I found a simple way to determine who to vote for president in 2023, what I call the 12-way test. In a previous essay, I took the position that it did not matter who wins among the three Front runners. This however did not mean that I do not have a preference among them.
Here is how I made up my mind about who to vote for among the frontrunners. It was difficult at first because all three frontrunners for the 2023 Nigerian presidential election are billionaires. They also come packaged with verifiable public and private sector records of service. And then of course, I worked with one of the candidates for whom I develop a soft spot.
What decided for me was after the media laid bare not only their records of service but also their individual private records before and during their stint as public officers. And so now we know enough to come to a decision. I made my decision after examining the evidence presented in the public square.
For most people, I included, perception is image and image are everything. And so, I have asked myself a dozen questions about who the best candidate for the job is based on my perception of their public image.
Here is a caveat: I should not presume to tell adults who to vote for as president in 2023. I’m only communicating how I made my decision which can be of assistance to those yet to make up their minds. I posed the following dozen questions, and they assisted me in coming to a decision about who to vote for.
I asked myself which among the three leading candidates is generally perceived as:
1. A person of integrity, measured by the perception that he did not steal public funds while in office?
2. Not greedy, measured by the perception that he had the opportunity but chose not to acquire land, public buildings, and other public assets?
3. Prudent, measured by the perception that he is most likely to reduce the cost of governance through personal example?
4. Has managerial ability, measured by the perception that he deals decisively with governance issues, including security matters?
5. Has financial discipline, measured by the perception that he does not currently own several houses abroad and is least likely to be spending a lot of private time outside Nigeria if elected?
6. Is most fit and healthy, measured by the perception that he will not become a drain on public funds to manage their health abroad from Day One in office?
7. Is most creative as a manager, measured by the perception that he set records in managing education, for instance, and likely to fix the rot in the public education sector?
8. Is empathetic, judging by public perception of his record in health and social welfare, including creating institutions that reduced medical tourism in his state.
9. Is globally competitive, judged from the local and international awards for giant strides in education, health, and infrastructure?
10. Has capacity, based on the perception that he will manage the Nigerian economy to save rather than mismanage to end up borrowing?
11. Is entrepreneurial as reflected in the perception that he set a local record of investing in viable industries that attracted FDI and created jobs?
12. Is the freest of corruption image based on the perception that his name has not been bandied about by EFCC and Code of Conduct Bureau on account of his role in public office.
An honest reflection on these questions will yield the conclusion that there is one among them that singularly checks the box on 75 percent of the issues. I don’t know about you, dear reader, but this is what common sense tells me about the frontrunners. However, and strangely enough, my heart told me not to vote for this person! Do you get this: one of the candidates checks more than 9 of the 12 boxes but my heart stayed with one of the two other candidate who scored less than 40 percent by my assessment.
So, what was the matter with me? There are two ways to look at this.
We once did a private survey which showed that, on political matters, more people normally look at the last name of a writer before reading a post on controversial matters. The results showed that a person’s last name is a good predictor of their position on controversial political issues (62.5%), including their voting choices (75%).
Firstly, this survey found that there are three motivations that drive voting behavior in Nigeria – mercenary (40%), ethno-religious (48%), ethical (6%) and others (6%).
It was a sobering exercise for me. What this meant was that, in Nigeria, there is a three-quarter likelihood of me (an Igbo) rooting for my ethnic kinsman or church brethren in a national election. Conversely, ethical voters – those who vote on character and issues rather than where a candidate comes from – are in the minority. In other words, a person named Yomi is more likely to vote Yoruba, an Igwe Igbo and a Hassan Hausa-Fulani. One may also to are also easily accused of being mercenary if their support is anything but.
Secondly, the survey also found that there is a general tendency to pay more attention to a Yomi that supports an Atiku or Igwe that backs Tinubu if there is no perception that mercenary considerations drove their support.
Here is the thing. There is a common perception that ethno-religious and mercenary motivations brought President Muhammadu Buhari to power in 2015. In 2022, this motivation is at the root of the cry of emi lokan. Today, there is also a perception, right or wrong, that both Atiku and Tinubu are pushing the buttons to fully activate and win the election on the same motivation. While Obi, for instance, publicly asks people not to vote for him because he is Igbo, Tinubu pretends he does not know that one of the major campaign planks in the southwest is the hushed cries of “ Yoruba roonu by his strategists.
Sadly, many Nigerians from the major ethnic groups have been conditioned to think in the selfish, group or religious interest. There is general agreement that this is the major reason why Nigeria is where it is now – in a place where the overwhelming majority are denied the privilege of living and thriving ironically by those they voted for out of selfishness, ethnic pride and on grounds of religion.
All good people who are concerned about halting the slide in Nigeria should work to ensure that in February 2023, the best man for the job wins. Depending on who you are, what you see, and how you are approached, this best man could be any of the trio of Abubakar, Obi, and Tinubu. The answer is obvious and what you and I are going to do in February 2023 is either clear in our mind or tugging at our conscience.
God bless Nigeria.
