The long-awaited declaration of interest to contest the 2023 presidential election by Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo has taken place. It is no longer within the realms of speculation, or a matter discussed in hushed tones and “don’t say I told you” in the usual Nigerian gossip style. While making his declaration, Osinbajo, among other things, said: “I believe that the very reason why the Almighty God gave me these experiences, these insights, and these opportunities, is that they must be put to the use of our country and its great peoples. Which is why I am today, with utmost humility, formally declaring my intention to run for the Office of the President, Federal Republic of Nigeria, on the platform of our great party, the All Progressives Congress.”
While some people, especially Osinbajo’s ardent supporters, welcome the development and see it as a worthwhile project, others cannot be truly said to welcome or understand why the Vice President should take the plunge when his supposed political godfather, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, had long served notice of his intention to vie for the highest post in the country, his lifelong ambition. When a journalist sought his view on Osinbajo’s declaration, Tinubu quickly retorted: “I don’t have a son grown up enough to make such declaration.” The short and crisp response says so much about the not too cordial relationship between the duo, godson and the godfather, which is not new in Nigerian politics. Some see it as disowning his political godson. Others see it as a sign of things to come in the South West camp as the 2023 politics hots up. Some see it as the beginning of the fight to finish. After all, SG Ikoku contested election against his father, Alvan Ikoku, and won in the 1957 Eastern Region Assembly election.
Like some other declarations for the presidency, Osinbajo’s own came with a heavy bang because it is coming from the precincts of Aso Rock Villa. Some analysts believe that Osinbajo cannot make the declaration without the tacit support of the Oga of Aso Rock Villa. The new entrant is not a stranger to the seat of power. He has been there for over seven years.
He can now claim to know the scents, contours and texture of power. He can deliver a seminal and scientific paper with executive summary on how to serve a president loyally in Aso Rock without rancor and trying to outperform the master which some did last time at their eternal detriment. The law of power, according to Robert Green, is that you should not outshine your master. Osinbajo must have read Greene’s The 48 Laws of Power and must have internalised its eternal injunction, never outshine the master, that is don’t look better than your boss. that is you must see your boss as the best. He can write a book on the power play in Aso Rock and Survival Tips.
Political experience, especially at the presidential level is not an easy feat. It comes with a lot of experience, which cannot be compared. Yet, others are quick to point out that it is part of the game plan for the 2023 poll to complicate or spoil matters for some aspirants. But in politics nothing is so clear or sacrosanct that things cannot change. Politics is based on alliances and building of bridges and serving of diverse interests.
In a political season when primaries can be conducted through direct or indirect modes as well as the consensus mode, anything can happen. In politics, 24 hours is a long period within which anything can happen. Before publicly declaring his intention to run for the presidency, Osinbajo had earlier intimated Nigerians that he had notified his boss of his plan to join the race. After that, he continued consulting with other stakeholders across the country while his foot soldiers were busy doing the underground works. Osinbajo might have done a lot of calculations and sought the prayers, advice and support of those at the corridors of power and the powers that be in Nigeria before throwing his hat in the ring.
There was a time President Buhari disclosed that he would not reveal the candidate he would be supporting for certain reasons. Now that Osinbajo has declared for the presidential race, many people are asking if Osinbajo would be the anointed successor of President Muhammadu Buhari considering that he has served the president loyally for over seven years and carried out duties as assigned. In fact, both work like father and son, one is much older and one is younger with many academic degrees.
If there is anything Buhari regrets, it is coming to power at older age when the agility is no longer there. It is likely that Buhari will prefer a loyal and younger person, somebody below 70 years to succeed him. Remember some past leaders have said, Nigeria should be ruled by those below 70 as we approach the 2023 contest. If loyalty is the only factor to support a candidate for the topmost job, Osinbajo is not the only person that has served Baba so well and faithfully. Rotimi Amaechi, Chris Ngige, Ogbonnaya Onu, Godwin Emefiele, Raji Fashola, have also served Baba very well and loyally. I can go on and on. As Osinbajo is eminently qualified to run for the post, other candidates have the right to run for the post too. It is a game of the survival of the fittest. The way the APC politics is going, it appears, Baba has given all of them blessings to contest and let the winner be. If that is the body language of Aso Rock, it is good and fine. But in our peculiar Nigerian politics, it may not be so. That is why analysts will still speculate over the ongoing political developments and arrive at their own conclusions. One good development about the 2023 presidential contest is that more and more credible Nigerians are coming out for the contest in both the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC). Whichever way the power pendulum swings, Nigeria and Nigerians will be better for it. With many candidates offering themselves for the highest job in the country, the voters would not have restricted choices as in other past election seasons. The more the candidates, the merrier the exercise will become.
This is the time the candidates will market themselves to Nigerians, the electorate by showcasing what they have done and what they should do for Nigeria if given the chance. This is never the time for bickering or undue fighting over party tickets. Nigeria has about 18 political parties, which are eligible to contest for the poll.
The political field is so big to contain all the political players. Since the APC has apparently settled for zoning the presidency to the South, the PDP must stop the break dancing over the issue and zone its presidency to the South. The PDP should listen to its supporters and zone the presidency to the South. Let politicians practice politics without bitterness and rancor. For this nascent democracy to endure, party primaries must be free, fair and credible.
And if the political parties get their primaries right, it will definitely rub-off on the conduct of the 2023 polls by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Above all, the Federal Government must ensure that security is restored in all parts of the country so that the current bloodletting across the country will be stopped forthwith. Without adequate security, it is not likely that the 2023 elections will hold.