It is often easy to lose perspective in the moment and forget the lessons from the past. A little flashback: Several decades ago, our former national carrier, Nigeria Airways was the preferred airline for many travelers. At the peak of its operations, it had about 30 aircraft in its fleet. Later in the 1990s, things began to go wrong, and fast. The fleet depleted to only two aircraft. It was a combination of gross mismanagement, inefficiency, corruption and greed. Bankruptcy set in. The feeble efforts by the Obasanjo administration to float another national carrier did not work. It was a case study in the perils of partnering in developing market with a foreign airline without addressing the risks first.
That partnership with Virgin Atlantic that gave birth to Virgin Nigeria as our national carrier was a partnership gone awry, as Virgin Atlantic pulled out against the initial high expectations that greeted its coming. Things went from worse to worst when the government sold off the airline which was renamed “Air Nigeria”, to a private investor called Jimoh Ibrahim. Finally, it was liquidated and sold off in bits and pieces. Since then, the government and its officials have never stopped to talk about a new national carrier. Has it learnt the lessons and mistakes that led to the collapse of Nigeria Airways? I doubt.
When risk is hard to talk about, it leads to more risks. The past six years have been rough and painful for Nigerians under the governing All Progressives Congress(APC). Things have gone progressively worse in all sectors of the economy. Widespread insecurity has squeezed everybody to a corner. Resurgent inflation, unemployment, poverty and high cost of living are eating deep like acid. Virtually everything the APC promised when it was asking for our votes it has failed to deliver. It promised ‘Change’, but has delivered calamity. Nigeria is not in the pecking order of investors’ preferred destination. It’s far away in the 14th place on the list, according to the data released last week by Rand Merchant Bank. Everywhere you look, there is mounting frustration.
Regardless of this negative investors’ perception, the APC-led Federal Government is out again with another clever gambit for a new national carrier to be called ‘Nigeria Air’. According to the Minister of Aviation, Hadi Siriki, the proposed national carrier will take off in April, 2022. He said he had to present the idea to the Federal Executive Council(FEC) six times before approval was given. That speaks volumes of the skepticism of the decision-making organ of the government about the venture. It smells fake, contrived and downright unrealistic. But, the Aviation Minister insists, it’s on track. He says the federal government will hold 5 percent equity in the proposed national flag carrier, while other Nigerians and unnamed technical investor will hold 46 and 49 percent ownership stakes, respectively, and that the government “will not be involved in running it or deciding who runs it”. Who the technical investor is, the minister did not say. Do you believe all that Siriki has said? Sounds and smells like all the trickery APC used ahead of the 2015 elections, when it promised, among other things, three million new jobs every year, healthcare for all Nigerians, free education, enhanced security by employing at least an extra 100,000 police personnel, as well as setting up a well-trained and equipped anti-terrorism multi-agency Taskforce to decimate Boko Haram and other forms of insurgency. Two years ago, President Buhari added to the deception, when he announced during his ‘Democracy Day’ speech to lay “ enduring foundation to taking 100 million Nigerians out of mass poverty over the next 10 years”, meaning lifting 10 million Nigerians out of poverty annually. Has the president and his governing party come anywhere near to fulfilling any of these promises?
Five months to the take off of the new national carrier, is there any evidence that it will fly? One is not saying the prospect of a national carrier is not a good idea. Both pride and economics are at stake. What are the processes that will give investor confidence that Nigeria Air is not a scam or the vision of one man that’s not well-thought out? It raises questions: where is the business presence of the proposed national carrier? Where’s the structure, the strategy? Who’s the technical investor? Where’s the office, technical or administrative? What about the hiring? Has anybody heard about that? Has the proposed airline been duly registered with the Corporate Affairs Commission(CAC)? Has it complied with all the guidelines set out by International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO)? How true about the employment claim by the minister, of providing 70,000 jobs? Many questions unanswered.
In all of this, transparency is lacking. Secrecy and half-truth are at play. Watching Siriki talk on the proposed national carrier, you also can see a surfeit of cockiness, and too much assumptions that success is guaranteed. Assumption is the lowest level of knowledge. As Winston Churchill said,”Success is never final, it’s for you to keep earning it over and over again”. Undoubtedly, lessons of why the defunct Nigeria Airways collapsed and other critical government cherished projects failed ought to be lessons learned the hard way and how to mitigate risks in future ventures. The simple management lesson is: if your concerns are serious, don’t delude yourself, walk away.
Aviation experts have warned that the proposed Nigeria Air is not a priority now. Sincerity of purpose is also key. In its absence, the proposed national carrier will end up a mere fictional venture, dead before take off. As pioneer President/Founder/Chairman of Southwest Airlines Company, USA, Herb Kelleher cautioned many years ago, what employees are looking for is sincerity. And you don’t demonstrate sincerity without making something transparent and pragmatic. “It has to come from the heart rather than the head”, he warned. Truly, airline business is like a commodity business. The only thing that differentiates one airline from the competition is the service you provide. If in doubt, ask CEOs of airlines that have succeeded, and those that have failed, whether here or abroad.
Fact is, there are very few things stronger than brand loyalty. If you ask someone why he prefers Ethiopian Airline or British Airways, you are most likely to hear something like: “It’s a good value, they are dependable, I trust them”. But no matter how strong a brand loyalty is, it can be severed, and once that happens, it will be extremely hard to get those customers back. It’s a lesson in management, and for those dreaming of establishing airlines. It’s not a fanciful, walk in a park sort of business.
I also find as most laughable, and insincere the claim that the proposed national carrier will provide about 70,000 job opportunities. The math simply doesn’t add up. Take, for instance, the American Airlines, arguably the biggest in North America has just 102,000 employees. Emirate airline, which is International Aviation Transport Association(IATA) largest airline has only 45,000 staff, while the British Airways which carries over 40 million passengers annually with 280 aircraft in its fleet, has 40,000 employees. As at 2017, Ethiopian airlines had 13,942 staffers. What is the Unique Selling Proposition of the proposed national carrier that will provide 70,000 jobs? In all, the proposed national carrier, as told by the Aviation Minister, is a poorly told story. The timing is wrong. It’s a tale of failure in the making.