By Omoniyi Salaudeen
The threat of election-induced violence consistently being raised by the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof Yakubu Mahmood, though may appear to some people as an exaggerated alarm, but it has become a clear and imminent danger. The signs are ominous. And the alarm can no longer be ignored. While the INEC boss has continued to reiterate the commitment of his leadership to conduct a free, fair and credible election in 2023, a number of obstacles are piled on his way.
Already, there is a report that over eight million arms are in illegal hands in Nigeria. In this election season, these arms are likely to be used to perpetrate violence against political opponents or be deployed to change the will of the voting public.
It could also be part of the reasons there is an escalation of violence in the various parts of the country as tempo of campaign activities by political parties increases.
On Thursday, November 17, the Inspector General of Police, Usman Alkali Baba, amplified the threat of terror attacks, alleging that some governors were responsible for violence in the political party rallies in their respective states.
He further disclosed that 52 political violence cases had been recorded since the beginning of the 2023 presidential campaigns.
The police boss made the disclosure, while speaking with political parties, INEC and other stakeholders in Abuja.
Out of these incidents, the one that readily comes to mind is the recent attack on the campaign convoy of the former Vice President and presidential candidate of the PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in Borno.
His convoy was said to have been pelted by thugs on his way to the palace of the Shehu of Borno.
In the ensuing crisis, several vehicles were said to have been vandalised while 70 persons were hospitalised. The Borno State PDP Chairman, Zamna Gaddama alleged that the attack was carried out by some miscreants from the APC.
But a quick denial came from the APC.
Before the incident, Atiku’s team had come under similar attack during a rally in Kaduna on October 17. This followed the Zamfara State incident leading to the death of one person while several others sustained injuries.
The pattern of these attacks suggests a clear evidence of political motivation by some desperate actors.
Worried by this development, the IGP, therefore, warned that the security forces would not hesitate to deal decisively with anyone caught in the act of violence, noting that the trend constituted a threat to the electoral process.
“This meeting became expedient following a noticeable trend within the national political space, which if not promptly addressed could evolve into a potent threat not just to our national security, but also the electoral process,” he said.
Characteristic of the do-or-die attitude of the Nigerian political class, every election season has always come with apprehension about the threat of violence.
What is, however, most worrisome in the current transition process is that the alarm bell is consistently coming from the electoral umpire itself. This is understandably so because of the incessant attacks on the Commission’s offices and facilities by men of the underworld who are bent on setting the country on fire before the next general election holding on February 25, 2023.
The latest in the series of violent attacks on the Commission’s office is the incident in Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, by gunmen.
According to available report, 65, 000 PVCs were destroyed in the attack.
Prior to this incident, several similar occurrences had been recorded in some other parts of the country, especially in the Southeast.
Early this year, the INEC chairman said that 11 offices, 1,105 ballot boxes, 694 voting cubicles, 429 electric generating sets and 13 Toyota Hilux vehicles had been lost mainly in the South Eastern part of the country.
Why INEC remains a target of attacks still battles a lot of people. There is a plausible reason to blame the trend on some people who don’t want elections to be conducted or want to create crisis that will lead to voters’ apathy.
In either case, what INEC has to contend with is more than violent attacks on its offices. The Commission is worried not only by the attacks on its offices, but also by the emerging trend of party supporters being attacked by opposing parties as well as over 600 court cases it has to grapple with along with the transition process.
In the circumstance, the Commission has to decide whether to obey its own procedure or to yield to the decision of the courts whether fair or not.
Its dilemma is further compounded by the fact that there are several layers of courts that determine these cases.
Sometimes, it has to wait for the matter to be decided by the Supreme Court. Beyond that, some of its vital assets that have been destroyed also have to be replaced with money that could have been used to do something useful.
General Ishola Williams (rtd) while speaking with Sunday Sun, lent credence to IGP’s position on the culpability of the political class in the spate of violence that has characterised the electoral process and political party campaigns.
His words: “It is worrisome that people are now destroying INEC offices. There is no place in Nigeria where people don’t know who political party thugs are. Go to motor parks, you will find them. Go to markets, you will find them there. Most of the time, it is politicians that give them instructions to do what they are doing. A group of boys cannot just wake up one morning and say they are going to destroy INEC office. Somebody in that particular area must have instructed them with an inducement of money to do what they have done. Therefore, the police and the ordinary people must work together to checkmate the menace of political thugs. The truth of the matter is that there are no unknown thugs in Nigeria. They are known.
“As you can see, the IGP has directed that all INEC offices must be protected. All security agencies have to step up intelligence gathering. It is even very important now with our present situation because without adequate intelligence we are going to be in a very serious trouble. In doing so, they have to cooperative with each other. With full cooperation, they should be able to contain some of the challenges we are having now,” he said.
General Williams, however, allayed the fear being expressed in some quarters that the election might be marred by violence.
“Every season of election in Nigeria always becomes with apprehension. We raise alarm, but at the end of the day, election will come and go. Even when election was postponed because of the security situation in the Northeast in 2015, at the end of the day, elections held. What is the difference between what is happening now and what happened in the past? I do not see any area in Nigeria where there will be no election especially in the Southern part of the country,” he said.
Reacting to the promise by President Muhammadu Buhari to leave a legacy of free, fair and credible election, he added: “The president cannot monitor election to see whether the people are voting properly or not voting properly. With the electronic system we are using, it is only the INEC that can rig election. So, to a very large extent, the conduct of a free and fair election is the soul prerogative of the INEC. Again, our judges are increasingly becoming bold in their judgments. And you can see this in the way they are cancelling the results of primary elections. If they continue like that, nobody can rig this election.”
A chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and former member of the National Assembly, who represented Ogun Central Senatorial District between 2011-2015, Senator Gbenga Obadara, while also commending the proactive measure taken by the IGP, expressed concern over the escalation of violence, saying that the trend could lead to over-stretching of security forces.
“My fear still remains. From the look of things, we are going to over-stretch the security forces. Instead of keeping watchful eyes on the situation in the country, maintaining peace and security, they will be deployed to all these places where there may be likelihood of violence. And we know already that we have short supply of security forces. It is a very disappointing situation that we have to use all our security men to police INEC offices all over the country,” he said.
Ebenezer Babatope, a former member of the Board of Trustees (BoT) of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), on his part, called on the APC to join hands with President Buhari to fulfill his promise to leave a legacy of free and fair election.
He said: “I am very baffled and perturbed by this development. Honestly, I don’t know what those who are burning INEC offices want to derive from all of these. This goes beyond party issue, it goes beyond partisanship. I want to appeal to all Nigerians to please give peace a chance. Burning of property of INEC will not solve any problem at all. All of us in Nigeria must be conscious of the need to have peace to guarantee a free and fair election. We must resolve that we are going to have peace. It portends disaster, it portends danger. It doesn’t speak well for anybody. And APC must be aware that it is currently on trial.
“They must guarantee peace and stability of the country. They must cooperate with President Muhammadu Buhari to maintain peace. I am convinced that President Buhari wants development for this country. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is the presidential candidate of the APC, must guarantee that there is peace. I am not speaking for President Buhari, but I am convinced that he wants a peaceful conduct of the election. During his recent trip to the UK, he assured King Charles that he would conduct a free and fair election. And this is why I am calling on the APC to cooperate with the president to ensure that he leaves a legal of credible election.
“I am particular about the conduct of the APC because APC is the ruling party in Nigeria. Atiku was attacked in Borno, there was also a similar attack on the PDP in Kaduna State during their rally. It is not going to do anybody any good if we have a disorder in the country.”
For Mr Jackson Olalekan-Ojo, a security expert, it is imperative at this time for the government to dialogue with self-determination groups to be able to guarantee the conduct of a peaceful election.
According to him, if the leaders of these groups resolve that there will be no election in their areas of influence, it will be difficult to sustain peace for a credible election.
“Government must find time to dialogue with the leaders of self-determination groups because if they insist that there will be no election in their areas, there is every likelihood that there will be no election. For instance, millions of people in the Southwest believe in the agitation for Oduduwa Republic being championed by Sunday Igboho. Though they are calm now, can we say they have surrendered? No. What we have now is the peace of the graveyard. The ominous signal is what we see in attack on INEC office in Ogun State. I am not being pessimistic, but more are still coming. They are just sending signals.
“In the Southeast, IPOB leader has been on trial for sometimes now. Because of him, the people have been observing sit-at-home order which has adversely affected the economy of that region. To nip this trend in the bud, government must dialogue with these self-determination groups. If three of the Southwest states and four of Southeast states say there will be no election in 2023, there is no way any president can emerge. It is only when we dialogue with these groups that we can be rest assured that there will be elections,” he argued.
Though opinions defer on the cause and motive behind the current spate of violence, there is a consensus on the need for security operative to step up efforts to contain the trend ahead of the 2023 elections.