By Chukwudi Nweje

Signing of the Peace Accord by political parties and the promise to eschew all forms of violence, whether verbal in the form of hate speeches or physical in the form of violence has been an integral part of the transition election in Nigeria since 2015.

The Peace Accord was an initiative of the National Peace Commission (NPC) co-headed by former Head of State, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar and Catholic Bishop of Sokoto Diocese, His Lordship, Matthew Hassan Kukah and other eminent elder statesmen.

The accord aims to support free, fair, and credible elections as well as intervene in critical issues of national concern through high-level mediated and alternative dispute resolution mechanisms.

The need became imperative in 2012 when Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, the presidential candidate of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in 2011, alleged that he was rigged out of the presidential election of that year, and threatened that “if what happened in 2011 should happen again in 2015, by the grace of God, the dog and the baboon would all be soaked in blood.”

Buhari never elaborated on this statement. But about the same period, a report of a study in the United States (US) predicted that Nigeria could likely collapse after the 2015 elections due to the volatile nature of the country’s politics.

Perhaps it was out of the need to avert the doom prediction and the desire not to sit and watch the dog and the baboon soaked in blood or wait and watch the country collapse that eminent Nigerians under the NPC conceptualised the Peace Accord.

But to the credit of the NPC, the 2015 presidential elections came and went. The dog and the baboon were not soaked in blood, and neither did Nigeria collapse. Also, to the credit of the peace accord, only the result of the 2015 presidential election was not challenged in court since the commencement of the Fourth Republic in 1999.

In fact, President Buhari admitted that the accord signed with Jonathan and other candidates before the election in 2015 contributed to the peaceful outcome of the polls that year.

There are however concerns about whether the 2023 general elections would be as peaceful as that of 2015. The 18 political parties in keeping with the tradition signed the Peace Accord in September but they have not eschewed violence as promised. Across the 36 states of the federation, violence against and between political groups is reported daily. Many analysts  argue that the 2023 elections would be a make or mar poll for Nigeria.

The orgy of violence ahead of the polls has raised concerns that despite the peace pact signed by the 18 political parties that Nigeria could witness a do-or-die political contest next year.

An orgy of violence

Despite the Peace Accord signed by the 18 political parties in late September, the Nigeria Election Violence Tracker, Situation Summary report for the period September 28 to October 24, 2022, show a worrisome situation across the six geopolitical zones of the country.

In the past week alone, several acts of violence were recorded in different parts of the country.

These include but are not limited to the Wednesday, November 9, alleged attack on the motorcade of the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in Maiduguri, Borno State.

Before that, on October 9, gunmen killed a youth leader of the APC in the Igbo-Eze South LGA of Enugu State, while another attack targeted Labour Party members in Igbo-Eze North LGA. In Abakaliki town of neighbouring Ebonyi State, members of Ebubeagu, a Southeast regional security outfit created in April 2021 reportedly shot at the convoy carrying the Labour Party gubernatorial candidate.

Also in October, gunmen attacked Senator Ifeanyi Ubah of the Young Progressives Party in Anambra State. However, it was not established whether the attack on his convoy had any political undertone.

Many offices and facilities of the INEC across the country had been torched by unknown gunmen and hoodlums in the country. The most recent happened on November 10, when hoodlums razed the offices of the INEC in Ogun and Osun states.

INEC’s National Commissioner and Chairman, Information and Voter Education, Festus Okoye, who confirmed the incident said 904 ballot boxes, 29 voting cubicles, 30 megaphones, 57 election bags, 8 electric power generators and 65,699 uncollected Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) were destroyed in the Ogun office while some furniture items were vandalised in Osun.

Some analysts argue that the attacks on the INEC offices in Osun and Ogun are not unconnected with an attempt to handicap the electoral commission ahead of the polls as well as disenfranchise eligible voters.  They observed that the 65,000 burnt PVCs could mean 65,000 fewer votes for a particular candidate assuming without conceding that they would all vote in one direction.

Intolerance of opposition

Another disturbing development after the Peace Accord is the growing intolerance of opposition politics, denial of the opposition access to campaign facilities and venues as well as alleged sponsored attacks on the opposition by the government.

In Lagos State, for instance, the PDP accused the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) of denying the party access to advertising opportunities.

The governorship candidate of the PDP in Lagos, Dr. AbdulAzeez Olajide Adediran told members of the ECOWAS Commission led by Dr. Kwadwo Afari-Gyan, a former Chairman of the Electoral Commission of Ghana, during their visit in October that “Here, in Lagos State, we are in opposing camp. The ruling party controls most of the public spaces, it is difficult for us; they threatened players in the outdoor industry not to fly any of our campaigns. Each time we put up our posters, the government agencies remove them.”

The PDP governorship campaign trail was also attacked in the Badagry area of the state in October, while two Labour Party flag boys were beaten to a pulp at Oshodi on October 2.

In Zamfara State, the police confirmed that one person was killed, while 18 others sustained injuries following a clash between two youth groups in the state.

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In Edo State, the government and the Labour Party traded words last week over the refusal of the PDP-led state government to grant LP permission to use the Samuel Ogbemudia stadium for a rally in the state.

In Rivers State, though the PDP is in power, supporters of Atiku Abubakar cannot campaign openly as they are allegedly being attacked by thugs loyal to Governor Nyesom Wike who is having a running battle with the PDP presidential candidate.

Earlier in the month, one person was reportedly shot when suspected political thugs attacked supporters of Atiku in Eberi in Omuma Local Government Area of the state.

One of those attacks was targeted at the coordinator of the PDP Presidential Campaign Council in Omuma LGA, Nnamdi Nwogu. He had alleged that the attack was ordered by political leaders in the area.

Since May this year when Gov. Nyesom Wike lost the PDP presidential ticket to Atiku Abubakar, he has been allegedly clamping down on supporters of the former vice president in the state.

The Rivers State government has however defended its position and noted that those it moved against plotted with the opposition to tarnish its image and that of Gov. Wike before Nigerians.

The state government had recently revoked the Certificate of Occupancy (C of O) of a property belonging to Senator Lee Maeba, the chairman of the PDP Presidential Campaign Council in the state and close ally of Atiku Abubakar.

In early October, the House of Assembly also passed a motion to derecognise Mr. Celestine Omehia, another Atiku Abubakar ally, as a former governor of the state and ordered that he should refund N96.5million pension received so far and about N600million benefits.

INEC worries

Meanwhile, INEC is worried about the violence in the political space ahead of next year’s election.

INEC Chairman, Mahmood Yakubu, spoke recently at the Training of Master Trainers on Technologies for the 2023 General Election and noted that the clashes among parties and their supporters ahead of the elections are worrisome.

He said, “The cause of clashes among parties and their supporters in some states of the country during electioneering campaigns is worrisome.

“Also, there are denials of access to public facilities for parties and candidates in some states of the federation. Let me caution parties and supporters to focus on issues and stay clear of attacks on each other.”

A Dangerous precedent

Various ethnic and regional based groups, including the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), the Middle Belt Forum (MBF), pan Yoruba Socio-political organisation, Afenifere and pan Igbo socio-cultural organization, Ohanaeze Ndigbo Worldwide all condemned the violent politicking.

National President of MBF, Dr. Bitrus Pogu said, “It is a sorry and unfortunate development. We are supposed to have matured politically and gone beyond that kind of thing.”

On his part, ACF Secretary General, Murtala Aliyu said: “Our position on that is to condemn it in clear terms. The politics of violence is not in our character.

“We condemn it in absolute terms, we call on politicians to rein in their supporters and ensure that we play clean politics.”

Ohanaeze Ndigbo asked the security agencies to brace up and cub the violent incidents.

The National Publicity Secretary, Chief Alex Ogbonnia, said: “Ohanaeze Ndigbo Worldwide condemns and detests violence in whatever form, to whoever it affects and wherever it occurs.

“It is very unfortunate that the presidential campaign convoy of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar was attacked in Maiduguri.  It is very sad that Nigeria has nosedived to this abysmal level where people move about with great fear and trepidations.”

On their part, Afenifere cautioned the Federal Government and the security agencies to ensure civility.

The National Publicity Secretary of the organisation, Mr Jare Ajayi expressed shock and urged the Federal Government to ensure such does not repeat itself.

He said: “Afenifere is shocked to receive the news of the attack. It does not matter whether they are politicians or not, the fact that they are Nigerians, is condemnable and it is something we are not happy about at all.

For Pan Niger Delta Elders Forum, (PANDEF), the political actors must warn their supporters against acts of violence.

National Publicity Secretary of the group, Mr. Ken Robinson, said: “As we approach the 2023 general election that in the interest of national security and the interest of our democracy that people fought hard to secure, lives were lost, and a lot of sacrifices were made, politicians should be able to caution their supporters and call them to order.