Nigeria is currently precariously perched between the rock and the hard place. Not since Independence in 1960 or the amalgamation of 1914 has Nigeria been assailed by many multi-dimensional problems at the same time as now: social, political and economic. The security situation is horrendous, with more than a decade-long insurrection in the North East, ongoing banditry, kidnapping and other violent crimes in the North West, alongside willful destruction of communities and forceful eviction of farmers and other rural dwellers in the North Central by lawless Fulani herdsmen or by people who have been described as “bandits.”
In the South East, there is the menace of sectarian agitation anchored on the demand for self-determination for a Biafra Republic, even as the movement for secession of an imaginary Oduduwa Republic rages on in the South West. We cannot, of course, ignore the long-running agitation and violence often leading to piracy, kidnapping and sundry other violent social turbulence in the South-South, otherwise known as the Niger Delta.
In the present circumstances, it is often difficult to envision the existence of any government credibly committed to the maintenance of law and order in any part of Nigeria. It is as if whatever order there may be is observed in the breach: with unknown gunmen, cattle rustlers, kidnappers and armed robbers ruling the highways – from Kaduna to Abuja, Lagos to Onitsha, through Benin, and often from Benin, through Auchi to Abuja. Zamfara, Niger, Kebbi and even Kaduna states are no-go areas sometimes. Add to all these the bombing of the Kaduna-Abuja train and the bandits’ takeover of the Kaduna Airport. It is a state of woe and inexplicable mayhem. It is in this state of ennui that we have to make plans to discharge two national assignments, which are necessary for democratic governance and which have in the past served as the alibi for inescapable political disorder: the national census and the national elections. Clearly, the pursuit of these national duties will test and challenge our nationhood. If this sounds like an epistle from hell, it is difficult to deny these as our present reality.
Nexus of the economy and insecurity
Of all the crises that seem to overwhelm our government and our people, the most critical is the economy – the mismanagement of our economy is the central driver of all the other problems, particularly the deteriorating security problem. It is the state of the economy that has spawned a multitude of other related and interwoven problems such as poverty, in which we have become with India the poverty capital of the world. The World Bank stated last week that over 90 million Nigerians joined the rank of those who live below the poverty line last year. Unemployment, which at over 40 per cent of the population, is a central factor in driving youth restlessness, often culminating in a variety of anti-social attitudes that spawn cultism, drug addiction and abuse and other social vices, including deviant sexual behaviour. Our government’s inability to cope with the challenges of the economy arises from the incapacity of our government to apprehend the structural characteristics of a growing economy that if understood and managed properly, can lead to fast-paced economic development as has happened to many countries around the world in the last 50 years and most spectacularly with the South East Asian nations. Economists who have studied the empirical conditions for fast-paced economic development have shown that, for an economy to veer into the pathway of fast-paced economic development, it must maintain a GDP growth rate of at least 7.5 per cent per annum, sustained over at least a decade but usually for two or three successive decades. At that rate of growth, it is usual to expect a doubling of the economy every decade. That is the magic wand that changed the story in China, Singapore, South Korea, Israel and, lately, Dubai. In the case of Nigeria, however, given our population growth rate of nearly 4 per cent, the minimum GDP growth rate that can pull us out of the present quagmire of underdevelopment driven by poverty will be 11 per cent GDP growth p.a., sustained for a decade or more. Needless to note that a firm commitment to education-driven science, technology, engineering, mathematics (STEM) and innovation system is basic to all our plans. If this goal is pursued relentlessly, productivity will rise, as poverty progressively declines, our terms of trade will change positively, while wealth creation will become a constant feature of the economy. Under such circumstances, the exchange rate will appreciate, as unemployment will depreciate. Moreover, a disciplined and well paid workforce will lead to a disciplined society in which criminality and other vices will suffer natural attrition. Our inability to embrace this basic principle of economics has consigned us to the lowly status of drawers of water and hewers of wood of the world economy. Hopefully, this will implant and drive a new national code of values. The dividend of such an environment will be a more disciplined and morally upright political elite.
Cultural dimensions of the Nigerian conundrum
There are cultural dimensions to the responsiveness of a culture or a nation to the demands of fast-paced economic development. Some cultures are resistant to change and thus recalcitrant to the need to adjust to changing circumstances. Other cultures are more adaptable. The adaptability or otherwise of any given culture depends on the ruling code of values. It has been observed, for example, that the Reformation in Western Europe incubated certain values of hard work, industry, stewardship, entrepreneurship, trust and right living, which the German philosopher Max Weber codified as the Protestant work ethic that promoted savings and gave rise to the emergence of capitalism and science as instruments for promoting wealth creation in the West European nations. It has also been suggested that an equivalent work ethic in Confucianism, which promoted similar values in some countries, has promoted the emergence of capitalism in some of the developing nations of Asia – China, Singapore, Taiwan and Japan.
It has also been suggested that the seven normative values that drive social change in the Igbo society are also facilitators of wealth creation. These values are
• Ikenga – which defines and directs the inner strength driven by the personal chi and personal ambition;
• Ako n’uche – the reservoir of inner wisdom beyond wealth and physical endowments;
• Onye aghala nwanneya – embodies the communal spirit within the context of transformative collegiate leadership;
• Njepu – harnesses the truism that travels beyond the local environment enhances experience that enlightens the persona with wisdom to drive the common good;
• Ntozu – embodies maturity that comes with the highest level of self-actualisation and drives leadership founded on truth and wisdom eschewing avarice and the fear of man;
• Ezi okwu bu ndu – encapsulates the belief that untruth in the mouth of a titled chief (an elder, nze n’ozo) is an abomination;
• Igwe bu ike – unity is strength thus supporting the communal ethos and collective will of the community.
These values encoded in the protestant ethic are similar to the Igbo normative values as recognized in Western societies as symbols of modernity and became entrenched in the democratic ethos. Out of this emerged two major strands of the democratic order – liberalism and republicanism. The former is a political philosophy or worldview founded on ideas of individual liberty, hinged on the rights of the individual, liberty, consent of the governed and equality before the law. Thus in liberalism we have the echoes of individual autonomy, equality of opportunities and the protection of the individual’s rights – life, liberty and property as echoed in the traditional Igbo values.
Primarily, the antagonist of the liberal spirit was the state and later this included private economic actors, including businesses. Republicanism, on the other hand, was a rival political ideology centred on citizenship in a state organised as a republic. It ranges from the rule of a representative minority or oligarchy to the notion of popular sovereignty.
Traditional Igbo society operated as democratic and republican micro states in which all adult males, as citizens, participated in the society’s decision-making. Beyond the village level, representatives participated in negotiation with other villages, thus entrenching representative democracy. Unfortunately, the colonial administrators did not understand the dynamics of traditional Igbo democracy, leading to their effort to impose indirect rule through the warrant chiefs. This was a disaster, which degenerated into social upheavals such as the Women’s Riot of 1929 that disorganised the traditional polity. Given the individualism and drive of the Igbo spirit, the traditional society adjusted to the new order by adapting to the new situation through education.
That drive for education from 1930 through 1940 to the 1950s laid the foundation for the Eastern peoples participation in the self-governance programmes that the colonialists imposed with their emphasis on regionalism, which became a challenge to the inherent democratic spirit of the Igbo and others. Michael Okpara incorporated the seven affirmative values of the Igbo society which incidentally are shared with the Ibibios into the governance of Eastern Nigeria such that the drive, individualism and adaptability of the people were given full scope to flourish. We must note that the culture and traditions of the Eastern peoples, especially the Ibibio, were in most respects similar to the Igbo situation since they shared comparable values and ethos. That is perhaps the impetus and explanation for the Eastern Nigeria’s economy to break free, coming from the poorest of the three regions to the fastest growing economy globally by 1964. The lesson to be learnt from the governance of the Nigerian peoples in the late colonial and post-colonial era is that if patience to understand the people and their culture had been more evident in the attitude of the colonisers and the Nigerian nationalists had also been more discerning and patient to learn lessons from our past history especially in their interaction with one another and the willingness to cooperate with each other the trajectory for our development would have been different. Perhaps the transition to the global economy and international affairs would have been different and more conducive to the new circumstances of the post-colonial and early post-independent era. With more experienced and mature leadership the civil war would have been seen as unnecessary and avoidable. Thus, leadership is the crux of the matter, then and now.
Values, norms development and leadership: The central challenge
History teaches that in the life of the individual, as in the life of the nation, there comes a time that matters come to a head for good or ill. Nigeria is today in such a defining moment: the years 2022 and 2023 are critical and may in future years be seen as the years in which the fate of Nigeria was determined for good or ill. Why is this the case?
In the light of all that has been said, the multifarious crises of Nigeria, political, social, economic and even psychological, can be anchored on a leadership deficit. It is the lack of vision, capacity and values as I had demonstrated in the Emeka Anyaoku Lecture in Port Harcourt in 2015, three months after the emergence of President Muhammadu Buhari. We have lacked leaders who would practice statecraft – the art of government with a touch of statesmanship.
Wikipedia presents the statesman as a well-known and experienced political leader or figure. Such statesmen are in most respects the opposite of the politician, as politicians, according to Wikipedia, “are thought of as people who will say or do anything to get elected or gain power” as we have seen repeatedly in Nigeria even as the cycle is set to repeat itself in 2023, unless the unexpected or the God factor intervenes before the circle closes. The statesman has been identified as one who does everything for the common good of the people he or she represents. No wonder it has been said that the politician focuses on the next election even as the statesman focuses on the next generation. Wikipedia observes further that “to call a person a statesman is a mark of high regard for that person’s integrity while to call someone a politician implies that the person is worthy of very little esteem…”
Unfortunately, the Nigerian species of politicians is one of the most venal but thankfully a new crop of putative statesmen has started to emerge from among them. It should be noted, however, that the role of the statesman flourishes in a milieu that encourages the growth of patriotism – “the feeling of love, devotion and sense of attachment to one’s country.” This attachment can be a combination of many different feelings, language relating to one’s own homeland, including ethnic, cultural, political or historical aspects. It encompasses a set of concepts closely related to nationalism. So, the dilemma that faces us revolves on how to build the bridge of cooperation between the statesman of integrity and the patriotic citizen, both of whom are vital for economic development and nation building. We have indicated earlier that the economic development of the nation is the lynch-pin on which is anchored all the other factors necessary to solve many of the multifarious problems of the society. Given that economic development is the process through which the overall education, wellbeing, health, income and living standards of the general population improves. This is the mechanism that will gradually drive the economy into growth, change, transformation and ultimately become an advanced or developed economy. The central challenge before the Nigerian nation is to establish the vision of the long term direction of the economy and with that in hand to begin the onerous task of nation building.
Contemporary and outstanding issues as we approach 2023
If the economy is so vital to the challenge of nation building and development what should be our priorities as we fitfully approach the critical year 2023? If truth must be told leadership is key. Unfortunately, the present crop of politicians are incapable of solving any of the problems they created and which afflict our society presently. Indeed, it should be obvious that many of the problems were created by the kind and style of politics we practice. It is trite logic to observe that a given set of problems cannot usually be solved by those who created them. That is the current dilemma facing the nation. The leadership we need must be driven by knowledge, capacity and integrity. The last value is critical because it is anchored on the value system of the society. The value system in any society is the hierarchy of values that all moral agents possess as demonstrated by their choices. As it has been observed a person’s values determines his or her character and actions even in situations where negative consequences might exist for doing the right thing. Moral decisions produce internal rewards when value systems and actions collide. That is why integrity is the fulcrum of the ethical and moral principles that guide decisions made by individuals and organisations and why leadership often demands sacrifice on the part of the leaders.
With regard to the economy, we need to return governance and the management of the economy to people by instituting “ a process through which the overall education, wellbeing, health, income and living standards of the general population improves such that the economy will grow through enhanced productivity of the people, change through the harnessing of their skills and knowledge. Ultimately the objective is to transform the economy so that we can join the ranks of the developed world.
This agenda for the progressive development of the society will increase and enhance the capacity of the leader to provide the security of life and property of the citizens as enshrined in Chapter Two of our current even if inadequate constitution. As I had observed elsewhere
“..Leaders who have led successful transformation of their societies have usually been men of exceptional intelligence, knowledge and wisdom anchored on integrity, sensitivity and tenacity of purpose. They are people who have a clear sense of purpose with the uncanny ability to handle the organizational politics of their environment while managing processes to facilitate the desired outcomes…as managers of political processes they have the enhanced capacity to resolve dilemmas, ethical issues and conflicts as well as to shift paradigms through creative thinking and techniques of persuasion. They are masters in the management of creative tension. These are not average people – Lee Kuan Yew, Deng Xiaoping, Mahathir Mohammed, Clinton etc. but larger than life in their talents, drive and will to reshape their environment and the future of their societies..”
Do we have such men and women? Yes we do but the challenge is to find them and press them into service as necessary duty to the fatherland/motherland. This is why we need statesmen and patriots who can make sacrifices for the nation at a time like this.
Overview of the current situation
There is the famous story in the holy book that while ‘we were sleeping’ an enemy sowed tares among the wheat. This is the current situation in our country. While we were unmindful of the political environment especially the selection process of potential leaders, venal god fathers took over and the result has been the avoidable evil system that has been imposed on us – monetized, unrepresentative of the people and lacking in character and values. However there is now an emerging paradigm shift in our political environment. That incipient change has been signposted by the #ENDSARS debacle. Unfortunately, our politicians have misread the signals. More surprises are surely on their way. So 2022 presages a bumpy ride into 2023. A cursory look at the characters who have dared to present themselves to the Nigerian people as candidates for the President of the Federal Republic, I flinch at the impudence. You cannot help but ask the question of how Nigeria has descended so low that touts, common thieves and layabouts with no character have determined to insult us. As the former President Chief Olusegun Obasanjo observed recently, more than half of them would be in jail today if the EFCC and the ICPC had done their duty. They may have their laugh but the Nigerian people will sooner or later, perhaps sooner than we can envisage or they may realise will surely have the last laugh. A saner society will definitely succeed the current maelstrom.
Despite all that has been said above there are some people who certainly take themselves so seriously that they have thrown their hats into the ring. Some would under some circumstances have been taken seriously but we are in an abnormal and uncertain times and what could have been acceptable yesterday are no longer tenable today. In this regard I will most sincerely apologise to three gentlemen whom I respect and have usually taken seriously. All three have held high office in Nigeria and one is still a Governor of his state. All three are founding members of the PDP who have accepted zoning as a political instrument to stabilize the nation. They are all now repudiating the instrument that gave them the opportunity to serve this nation in the first place. The first is His Excellency and Right Honourable Aminu Tambuwal. From the media, it is reported that he is now counselling the repudiation of that section of their party’s constitution that legitimizes zoning and his argument is hinged on the issue of merit. Let me say that you do not pluck merit out of the air. Merit is built on a foundation that can carry the superstructure of competitiveness, fairness, justice and equity. You are young, you are a lawyer and you are the incumbent governor of Sokoto State. The future is still ahead of you. The greatest service you can give to Nigeria AT THIS POINT IN TIME is to pull Sokoto State out from its lowly place as the poorest state that has the highest proportion of illiterate out of school children in our nation.
The second person is His Excellency Dr Bukola Saraki the scion of a great Nigeria. You are well educated and there is still a future. Before you have acquitted yourself honourably so far in your service to Nigeria but your present company among those who will ride roughshod over the constitution of your party in which your father helped in building the foundation of the party. On the basis of the character, legacy and duty I would plead that you reconsider your present posture.
The third and last of the three is the Wakili Adamawa and former Vice President of this nation. I am aware of your great services to our nation. You know that in the past I have supported your ambition. Only our creator knows why things have gone the way they have gone especially in 2019. My faith says under all circumstances it is well. I believe a time to build and invest on a different foundation is now and you are not lacking in younger friends who owe you loyalty and who can repay your support with unquantifiable goodwill. You can help build a better and a different nation. Through your support of younger leaders it can be done. Despite all that I have said as advice I remain independent of all party affliations: I am no party member.
Postscript
There has been a lot of discussion over the issue of zoning and no zoning. Section 7 (2) (c) of the PDP constitution states as follows; “…in pursuance of the principle of equity, justice and fairness, the party shall adhere to the policy of rotation and zoning of party and public elective offices..” Based on this article of the PDP constitution a parallel argument has been going on which insists that the next President to succeed President Buhari after eight years should be of Igbo extraction in pursuit of the principles of justice, fairness and equity. Some have countered that it is unconstitutional to deny Nigerian citizens the right to present themselves for office on the basis of their ethnic affiliation. Be that as it may merit and competence can be found in all zones of Nigeria if we sincerely look for them. We must under all circumstances go for competence and therefore recognize merit as an important criterion. If the best candidate happens to be Igbo that becomes an extra ace for Nigeria. The most trenchant case for the next President of Nigeria being from the South East zone has been made by Professor Hakeem Fawehinmi in the Guardian newspaper of 23 March 2022 as follows
“…with the expected power shift to the South at the end of President Buhari’s statutory eight year tenure, equity and national cohesion demands that the office of the President of Nigeria be ceded to the South East…this is because the South East is the only geopolitical zone in the South that is yet to produce a President or Vice President since the return to Civilian rule in 1999 and remains the most deprived…therefore in the eyes of equity it is imperative that all political parties rise above partisanship and regional sentiments and field presidential candidates from the South East in the forthcoming election. This is within the tenets of democratic norms and ideals especially in a pluralistic society like Nigeria. Egalitarianism cannot be fostered when a major component of society is nursing a feeling of discontentment. Hence the collective interest and sanctity of the Federal Republic should be of paramount concern over the political interest of the few individuals or groups or political party…”
Yet another notable columnist of the Vanguard in the issue of 24 March 2023 argues as follows; …”Atiku and his fellow Northern presidential aspirants such as Bukola Saraki and Aminu Tambuwal who helped cause PDP’s defeat in 2015 are behaving as if a Northerner has not been ruling Nigeria since 2015. They want another Northerner to succeed Buhari in 2023, presumably serving for eight years. Given that since independence in 1960 the North has ruled Nigeria under both the military and civilian regimes for 41 years out of the country’s 61 years, anything that stretches that political advantage is bound to be divisive. That is not mentioning the affront of a Northern President succeeding another Northern President…”
The argument has been made that the exception made for the South West in the zoning arrangements in 1999 was to address a particular situation: the question arises why was no special arrangement made to address the collosal damage and losses that the South East sustained as a result of the civil war? It is also pertinent to observe that in the same 1999 the presidential candidate of the ANPP and chairman of the party was Dr Ogbonnaya Onu who stood down for Olu Falae “in the national interest” Does it seem fair to expect that only Igbos make sacrifices in the national interest? A further question that has been raised is the following: what did the Northern elite do with the power in the 41 years that they wielded power especially when it is remembered that most states of the North are the poorest and have the greatest numbers of illiterate out of school children. The states that were designated as educationally disadvantaged have remained so in the last 40 years? We should not forget that President Jonathan attempted to address these questions with a Special Almajiri programme which the present Northerner’s government has abandoned.
Some have argued that the greatest losers in the disenfranchisement and marginalization of the Igbos is the Nigerian people because what the average Igbo man brings to the table are those normative values that drive achievement in the Igbo society and can drive same for all Nigerians. Incorporated in the national psyche it will become a pan-Nigerian system of values which will activate the spirit of entrepreneurship and will catalyse the environment for wealth creation. Integration and cohesion has been facilitated in many plural societies by enlarging the scope of those committed to a particular value system. After all myth making is also an instrument for integration in plural societies.In such societies management science has discovered and routinized the strategy of boundary spanning leadership to hasten integration of plural entities in order to harmonise their integration, cooperation and collaboration.
It has also been observed that Igbos are the most itinerant and mobile among the peoples of Nigeria. Wherever they go they make themselves welcome and integrate with the local population and will always invest in their new location and learn the local language. Given the national circumstances in the post-war period of Nigeria co-habitation with other peoples of Nigeria the Igbo nation has the tendency and the potential to contribute to the national pool more than it takes away. After all the wealth created from the twenty pounds given to each account holder then in the South East has multiplied a thousand fold under thrifty management and much of the wealth is now invested in the South West rather than the South East because the South West has been hospitable to Igbo investments. Thus it can be a win-win situation for all citizens.
Finally it should be stated that in some quarters it is the fear of revenge for the historical wrongs of Nigeria to the Igbos including the pogrom that some hesitate to give executive power to Igbos at the Federal level. Yet Igbos have served meritoriously in critical and strategic positions of trust in the post-civil war governments and they have discharged their responsibilities with distinction. The average Igbo man of the 21st century is more likely to pray for the wrong doer than to think of revenge. Indeed the shedding of blood is an abomination in their system of values. Investing in Igbo goodwill will increase the adhesiveness of the Igbo cement that will hold the Nigerian peoples together. After all in historical times the Igbos lived in peace with their neighbours of the Niger and Benue coastlands. Indeed the Yorubas, Igbos, Igalas, Bini and other southern peoples share common characteristics in their languages with the Igbo and they all belong, according to linguistic science to the Kwa sub-group of Niger-Congo languages of Africa. What is more, if Rwanda can heal after the sordid and barbaric slaughter they faced in the 1990s to the point of being a leading economy in Africa today surely Nigeria can do as well or better. We need to discover the Nigerian Kagames to heal our nation and solidify our nationhood. Cooperation and collaboration was the traditional norm in pre-colonial Igbo land can become the norm in the new Nigeria. I am done. God bless Nigeria and bless all the peoples of Nigeria.
•Professor Anya is former chief executive officer, Nigeria Economic Summit Group Limited