The ObiDient Movement appears to be a doomed enterprise if history is anything to go by. I am not talking about the 2023 elections and who will win it. If anything, most people pray that Peter Obi wins because on paper and among the frontrunners, he is the visionary, the most capable, and the one with a record of prudence in governance. So, for these reasons and more, I am most likely to cast a vote for him during the election, hoping that he will win to make my one vote count. Getting this out of the way, let me return to the issue – the health status of the ObiDients a short while from now.
It is certain that the Movement built around the Labour Party candidate will peter out and die immediately after the presidential election of 25 February. It is the possibility of this happening that has become a source for concern. Thinking about this led me to at least two overriding factors that drive the imminent demise of the youthful movement. One is the name of the Movement itself. The other is the helplessness, the sense of déjà vu that marks youthful incursions into the Nigerian political setting. I shall deal with the sense of déjà vu first and use it to highlight why ObiDient is an unfortunate misnomer.
Déjà vu implies that what we know as past episodes appear to be repeating itself. Therefore, one cannot help but feel that in the ObiDient Movement, we are reliving an experience whose outcome is all but predictable. The best way to appreciate this feeling is to go back to the history of youth movements in Nigeria.
The first and most successful youth movement in Nigeria was set up to operate like a political party. Originally conceived in 1933 as the Lagos Youth Movement, it later changed its name to Nigerian Youth Movement in 1937. The youths who formed the movement were pan-Nigerian although from the southern parts. Its goal was to develop a united Nigeria out of the “conglomeration of its people.” This meant promoting “a common understanding and a sense of common nationality among the different elements in the country.” To cut the story short, in the 1938 election to the legislative council, NYM supported candidates successfully displaced the establishment by winning all three Lagos Council seats.
Colonialists and their local collaborators sponsored the establishment candidates worsted during the election. Nevertheless, the independent struggle was also a coalition of establishment outliers. These establishment outliers, including Chief Obafemi Awolowo and Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, subsequently interfered when it was time for NYM to choose a new set of leaders. Zik, an Igbo, supported a Westerner while Awo, a Yoruba, supported an Easterner to lead the Movement. The bad blood generated by this inevitably destroyed the association. In a sense, this was the first major attempt to disrupt a youthful edifice and possibly reconstruct it around an establishment figure. It failed spectacularly.
The second attempted youthful incursion into Nigerian politics occurred in 1946 with the formation of the Zikist Movement. The Zikists were a semi-independent youth body that bought and propagated the political philosophy of Nnamdi Azikiwe and regarded him as their mentor and leader – just the same way that the ObiDients are looking up to Peter Obi for salvation of their country. The Zikists were also very abrasive, bold, and tending towards violence in speech, if not in action. Zik, like Obi today, did all he could at the time to moderate their youthful exuberance, without success. Predictably, the colonial establishment descended on the Movement with arrests, trials, and jail terms handed out indiscriminately to the members. The establishment eventually outlawed the movement.
The first post-colonial youth movement ironically grew out of the army, an establishment institution. A group of young military officers disgusted with how the politicians made a mess of the independence they won decided to make their opinions felt. Again, they wanted a government built around Chief Awolowo, another establishment figure. This effort faltered after the northern political establishment quickly instigated a counterattack that returned the balance of power to their region. Although the countercoup provided a moral victory to the youths who launched it, the effect of the loss was devastating.
Since the July 1966 counterattack, Nigerian youth movements have offered extraordinarily little in terms of defined goals and modus operandi. Until #endSARS, youths confined most of their agitations to universities where they garnished issues of student welfare and education with a dose of diatribe on the country’s economic health. This was why #endSARS was outstandingly significant; it was the first post-military effort by youths to spend time publicly agonizing and angsting over how establishment figures misrule the country.
And now, the ObiDient Movement bursts on the scene. The problem is that the ObiDient Movement is a youth movement without a defined mission. Unike #endSARS, the ObiDient Movement is an impulsive response to an establishment figure whose political rhetoric aligns with the national mood to make Nigeria an achieving nation. So far, the youths have not experienced the expected backlash from the establishment and may never will, for a reason.
The reason ObiDient Movement appears “safe” to the authorities is not because of Peter Obi. Rather, it is safe to say that most establishment persons do not yet reckon with the power and logic of the Movement. Unlike the NYM, the Zikists, and the young officers who struck in January 1966, the ObiDient Movement is riding on emotion but not an idea. They however align in a common goal to take the country away from the establishment and hand it over to someone who they hope will create the environment for everybody to thrive in whatever legitimate occupations they are currently engaged or wants to engage in. They want to banish gratification, immediate and delayed, and the sense of entitlement that it gives birth to.
In the Nigerian political setting, gratification is a dirty word. We know that in its ordinary meaning, gratification is simply a reward for a job well done. However, gratification in Nigerian politics is doing a shoddy job or doing no job at all to receive a reward. The Movement is therefore about creating an environment where individuals thrive on their abilities and skills rather than their connections to establishment figures who dispense political gratification. Keep in mind that two of the three prior youth movements succeeded. The NYM succeeded in taking over Lagos politically. The young officers succeeded in displacing a corrupt government. The Zikists failed because they built their movement around an establishment figure, as the ObiDients have done. #EndSARS failed because youths built their movement on emotions and youthful impulse, not on the idea of taking over the country themselves.
The youths must find their way to a drawing board where they will think strategically on how to govern Nigeria more effectively. The 2023 elections, no matter its outcome, is not the vehicle.
The three frontrunners in the current presidential race are Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Governor Peter Obi, and Governor Bola Tinubu. It is certain that two of the three will lose in next month’s election. Of the three, Peter Obi is the only one who will win even if he loses. His win represents a moral victory. If it turns out that Peter Obi is one of the two on the wayside, his loss will be a moral victory not to the youths but to Ndigbo. The psychological damage to the youths will be devastating. Therefore, the only way that the Nigerian youths win is to ensure that Obi is not one of the two. This is why it is unfortunate that, like the Zikists, they build their movement around a personality rather than an idea. The temporarily successful NYM in 1938 and the young military officers in January 1966 had a better idea.
Another consequence of this decision to build a movement around a personality is the confusion it has introduced in many states where credible non-Labour candidates are swimming against the tide. In many of these states, the most credible candidates currently fight losing battles against opportunistic Labour Party and establishment “PDAPC” candidates. In this confusion, who will be surprised that a befuddled electorate will simply vote loyalty, thereby leaving Nigeria to experience a reprieve before the agonizing and handwringing continues?