By Omoniyi Salaudeen

Politics, in the words of Ernest Benn (1875-1954), “is the art of looking for trouble and finding it whether it exists or not.” This characterization aptly fits into the mood of the political class in Nigeria who sees election as a do-or-die affair. In particular, the recent attack on Agbaji family house of the Senate President, Bukola Saraki, by some hoodlums believed to be working for a particular political party in the state is another sad reminder of desperation of politicians in their quest for power. No fewer than 11 people were reportedly injured and about 50 vehicles destroyed in the incident.

The violence was the anticlimax of the political rivalry between the Saraki Political Dynasty, which is bent on maintaining the status quo and the forces of change. Inherited from his father, Saraki has been the defacto kingmaker in Kwara State for almost 15 years. But recently, due to the apparent disequilibrium in the power equations in the state, there has been a groundswell of opposition against the suzerainty of the dynasty. This has now found an expression in the popular slogan of the All Progressives Congress (APC)-‘O to ge’ (Enough is enough), an indication that Saraki may be in for a tough fight in the coming general elections. Since 2003 when he emerged in the political scene, he alone has been dictating the shots. No one gets elected or appointed without his anointing.

In doing so, Saraki is obviously carrying the banner of his late father, Abubakar Olusola Saraki, who single handedly decided the nomination of all governors who had governed the state. In 1978/79, the Second Republic Senator, all alone, propped up Adam Attah as elected governor of the defunct Kwara on the platform of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN). When the later became too difficult for him to control, he plotted against his second term ambition, formed an alliance with the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) and ensured the victory of its candidate in the 1983 election, Cornelius Adebayo, whose reign was short-lived by the military coup of December 31, 1983.           

At the advent of the present political dispensation in 1998, the late Oloye aligned with the defunct All People’s Party (APP) and contributed to its success in Kwara and Kogi States. He assisted Mohammed Alabi Lawal in becoming Governor of Kwara State. In 2003, he switched allegiance to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and supported his son, Bukola Saraki, as candidate for governor of Kwara state, and his daughter Gbemisola R. Saraki as senator for Kwara State Central.  

With the new development, Senator Saraki, who until recently was a member of the ruling APC before he reunited with the opposition PDP, needs to prove that he still has a stronghold on the State. As the head of the presidential campaign council for the 2019 elections, he needs to deliver a good vote for the candidate of the party, Atiku Abubakar, to guarantee continued existence of the dynasty in the State.

Already, the defeat suffered by PDP at the just concluded by-election for the Ekiti/Oke-Ero/Irepodun/Isin federal constituency has dealt a big blow to the invincible power of the dynasty in the State. For the first time, Saraki had a taste of defeat, as the candidate of the APC, Raheem Olawuyi, emerged the winner of the bye election, defeating Saheed Alatise of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).  According to the INEC, Olawuyi polled 21,236 to emerge winner, while Alatise scored 18,095. Both Saraki and Ahmed blamed the defeat on alleged irregularities that characterized in the election, saying security agencies connived to ensure victory for the APC candidate. Since the Senate President was elected governor in 2003, the political machinery across the state has been at his beck and call; and has efficiently deplored it just like his father before him.

Some analysts see the result of the bye election as a bad omen for the Saraki dynasty, waiting to see how events will unfold in the 2019 general elections. Kwara State is a multi-ethnic state with the Southern Senatorial District largely dominated by the Yoruba, while a mixture of Yoruba and Fulani straddle the Central district, leaving the Nupes, Barubas and Hausa in the Northern Senatorial district.

A member of the PDP, who spoke with Sunday Sun, said the decision to withdraw Kwara South senatorial ticket from Governor Ahmed and giving it back to the current serving Senator Rafiu is part of the new strategy by the Senate President to stave off the threat of defeat stirring him in the face ahead of the coming election.

The signal coming from the North Senatorial District is also not looking too good for the dynasty. Here, Senator Shaaba Lafiagi, a former governor of the state and fanatical supporter of Saraki, recently had a taste of people’s resentment against the dynasty. Piqued by his blind support for the Senate President, Lafiagi  

was driven out of home town by irate youths in his constituency.

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In the same, his counterpart in the House of Representatives Hon. Zakari Muhammed, who is also Saraki’s loyalist from Kaiama/Baruteen Federal Constituency in the Northern axis of the state, had to bear in a hard way the brunt of his political affiliation with the man they fondly call “Leader.” He was also attacked and prevented from entering his constituency by irate youths who insisted on a change of the status quo.  Coincidentally, both lawmakers are from Kwara North Senatorial District which is increasingly becoming the hotbed of politics.

In order to appease the stakeholders in the North, Sunday Sun gathered that Saraki had agreed to zone positions of Head of Service and Secretary to the State Government to the district. A source close to the party hierarchy who pleaded anonymity said:  

 “Saraki recently held a meeting with the people of Kwara North where they reached an agreement to concede positions of Secretary to the State Government and Head of Service to the district. For political expediency, he also promised them that the coming governor will spend only one term.” Whether or not this will be enough to pacify the people is a matter to watch out for in the coming election.  

 

As for Kwara South, two things are likely to work against the interest of Saraki. One is the fact that the zone has always been an exclusive enclave of the opposition party. Over the years, the people have always resisted Sarak’s domination. And now that the Minister of Information and Culture, Alhaji Lai Muhammed, has emerged the leader of the opposition party in the State, every effort will be made to dislodge the last vestiges of the Saraki dynasty. A member of the APC who spoke with Sunday Sun enthused: “Alhaji Lai is the leader of APC in Kwara State and you would have to be completely ignorant about Kwara politics to underrate the APC that the Minister is leading in Kwara State”.

The second factor is the Offa robbery incident. Offa has the second largest population in Kwara. They are yet to come to terms with the alleged police report linking the Senate President to the incident. Although the senatorial candidate of the PDP is from the area, there is a strong feeling that majority of the electorate will use the coming election to register their protest against Saraki. Preparatory to the election, a new group, Concerned Nigerians Against Saraki (CNAS), has emerged, calling for a change of status quo.  

Sunday Sun finding further showed that Kwara Central may also not be an easy walkover for Saraki in this coming election. According to a reliable source close to the dynasty, the rising popularity of the APC, especially among the youths is giving PDP supporters a serious concern.  His words: In Ilorin today, APC has become a formidable party that you can only ignore at your own peril. From my observation, it is difficult to predict which party is going to win the election. But you cannot rule out the possibility of last minute change of political equation because community heads like the Dawodus, the Mogajis are largely for Saraki. At the last minute, they can influence the youths through persuasive means to sway their votes in favour of the PDP candidates. But for now, majority of the people are mouthing support for the APC. The youths in particular are tired of the old order; they want a change of the status quo.

“As a matter of personal opinion, I still believe Saraki will win, but it is not going to be an overwhelming victory as it used to be in the past. Don’t forget, there are a number of factors that influence voting pattern in an election. These include money and political patronage. Just yesterday, the PDP released a list of new appointments. In one way or the other, this will go a long way to boost the support of the party because the beneficiaries of the appointments and their relations will want to reciprocate the gesture by ensuring that the party is returned to power, at least, for the security of their jobs. For me, this is strategic because the intension really is to woo the most vocal opposition groups among the youths. And I think they have succeeded in doing that to a large extent.”

As the candidates of the ruling PDP in the State and the opposition APC, Abdulrazak Atunwa and Abulrahman Abdulrasaq respectively, prepare for the epic battle ahead of the governorship contest, political watchers are eager to see what will be the fate of the Saraki dynasty.  Coincidentally, the two candidates are from Ilorin, the Kwara State capital. While Atunwa, a current member of the House of Representatives belongs to the political dynasty of Senate President Bukola Saraki, Mallam Abdulrasaq is an oil magnate. The general belief is that he (Abdulrasaq) would square up to Saraki money for money, votes for votes.

However, one big issue which is giving the stakeholders a serious concern is the issue of violence and neutrality of the security operatives during the election. In a statement issued following the recent violence incident in Ilorin, the Police said “the Force will continue to be apolitical and will ensure adequate security throughout the country for all political parties, their members and supporters before, during and after the 2019 general election.” The hope is that the new Acting Inspector General of Police will show commitment to the peaceful conduct of the election without any form of intimidation or harassment based on party affiliation.