By Sunday Ani
With the curtain drawn on the year 2022 and the 2023 election beckons, many are tempted to go down memory lane and bring to light those thrills and tensions that defined the political landscape in Nigeria in the year just ended.
The year 2022 was interesting and filled with political intrigues, alignments and realignments, horse-trading, fights, campaigns of calumny and character assassination, manipulations, deceit, propaganda and mischief among others, for politicians and political parties seeking to wrest or retain power, particularly at the presidential level in Africa’s most populous country.
Party primary: Emergence of Tinubu
Without doubt, the most intriguing political event in 2022 was the primaries of the major political parties and the plots and shenanigans that characterized the emergence of the candidates. Expectedly, the power game in the ruling party almost boiled over before the emergence of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the candidate of the All Progressives Congress(APC). After a fierce battle of power brokers in the party, Tinubu won its presidential ticket contrary to the predictions of many. Ahead of the general elections, Tinubu’s novel terminology, ‘Emi L’okan’ has become unarguably the latest addition to the country’s political lexicon.
Sometime around mid-2022, when the race to clinch the APC’s presidential ticket was becoming so tense and it appeared like the politicians from the North were ganging up to retain the presidency in the North after President Muhammdu’s Buhari’s eight years in office, the former Lagos State Governor, Bola Tinubu, who was among the frontline contenders, alongside the vice president, Professor Yemi Osinbajo and the senate president, Ahmed Lawan, among others, decided to take the bull by the horns by declaring publicly that it was his turn to rule Nigeria after Buhari. He chose to declare his entitlement to the presidency after Buhari using a Yoruba phrase, ‘Emi l’okan’ meaning it is ‘my turn’, probably because the people he was addressing were majorly Yoruba.
Before the Emi l’okan statement was made on June 2, 2022, at the Presidential Lodge in Abeokuta, Ogun State, Tinubu had first said that it was the turn of the Yoruba to produce the next president after Buhari, and when it eventually comes to the South West Yoruba, it would be his personal turn to occupy the number one political seat in Nigeria after Buhari in 2023 because of the sacrifices he has made for the APC and Nigeria.
He was quoted to have said in that gathering: “It is my time. I’m educated and experienced. I have been serving people for a long time. Bring me the presidency, it is my turn.”
Although many political analysts predicted that his outburst in Abeokuta, which they described as unnecessary, could jeopardise his chances of achieving the presidential ambition, which he has said at different occasions was his lifelong ambition, by losing the presidential primary, he went ahead to clinch the ticket. He won his party’s presidential ticket after polling 1,271 votes, to beat his closest rivals, the former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, who polled 316 votes to come second and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, who garnered 235 votes to place third.
Also, his visit to Chatham House, London was one of the highpoints of his activities in the year just ended.
The resurgence of Atiku tendency
For the umpteenth time, the former vice president became an aspirant to beat in the build up to the presidential primary of the main opposition party. He eventually emerged in the keenly contested primary which saw the Rivers State governor, Nyesom Wike giving the Turaki Adamawa the battle of his life.
Since the Rivers State Governor lost the PDP’s presidential primary election to the former vice president, in what many considered as a high wire politics of betrayal, the party has never been the same. In the PDP primary, Atiku polled 371 votes to defeat Wike, who got 237 votes, while the former President of the Senate, Bukola Saraki, scored 70 votes in a primary election that Wike felt betrayed by the Sokoto State Governor, who he considered as a close political ally and friend. Wike felt that Tambuwal’s withdrawal at the eleventh hour and his eventual instruction to his supporters to vote for Atiku was what gave Atiku the winning edge over him (Wike).
Following Atiku’s emergence and the eventual choice of the Delta State Governor, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa, as his running mate over Wike allegedly recommended to Atiku by a committee set up by the party for that purpose, Wike felt it was time for the party’s National Chairman, Iyorchia Ayu, to resign from his position as agreed before the primaries. But, Ayu would not listen to such excuses.
As a fall out to Ayu’s refusal to resign, Wike, alongside four other governors, namely Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State, Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State, Samuel Ortom of Benue State and Ayo Makinde of Oyo State, formed what has come to be known as the G-5 governors; a group that is today pushing for Ayu’s resignation. They are saying that there was an agreement before the primary that if a northerner emerged as the presidential candidate, Ayu who is also a northerner would resign, so that a southerner would occupy the position for there to be a balance in the power sharing within the party.
With the continued refusal of Ayu to step down from his position, coupled with Wike and his group’s insistence on his resignation, a major political battle line was drawn between the two camps; a development political pundits believe would mar the party’s chances of victory at the 2023 presidential election.
Obi’s Third Force
The year 2022 birthed the much elusive Third Force as represented by the Labour Party(LP) and the meteoric emergence of Mr. Peter Obi, culminating to what has become popularly known as the ‘Obidient Movement. To the surprise of many, the LP hitherto unknown has become a major factor and controls the narrative of the 2023 general election. The party has been the subject of attacks by the two main parties, APC and PDP. Many agree that the emergence of Peter Obi as the presidential candidate of the Labour Party and the eventual formation of ‘Obidient Movement,’ coined from his name has changed the country’s political landscape. With Obi’s emergence and his campaign messages, he has set the political firmament on fire with political consciousness among Nigerians of all classes reaching its highest peak.
Obi was a frontline contender to the PDP presidential ticket until sometime in April or early May when he discovered the gang up against him in the party. The alleged gang up against him was what forced him out of the PDP to the LP, where he was welcomed with open arms. Before his entrance into LP, the party was almost moribund with few supporters, but as soon as Obi entered the party and picked its presidential ticket, the equation changed.
Like a wild harmatan fire, his message of hope and a new Nigeria that is transiting from a consumption economy to a production economy sank in the minds of Nigerians and millions of followers emerged cutting across age, gender, religion, region, tribe, ethnicity and profession. Pronto, the large followers christened themselves ‘Obidient,’ thus signaling the birth of Obidient Movement, which today has become a nightmare to the ruling APC and its major opposition PDP.
Analysts believe that Obi has already changed the narrative of national politics, curbed monies at political rallies and he is on the threshold of history. The Obidient Movement has set a new record. Many believe that for the first time in history of Nigeria, the oppressed youths have risen, financed themselves, and are set out to wrest their destiny from a thieving and visionless elite that have disemboweled their aspirations and left them with a broken country without a purpose.
Announcing his resignation from the PDP and withdrawal from the presidential contest in a letter addressed to the PDP National Chairman, Iyorchia Ayu on May 24, Obi attributed his decision to recent developments within the PDP.
Obi and his running mate, Dr. Datti Ahmed have millions of supporters that are engaged in several campaigns both online and offline in their bid to achieve the Obi/Datti presidency in 2023.
Jonathan, Emefiele’s alleged presidential ambitions
The names of the former president, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Godwin Emefiele featured prominently as the chosen candidates to pick the APC’s presidential ticket.
The rumour mill was awash with stories that either Jonathan or Emefiele would be President Buhari’s anointed candidate. The rumour looked so real especially when a Fulani group obtained the APC’s N100m presidential nomination and expression of interest forms for former President Jonathan, and Emefiele also through his lawyer, Mike Ozekhome, applied for an order of status quo ante bellum to be made against the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the Attorney General of the Federation (AGF) so that he would not be made to resign from office until 30 days before the 2023 general election. Emefiele in an ex-parte application had also denied being a political appointee but a public servant not caught by Section 84 (12) of the new Electoral Act 2022.
The CBN governor asked the court to invoke Section 318 of the 1999 Constitution to bar the defendants from asking him to vacate office until 30 days before the February 2023 presidential election.
However, at the end of the day, both Jonathan and Emefiele never contested the APC primaries, so whether they actually had intention to contest as was widely rumoured remains in the realm of conjecture.
2022 Electoral Act
The signing into law of the Electoral Act Amendment Bill 2022 in February by President Buhari, was one of the landmark political revolutions of the year. Apart from barring political appointees from voting or contesting at party congresses as provided in Section 84(12) of the law, the power of the INEC to deploy electronic means like the use of Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) in the conduct of election would equally go a long way to shaping the political landscape in Nigeria.
The Act forced many political appointees to resign so as to contest their party primaries, while others jettisoned their political ambition to remain in office. It has also thrown candidates into a frenzy as the 2023 election approaches because of INEC’s insistence on the use of BVAS.
Ekeweremadu’s travail
The major political events of the year 2022 will not be complete without the mention of the arrest and detention of the former deputy senate president and the senator currently representing the good people of Enugu West Senatorial Zone, Ike Ekweremadu and his wife, Beatrice by the Specialist Crime Team of the Metropolitan Police in London in June. They were arrested for alleged conspiracy to harvest the kidney of a young man who is alleged to be underage for the senator’s daughter who needed an organ transplant.
Ekweremadu and his wife were arrested at Heathrow Airport in London en route Istanbul in Turkey. While his wife has been released, Ekweremadu is currently facing a legal battle in the UK to regain his freedom. If convicted, the lawmaker may get a maximum life sentence or 12 months imprisonment or a fine, or both on summary conviction under the United Kingdom’s Modern Slavery Act 2015. When he appeared in court earlier this month, he was denied bail while the case was adjourned to January 2023. Ekweremadu recently alleged that the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) was behind his travail, while many Nigerians believe that his travail is divine having connived with some people outside the South East to sabotage Peter Obi’s presidential ambition. However, whether Ekweremadu will wriggle out of his current predicament and regain his freedom before the February 2023 presidential election lies in the belly of time.
The Osun governorship election
The second-term dream of former Governor Gboyega Oyetola in Osun State came crashing like a pack of cards when the PDP governorship candidate, Governor of the state, Ademola Adeleke thrashed him in the July 2022 Osun gubernatorial election.
Adeleke, generally regarded as a dancing senator, polled a total of 403,371 votes to thrash Oyetola who polled 375,027 votes in the keenly contested race. In the election held across 3,763 units in the 30 local government areas in Osun, the PDP won 17 of the LGAs, while the APC won in the remaining 13 LGAs.
Analysts believe that the ruling APC led by Oyetola lost the election because INEC deployed BVAS, which ensured that people’s votes counted. In other words, the most popular candidate, in this case, Adeleke, emerged; one of the positive fallouts of the 2022 Electoral Act.
Osinbajo, Amaechi, Onu, Lawan’s dashed presidential hopes
The likes of the Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo, Minister of Transport, Chibuike Amaechi and his counterpart in Science and Technology, Dr. Ogbonnaya Onuh, as well as the Senate President, Ahmed Lawan, all tried their luck to clinch the APC’s presidential ticket but gallantly lost to Tinubu. Many political analysts and opinion leaders believe that the vice president shouldn’t have contested against his erstwhile boss and political godfather.
Although some aspirants stepped down for Tinubu, those who refused to step down, contested and lost, included Amaechi, Osinbajo, Lawan, Senator Rochas Okorocha, Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi, Dr. Onu, Pastor Tunde Bakare and Mr. Tein Jack-Rich.
Also, there were reports that the APC National Chairman, Abdullahi Adamu, allegedly tried to impose Lawan as the ruling party’s consensus candidate, but a quick intervention and an announcement by the Northern APC governors led by Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State put a death knell to that move and cleared the path to Tinubu’s victory. It is also believed in some quarters that Osibanjo, Amaechi, and Lawan’s ambitions might have consigned them to political obinion since the trio is no longer reckoned with in the party’s scheme of things as it campaigns for victory in the 2023 election.
Aregbesola vs Tinubu
The year 2022 also witnessed a surprising friction between the former Governor of Osun State and Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola, and his estranged political leader and boss, Tinubu. Aregbesola had in February accused Tinubu of foisting the immediate past Osun governor, Oyetola, on the people against popular will. He warned that the people have had enough of leaders who equate or elevate themselves to the status of a god, stressing that he trusted Tinubu but was betrayed.
Aregbesola’s rift with his successor, Oyetola, whom he accused of failing to consolidate his eight years achievements in the state, factionalised the APC in the state, with a faction under his firm control. Their fight came to the public glare after the minister opposed the governor’s second-term bid. He said Oyetola should be given the same treatment that former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode was given in Lagos State. At the end of the day, Aregbesola appeared to have won the battle as Oyetola, and by extension Tinubu, eventually lost to the dancing senator, Adeleke of the opposition PDP.
Tinubu’s Chatham House outing
The visit to Chatham House in London by Tinubu and his team was received with mixed feelings and reactions. Tinubu had gone to the world’s leading independent policy institute, whose main mission is to provide commentary on world events and offer solutions to global challenges to discuss the policy documents he plans to execute if he becomes Nigeria’s president. He was expected to interact with them, answer questions from them and convince them about his preparedness and capacity to lead Nigeria after Buhari. However, many Nigerians were not happy that instead of using the opportunity to convince the world of his preparedness, the APC candidate allowed surrogates to interface with the people. He was delegating questions put before him to members of his team; a development that did not go down well with many Nigerians. While a section of the country saw it as a demonstration of his inability and lack of capacity to lead a country like Nigeria, others argued that he was right as according to them, it was a mark of team spirit; a leadership style which Tinubu is allegedly known for.
Yet, there are others who saw the visit to the Chatham House as an insult to the sensibilities of Nigerians, whom they said he has refused to talk to back home but find it convenient to talk to them from a distant land. Tinubu has been accused of refusing to appear in a public debate with other presidential candidates since the campaign took off; a development that has also pitched his campaign organisation with the management of ThisDay Newspapers and Arise Television.
From whatever angle one views the Chatham House outing of the APC presidential candidate; it will go down in history as one of the political moments that defined the 2022 political landscape in Nigeria.
Assassination of LP woman leader in Kaduna
The brutal and savage murder of the LP Woman Leader in Kaura Local Government Area of Kaduna State, Mrs. Victoria Chintex on Monday November 22, 2022, is a clear testimony of how brutal politicians can be. It also showed the level of desperation by those who want the status quo to remain. It cast a gloomy shadow on the level of maturity and tolerance by politicians. Mrs. Chintex, according to a statement by the Kaduna State Publicity Secretary of the LP, was assassinated when the evil gunmen attacked her house.
She was known as a hardworking, industrious and dedicated party leader in the area. She was a grassroots mobiliser whose activities posed a big threat to some politicians. She was allegedly killed to silence the opposition in the state as well as to curtail the rising popularity and acceptance of the LP in Kaduna State. The story of the political events that defined 2022 cannot in any way be told without capturing her brutal death.