, IMF’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, discussed risks to a broad global recovery, including the vaccine divide and debt.
So far, global economic recovery is continuing, even as the pandemic resurges.
“The fault lines opened up by COVID-19 are looking more persistent—near-term divergences are expected to leave lasting imprints on medium-term performance. Vaccine access and early policy support are the principal drivers of the gaps” it said.