All Progressives Congress (APC) chieftain and Director-General, Voice of Nigeria (VON), Chief Osita Okechukwu has predicted that the 2023 presidential election might witness a runoff between the APC and the Labour Party.
Speaking with VINCENT KALU, Okechukwu said the APC had enough issues to campaign with, especially in the development of critical infrastructure like rails, roads and dams, among others, executed by the Muhammadu Buhari administration. He also assured the Northern Christians that Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the APC presidential candidate would will be fair and just to them.
Ahead of 2023 elections, the presidential campaigns have started. What are your expectations?
To be candid, the 2023 presidential election is a unique one, remarkably different from all the Fourth Republic’s presidential elections – 1999, 2007, 2011 and 2015. We had expected a two-horserace like the aforementioned. However all indices and credible variables posit a possible run off between two top contenders out of the first four.
In your ratings, who are the four and who are the possible top two?
As is of public knowledge, the first four out of 18 registered political parties are my great and ruling party the APC, then PDP, LP and NNPP. As of the top two, it is yet not as clear as pundits are polling. For the presidential election is like a beauty contest. In a beauty contest, you cannot just look round the spectators stand and halt the contest, because you sited a more beautiful chic. Accordingly, we are constrained to elect one out of the four, no addition and no subtraction for now. The incontrovertible evidence is that there are many indicators like ancient ethno-religious cards, party affiliation, and the palpable insecurity in the land and parlous economy, which will guide the almighty voters. No pundit albeit, will also neglect the Vote-Rigging-Vaccine (VRV).
What is Vote-Rigging-Vaccine (VRV) and which crucial role will it play in the runoff you posted?
The Vote-Rigging-Vaccine (VRV) is the 2022 Electoral Act, one of the most famous legacies of President Muhammadu Buhari’s regime. Yes, the smart card reader was pioneered by former President Goodluck Jonathan’s regime, but was consolidated by Buhari, who engraved it into the law books.
Where electronic applications like Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and Automated Biometric Verification are at play, where Section 47 made the polling unit the most important point in the election chain. The truism is that the VRV is the change agent, which renewed the trust of Nigerians, especially the youths in our electoral process. That’s why I call on the Obedient Movement to thank President Buhari immensely for the renewal of trust on the Nigerian project; especially after the APC lost Edo, Anambra and Osun states, off season elections, without deploying federal might or do or die unholy tactics of the PDP in the 2003 and 2007 presidential elections. VRV is a blessing in disguise and the main reason why some polls are posting favourable results for Peter Obi. Without VRV it could have been the usual two-horse race, and LP and NNPP won’t be in the picture. VRV has empowered the electorate and returned sovereignty to the people.
What’s your take on the position of some pundits that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar will win in the first ballot because the north will vote massively for him, contrary to your position for a run-off?
One has tremendous respect for Atiku Abubakar; he was close to my mentor, Rt.Hon. Chuba Okadigbo of blessed memory and is close to my big brother, Dubem Onyia. Therefore, I’m always reluctant to discuss the hype over his chances in this crucial election mounted by my friends Senator Dino Meleya and Daniel Bwala.
A lot of us do not know that Tinubu and Atiku came from the same late Shehu Musa Yaradua’s political family. Each knows each other’s strategy and they are both strategists. They will share the core northern votes. Yes, Atiku is Fulani Muslim north. However, as far as northern political elites are concerned, he has never aligned with the north, so I don’t know what gives pundits the impression that the northerners are in one dormitory and will be railroaded to the polling booth to vote for only Atiku. The northern voters are the most sophisticated; one understudied them during the Buhari’s campaign.
What do you mean that he never aligned with the north?
I mean that every political party has its strongholds, and the north is not that of the PDP. In the same vein, every political actor has cult following located somewhere. That Atiku has more or less lost the base of his party, which is the South East and South-South, is not in doubt, no matter how sweet the spin. Secondly, going down memory lane when he joined politics in the late eighties, unlike Buhari, he didn’t identify with his fellow northern political elites. He went to the Patriotic Front, whilst the north floated ANC. And when the former President Ibrahim Babangida decreed two political parties, he joined SDP, and the northerners mostly joined NRC. The same scenario played out in 1999, the northern elites formed the defunct APP, and Atiku joined PDP. Therefore, it will not be so easy for him to align seamlessly, especially when his bosom friend, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso is in the race. My permutation is that he may not be in the runoff, especially without Wike and his battalion.
This permutation is against every pundit or polling report. Please expatiate
I have been in partisan politics for the last 44 years. I joined PRP in 1978, before defecting to the NPP and I studied political science. With my experience, I know for instance that the electorate is not mostly friendly with one who breached subsisting convention or law; the law that engenders peace, unity and progress. Atiku deliberately breached the Constitution of the PDP and the inclusive rotation convention of the last 22 years. It is not only a moral issue, but also a violent breach of his party’s constitution and the Federal Character principle which he enjoyed in 2018 at Port Harcourt. If care is not taken, he is mostly going to be punished by patriots and democrats of both north and south with their votes. With such breach, Tinubu and Obi will most likely harvest from his malfeasance.
Many will still disagree with your analysis, especially when you neglected that he has a big war chest, and that those running for offices in those states where you rate him low might even work for him.
Electoral studies maintain that all the membership of all the registered political parties, I’m talking of participating members, not those who register in case party card is needed, are not up to 40 per cent of the registered voters. In the electoral distribution graph are those called independents in America, most of whom in case of Nigeria, may have heard from Atiku quarters that his initial plan was to support Obi and he reneged. According to this credible source of information, he threw his hat in the ring when information reached him that His Excellency Nyesom Wike was warming up. My brother, is this a cogent reason to manipulate, mangle and deliberately breach the constitution of your party and that of our dear country? Some had asked why didn’t Atiku mobilise his enormous war chest for Obi, that it could have achieved same result. These are his minuses why he may not be in the runoff.
How will Tinubu benefit from what you called Atiku’s malfeasance when APC is still unsettled over the composition of its campaign council, and the party is always in disagreement with itself?
My candid opinion is that Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Obi are beneficiaries of the rotation convention, which Atiku is not. For instance, is it possible that the APC Northern Governors Forum that on June 4, 2022, post our presidential primary election, proclaimed publicly in a statement that in the interest of corporate existence of our country, national loyalty and integration, that a southerner will succeed President Buhari. “We therefore wish to strongly recommend to President Muhammadu Buhari that the search for a successor as the APC’s presidential candidate be limited to our compatriots from the southern states.” The Northern Governors Forum, unlike Atiku, fulfilled their promise by voting for Asiwaju.
Do you think some issues, like the composition of the presidential campaign council, have not watered down this proclamation?
I don’t think so, because the presidential campaign council is more symbolic than substantial. It is not your membership of the council that counts in the fullness of time, but the votes, which emanate from your polling unit that count more. And we all cannot be members of the campaign council for God’s sake.
Don’t you subscribe that blood is thicker than water, that the Fulani among them will align with Atiku because he’s their kinsmen?
There is no doubt that some elements will fall for ethno-religious cards. However, I was the chairman Ward, LGA, State Congresses of Kebbi State and from my experience, it will be difficult, if not impossible, for the folks of both parties to unite at the polls. The good news is that if there is no unity at the polls, it means automatically that there will be free, fair and transparent elections.
Don’t you think an emir or any influencer might call a meeting, which would engender a consensus to rig in favour of a Northern candidate?
I’m not given to insinuations, but real politicks, where I know that those leaders of my great party have more confidence that they will benefit more if Asiwaju wins and same with PDP or LP.
Already there is mudslinging among spokesmen and supporters of various candidates. What should be the campaign issues?
Electioneering is dubbed the festival of democracy and like in any festival there are the bad, the good and the ugly. This does not mean I support it. All I am saying is that it’s unavoidable in our clime.
Don’t you think the position of some Northern APC Christians over the Muslim-Muslim ticket will affect the party’s outing in the election?
I have my empathy for Northern Christians, and I am concerned when issue of marginalisation comes up. On Tinubu’s choice of running mate, he was between the devil and the deep blue sea. That’s a fact, just like any Northern Christian who in future will be hamstrung when he is elected as Christian presidential candidate. He will be compelled to choose a Christian southerner.
So how will Tinubu handle the fears of the Christians in the North over this same-faith ticket?
Methinks he will be fair, just and inclusive. That’s the only quick solution to heal the painful wound.
In 2015, Tinubu was quoted to have said that he gave Osinbajo his right to be running mate because a Muslim-Muslim ticket will destabilize Nigeria. What has changed that he opted for the same faith ticket or swallowed his words?
To be honest, I did not read or heard about it. All I know is that Tinubu, along with Atiku, Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi, Bukola Saraki – G-5 and others contributed immensely to the critical alliance which guaranteed our victory in 2015. Buhari already had a vote bank of 12 million votes, which we maximally utilised in the 2003, 2007, 2011 under the defunct ANPP and CPC.
What will the APC be campaigning with? Many Nigerians are believed to be passing through untold hardship. More so, almost all the promises the APC made in 2015 are unfulfilled – security, economy and the fight against corruption.
Asiwaju has to advance the beacons of the solid foundations President Buhari had already laid, which include the continuation of critical infrastructural development – roads, rails, dams and social infrastructure- education and health. It is painful that a lot of people forget about the N1.9 trillion that Buhari raised to pay salaries and pensions owed by state governors for between three and 27 months, and the infrastructural deficit we met on the ground and how we started akin to from the scratch. Do we also forget the Buhari’s agrarian revolution, one of the components parts of which is the Anchor Borrowers Programme (ABP) and the Green Imperative Project (GIP)? The GIP was the €995 million meant to mechanise our agriculture via all manner of farm implements from ranches to crop farming. All were geared towards lifting the peasant farmers to large-scale farmers and large-scale farmers to production commercial farmers.