By Chukwudi Nweje
Professor of Strategy and Development, Anthony Kila is the Director, Lagos based international graduate school, Centre for International Advanced Professional Studies (CIAPS). In this interview, he discussed the problems with Nigeria’s political structure and the need for transparency and ideological politics.
What is your impression of the process that produced the presidential candidates of the various political parties, what lessons can be learnt from there?
Firstly, it is a good thing that the primaries were peaceful, there was neither fighting nor bloodshed, however, there are still some cold war going on. My prediction is that at some time, there will be some realignment because there are some unsettled matter. We should give kudos on personal level to those that emerged at the primaries. If you look at the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), for instance, a lot could be said about the ability of the winner to get consensus. Sokoto State governor, Alhaji Aminu Tambuwal practically crowned Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. From all permutations, Atiku had the votes but Tambuwal crowned him when he stepped down and urged his supporters to vote the former vice president. I think the reason is because this is the last time Atiku is expected to hold the party together. I don’t believe in age discrimination but I would have preferred a younger person.
I will also congratulate the winner of the All Progressives Congress (APC) winner, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu because at some point, it seemed as if there was some gang-up against him, but he pulled through which shows his strength as a political leader. I don’t know about the rest of the population, but I don’t see a fundamentally new person among these candidates that have emerged. They are all more of the same to me. Personally, I will want a radical departure from where we are now, but I don’t see the candidates from the major political parties taking us there.
However, what is innate is that for the first time since 1999, we are going to have more than two national parties. It must be said that up till 2014 for the election of 2015, only the PDP was a national party. The APC emerged as a national party in 2014 because it was formed out of a coalition of parties that covered the entire country and was able to defeat PDP, so for the first time since 1999, we had two national parties, APC and PDP. I believe that the Peter Obi-led Labour Party might become a national party as well; it has enough time to build its structure to become a national party. If it goes into a coalition as we hear they plan to do, then they stand a formidable chance, and we may have a chance of at least having three or four national parties; that is what has come out of the primaries so far.
The entire exercise was marred by vote buying, what do you think of that?
There is always suspicion of vote buying because of the Nigerian factor; this is a very sad thing, it is a shame that has marred our democracy, and is something our political leaders really need to take seriously. They can address it if they want; if they agree among themselves that they will not buy or bribe to get power, it will end, but I’m not optimistic they will.
What is responsible for this issue of buying votes?
We don’t really have a democracy of peers; we have some sort of plutocracy rather than a democracy. We have a few people who are far richer and stronger than the many that are contending and we have made money a factor in the competition. To solve this, we need to create an institution where money is not so influential. It is a very complex situation because if you don’t bribe, you will have zero votes like we saw in the cases of Dele Momodu and Pastor Tunde Bakare. It is obvious that to get votes, you have to bribe and bend the system. To end this, politicians have to decide not to bend the rules again and we, the people have to look at every candidate as a candidate, and beyond the aspiration, maybe we should start calling them out. There has to be a moral rebellion, so may be the people have to force them.
Peter Obi emerged presidential candidate of Labour Party within 72 hours that he left the PDP, what do you say about that?
You have to understand three things; one is that politicians no matter how gentle they appear are in it for power and will do anything to get that power. As students of politics, we must always remember that. The second thing is that it shows you that there are no ideological differences between our political parties. Political parties here are just like taxis, you pick them, get to where you want and move on, there is no ideological commitment in our political parties. You cannot switch from being a Christian to being a Moslem that easily, let alone switching and becoming the leader. You cannot leave a church and go into a mosque and become the Imam; you cannot also leave the mosque and enter the church to become the bishop, there are serious things involved. It shows that in Nigerian political parties, there is nothing involved, you just go there and take over. The third is that we don’t have a democracy of peers; if there had been strong people in the Labour Party, they wouldn’t have ceded the presidential ticket to Peter Obi so easily; as you can see, nobody could just walk into APC or PDP and pick the presidential ticket.
Labour Party has been witnessing lots of activities since Peter Obi’s emergence as standard bearer; do you think the party can pose a serious challenge to the status quo?
Yes, if well managed, and it is a serious if. The party still has time to build formidable structures in the 36 states and 774 local government areas in Nigeria. They can make serious in-roads because one, there are lots of disaffection with the ruling party and the major opposition and secondly, there is a possibility of harnessing fresh voters who don’t normally vote and with good planning and management, Labour Party can actually make an impact at the general election. Money is going to be their problem, but money is always a problem so the party needs to find a way to manage the problems that will arise from money, security, awareness and other issues.
It must also try hard to be seen as a national party and not a sectional or personal party. It is a test of leadership for Labour Party; if they can pass these tests, they will make a strong statement. Labour needs to give out a strong convincing message to show the people capacity and promise of good returns if they are voted. They need to mobilise voters who will vote and make sure their votes count. It may not be easy but it is doable; President Emmanuel Macron did it in France.
What do you think of this issue of place holder in the search for vice presidential candidates, and cases where failed presidential aspirants try to become Senatorial candidates even when they did not participate in the primary of their party?
We need to separate two things, someone who vied for say the office of governor and lost can legitimately go and vie for another position; it is different from someone who did not partake in a primary and now wants to be the candidate for the position that primary was meant, it is criminal. We, the people who are direct victims of such practice should not allow it because the idea that someone contested a primary and another name appears on the ballot is a blow to democracy.
The law allows place-holding because they have up to 90 days before the election to submit names of candidates, but it is not a good thing for our democracy, morally bad and sets a bad precedent. An aspirant, from the day he started to nurse the idea to run for office, should have an idea of who he wants as running mate; that is a test of competency. You should be able to convince your party that this is the right running-mate, that is a test of your capacity, and you have to be able to stand on your word; that is a test of your leadership as a strong candidate. If you start struggling with the choice of running mate, it shows that you are not prepared. The who and how your running mate emerged is the first test of how presidential a candidate is and failing it is a minus.
What is your take on the debate over the possibility of APC going with a Muslim-Muslim ticket?
Personally, in knowledge and in conscience, I think religion should not be a factor in deciding who leads a country. But practically, I see it being a factor, and I think that is the problem the APC presidential candidate has. He is a Muslim southerner and lots of people are pushing him to bring a Christian running mate. There is sort of this convention that the ticket should have geopolitical balance, and because Bola Tinubu is from the South and a Muslim, the argument is that his running mate should be a northern Christian. Tinubu’s calculation now is whether he will find a Christian northerner that will earn him votes; don’t forget that the same argument that he is a southern Muslim was used against him as Buhari’s running mate. We are waiting to see if he will make the same argument for himself.
The President Muhammadu Buhari administration is on its last lap; looking back at his three cardinal pillars – security, economy and anti corruption, what do you see?
There is no other way to put it, President Buhari’s administration has failed in the area of security. Has the administration done its best, are they doing a lot? May be, but there is no tangible result. A place is either secured or it is not. Nigeria is not secured and I don’t think it is safer than it was before the administration took over. Some people argue that it could have been worse if the Goodluck Jonathan had continued, I don’t know, but what I know is that it has never been this bad. We had serious security issues under Jonathan, which was why we brought this administration. The serious security issues under Jonathan was confined to the North East, but now it is everywhere. To that extent, this administration has failed on security. In the area of the economy, the indices have become so terrible; cost of production, price of consumption, forex rate is worse than ever, rate of employment or unemployment and ease of doing business, the country is not doing well. There is low income and high cost of living. I think the president’s approach to anti corruption is archaic. There is a fundamental flaw in our fight against corruption. The fundamental flaw is that there is no underlining philosophy that changes our mode of operation. One good thing it has is the single treasury account, but we need to follow up; if you want to fight corruption, you have to address three things, one is scarcity, the reason why people beg, bribe, and abuse the process is because there is scarcity. Second, you need to fight uncertainty, and make sure the system is working. Finally, you need to lead by example. There are many people around the administration that are not seen as clean. I cannot score the administration good on the war against corruption; if anything, the Transparency International has even downgraded Nigeria on its index.
What advice can you offer to the electorate, INEC and the incoming administration as 2023 approaches?
The electorate should really think of what they want and go for it. They must see themselves as an interested party in the process and based on that, they should aim before they vote, they should examine the ability of the candidates to do what they need. The electorate must also be ready to defend their votes. INEC must find and live up to their calling, they must know that the politicians who want to corrupt the process are few while the people are many. INEC must approach politicians knowing that they are capable of bending the rules, corrupt politicians should be treated as criminals. I think moving on, the administration coming in needs to make security a priority. This is not because we want to stress them, but because without security, there can be nothing else, you cannot trade, you cannot plan, in fact, nothing else can work.