Three events or developments that happened in the last few days tell me we have entered very perilous times indeed. taking the lessons of history, the coming days look terribly bleak. Ominous signs are so thick in the air one can cut it with a knife. Factors that turned Somalia to a failed nation state are with us and each day they are increasing in complexity. Somalia is a homogeneous in composition yet bad thinking, wrong perception and pursuits led to shredding of whatever held the centre together, as we saw things began to fall apart.
Decades and running, the situation has continued to deteriorate to the point it is beginning to look like a case of total destruction, with perhaps no solution. We can also for purpose of bringing our point home very well put Rwanda, a country on southern fringes of Africa in focus: a tiny country enjoying her peace until ethnic jingoists stepped in and initiated unhealthy tussles and recriminations in the form of negative politics. One group went after another and before anyone knew it, tribal chieftains in power, out of pure mischief promoted hatred which birthed contestations that finally crystallized into genocide the kind never seen in the entire continent before then. Savergery became a new normal. State security forces were lined out on one side against the very people that employed them. So it was too in Sudan when a religiously plural country got leaders who equated themselves and their narrow vision for the state. Not long after things began going out of order. It began in small unserious manner with one aberration leading to another.
Those in power thought themselves gods and in this garb they considered themselves above the people and the law of the land. It wasn›t long they began a bold attempt to institute tyranny of opinion, they had a perspective and worldview and that was to be all and end all, anybody or group with different view was an enemy to be confronted, abused and subdued. We have heard of «wailing wailers» here. Not so? In the Sudan example they recruited urchins and as may be expected unleashed them against citizens courageous enough to hit streets to demand that state affairs be properly managed. That dastardly trend has had awful repetition in our clime very recently.
We saw similar thing in Operation Python Dance in South East when unarmed citizens were shot and killed on account of talking about self-determination. If this approach were to be universally acceptable by now no life would be standing in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland; we saw it again at the Lekki Toll Gate incident in Lagos and the latest in Governor Nasir el-Rufai’s Kaduna State about four days ago, where citizens were not only descended on by hoodlums and brutalized but a nasty demeaning scenario where security agents watched or even aided the dispersal of authentic protesters while on the other side offering protection to hired hands. Nothing can be more telling than this; it is a signpost to bad times. If history is a reliable guide, recall before this in same state, state security forces had violently clamped down on a religious procession by Shiites killing over 300 citizens just for blocking a highway.
In the two examples, part of the slow march into disorder included tinkering with the military instructions. Dictators who end up ruining their societies do understand the power game and do know one very important lesson which is the military institution is the fulcrum of any power calculation, so they not only hold on tight to it, they as well try to reconfigure the structure and mentality away from loyalty to the nation to obedience to the head of government. In this convulated atmosphere, regime survival passes for national security. This strategy has destroyed many countries like Italy and Russia not excluding our two examples of Rwanda and Sudan; it was more telling in the latter where medieval governance divided the country and gave the world a new country in South Sudan. That South Sudan has continued to experience turbulence is neither here or there. The architect of the misfortune, General Al-Bashir did not only fall from power, he is in prison.
Looking back home we can›t deny that the situation is turning out exactly the same. There is a group in power with sectarian ideology and agenda. Scrutinize some of the president›s policies, such as cattle routes, cattle colonies in 36 states, removal of church leaders, place of Christian religious studies, Corporate Affairs Commission and power to regulate churches, herdsmen menace, free entry to all, and then listen to Senate President Ahmed Lawan and Attorney General of the Federation, Malami, every indication suggests they are committed to pursuing this narrow interest even if it turns out to be at the expense of the people and their lives. This administration has alienated sections of the society perhaps out of omission, lack of adequate comprehension or outright deliberate mischief, whichever one it is the result is counter-productive. It is like the Igbo and some parts of the Middle Belt have run into a curse and therefore have a price to pay.
This government has from the word go placed the security architecture and command in the hands of one group. Not to mention the Judiciary where it had to virtually organize a «coup» to upstage a Southern minority and return control to a member of her group. The legislature is no different. Penultimate week governors in Southern Nigeria, all of diverse political parties, met for first time after over 10 years. While these leaders sought for refuge in conspiratorial passivity, their northern counterparts glowed on, holding meetings and giving tough conditions indicative of the balance of power in a badly structured society that has classification of citizens.
That hitherto reticent governors defied odds to meet is enough to tell there is python in the house. Citizens are apprehensive, yes but for these leaders to defy political gravity and meet is a proof that there are things they know we ordinary people don›t know. Their resolutions is suggestive of season of anomie. They deserve big applause. Genuine democracy demands such gathering on a fairly regular basis. Senate President Lawan’s reaction exposed an unhealthy mindset. By his hasty negative reaction he confirmed fears that the National Assembly cannot undertake a thorough Constitutional Amendment. In addition, he totally missed the point when he told the governors they are not to talk in public. Elected leaders in a democracy not to hold public views or positions? That would be a different democratic order not democracy.
Their meeting was normal and in fact an idea whose time was right. It restored confidence and direction, this was why it received wide acclaim; those against it are real enemies of our society. The communique is recipe for a glorious future. The President is an absentee leader, he seems to have challenges we gloat over. He does not travel within the society and hardly communicates himself. That is not the best practice. We have heard it is his style, it is a very retrogressive one not suitable for the time we are in.
They told him organize a dialogue, nothing wrong in gathering leaders and ask what he is doing right or what they think the people need? We can ask people to summarize past resolutions of past conferences and see to their immediate implementation. As it is currently we are in trouble and yet no effort whatsoever to find any solution outside application of force and taking life away from fellow countrymen. Dialogue will redirect everything and produce a country that will run on justice, equity and fair play. It will remove the undemocratic tendencies and language that are popping up daily. Now we hear security operators say, «deal with them ruthlessly.” Elected governors tell civil protesters, “you have used your last weapon it won’t change anything, I won’t back down. I declare you wanted.” Governors are not police but they are declaring citizens wanted. Bad trends, negative signals. One great speech can detonate the tension in the land, add to it consultation and dialogue and the dark clouds turn sunny once again.