From Joseph Inokotong, Abuja
The World Bank has projected a 2.1 per cent real Gross Domestic Product for Nigeria and other Western and Central Africa subregion countries in 2021 and 3.0 percent in 2022.
It pointed out that growth in the subregion contracted by 1.1 percent in 2020, less than projected in October 2020 partly due to a less severe contraction in Nigeria, the subregion’s largest economy, in the second half of the year. The bank explained that Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery would vary across countries.
Nigeria’s economy unexpectedly came out of a recession in the fourth quarter as growth in agriculture and telecommunications offset a sharp drop in oil production.
Gross domestic product grew 0.11 percent in the three months through December from a year earlier, compared with a decline of 3.6 percent in the third quarter, the Abuja-based National Bureau of Statistics said on its website on Thursday. The median estimate of five economists in a Bloomberg survey was for a quarterly decline of 1.86 percent. The economy contracted 1.92 percent for the full year, the most since at least 1991, according to International Monetary Fund data.
However, it said for non-resource-intensive countries, such as Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya, and mining-dependent economies, such as Botswana and Guinea, could see robust growth in 2021, driven by a rebound in private consumption and investment as confidence strengthens and exports increase.
In the Eastern and Southern Africa subregion, growth contraction for 2020 is estimated at -3.0 percent, mostly driven by South Africa and Angola, the subregion’s largest economies.
Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is estimated to have contracted by 2.0 percent in 2020, closer to the lower bound of the forecast in April 2020, and prospects for recovery are strengthening amid actions to contain new waves of the pandemic and speedy vaccine rollouts, according to the World Bank’s biannual economic analysis for the region.
The latest Africa’s Pulse, The Future of Work in Africa: Emerging Trends in Digital Technology Adoption, notes that a slower spread of the virus and lower COVID-19-related mortality, strong agricultural growth and a faster-than expected recovery in commodity prices has helped many African economies weather the economic storm induced by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The report notes that economic recovery hinges on countries deepening reforms that create jobs, encourage investment, and enhance competitiveness.
The resurgence of the pandemic in late 2020 and limited additional fiscal support will pose an uphill task for policymakers as they continue to work toward stronger growth and improved livelihoods for their people.
World Bank Chief Economist for Africa, Albert G. Zeufack, said “African countries have made tremendous investments over the last year to keep their economies afloat and protect the lives and livelihoods of their people.
“Ambitious reforms that support job creation, strengthen equitable growth, protect the vulnerable and contribute to environmental sustainability will be key to bolstering those efforts going forward toward a stronger recovery across the African continent.”