By Ismail Omipidan
Governor Rauf Aregbesola of Osun State is no doubt faced with what could be regarded as the “battle of his life”, the outcome of which may make or mar him politically as he prepares to leave the stage.
He came in 2010 through a court verdict after three years of legal battle to reclaim his mandate. By 2011, he faced what could pass for a real contest test for the first time. Though he was not a candidate, he proved that he was indeed in charge, as he ensured that the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) Presidential candidate, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu won in Osun, the only state in South West won by the party during the 2011 presidential contest. He also ensured that virtually all the legislative seats at both state and national levels were won by his party.
How about his performance? “Put the resources available to him side-by-side with resources available to other state governors, especially in the South West, you cannot but give the man a pass mark. Look at the schools he is building, how many do we have in Ogun (State)? Look at the roads too. I think the man has tried,” a chieftain of All Progressives Congress (APC) and a former journalist from Ogun State told Daily Sun.
Perhaps, Aregbesola’s performance may have been responsible for his re-election in 2014 in spite of the fact that he went into that election owing workers arrears of salaries. He polled 394,684 votes, and winning in 22 of the 30 councils. His closest challenger, Senator Iyiola Omisore of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) polled 292,747 votes, winning in just eight councils.
Following his victory in 2014, however, Daily Sun gathered that he appeared to have introduced some level of arrogance into the governance and politics. This, many believed might be responsible for the humiliating defeat his party and his anointed candidate suffered in the hands of the crisis-ridden PDP at the time, during the Osun West Senatorial by-election last July.
Although, politically, nothing for now around him is indicative of the fact that he has learnt any lesson from that devastating defeat, there is, however, efforts by his government to appease some sections of the state, particularly Iwo, where the party suffered a surprising defeat in the election. So far, three schools were demolished to give way for a gigantic model school that has since become a reference point.
Embargo on political activities
Daily Sun also reliably gathered that, recently , the governor summoned all his cabinet members and told them pointedly that they must not use any political activity to distract him as he intends to work assiduously for the state between now and March next year, when he hopes to complete most of his ongoing projects. And that by March or early April, politicking could commence, ahead of the party’s primary likely to hold in June of same year.
Interestingly, the governor’s directive is only binding on his aides and cabinet members, as persons outside his government but who are APC members have since declared their governorship ambition and have been engaging in activities to raise awareness concerning their aspiration. Prominent among this group are the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yusuf Sulaimon Lasun and Kunle Rsheed Adegoke (aka K-Rad), a lawyer and human rights activist.
If information available to Daily Sun is anything to go by, Lasun, Adegoke and many others like them may just be wasting their time. Except they seek the ticket of a different party, nothing on ground show that they will come near the APC’s governorship ticket.
At the meeting, Aregbesola was said to have impressed it on his cabinet members that between March and September when the election would hold, he would also be concentrating on delivering “stomach infrastructure” to the people, since “that is one area they have been complaining about.” But whether that will redeem the APC at the polls in September next year is left to be seen.
Regardless, barring any eleventh minute change, Daily Sun can authoritatively reveal that Aregbesola and the stakeholders in the state, especially within the APC have just two choices: Alhaji Moshood Adeoti, Secretary to the State Government (SSG) and Alhaji Hammed Adegboyega Oyetola, Chief of Staff (CoS) to the governor.
How they stand
Like in every state of the country, Osun too is politically divided into three senatorial districts: Osun West, Central and East. Its first civilian governor, late Senator Isiaka Adeleke, who spent about two years in office, hailed from Ede, in Osun West. Next was Chief Bisi Akande, from Ila Orangun in Osun Central. He spent four years, but lost his re-election in 2003 to Brigadier-General Olagunsoye Oyinlola (rtd) from Odo-Otin council, also in Osun Central. Oyinlola spent seven years.
Cumulatively, Osun Central alone has had 11 years governing the state. Aregbesola is from Ilesa council. By the end of his tenure, Osun East where he comes from would also have had eight uninterrupted years governing the state. Therefore, if the zoning sentiment in the state is anything to go by, Osun West should ordinarily be the next senatorial district to produce Aregbesola’s successor.
Adeoti is from Iwo, in Osun West, the zoning sentiment favours him. But all his life he has never worked anywhere. He is what is called in the local parlance as a “professional politician.”
Though a grassroots man, he could not dispense any political patronage even as SSG, sources close to him told Daily Sun, adding that from day one, Aregbesola and his supporters made deliberate effort to “strangulate him politically.”
“You remember that man who Adeleke attended his function before his death? He is called Amobi. He used to be very close to the SSG. But he noticed that while he had a chummy relationship with the SSG all the contracts he bided for were never awarded to him. However, once he defected to Adeleke’s side, they embraced him and even made him a senatorial leader.
“As an Iwo person, he never had a say in the appointment of Oluwo, he was denied opportunity to empower his people. They reasoned that since he has control of the party, empowering him financially would be counterproductive to the political interest of the governor and his people. The SSG’s case became worse following the appointment of a commissioner in charge of cabinet affairs. By this, all files that ordinarily should be treated by the SSG are now being handled by the commissioner.
“The next thing they are doing now is to sponsor people from Iwo, who cannot even win their bedroom for governorship, so as to reduce his chances of emerging and to give the impression that Iwo is not united in its quest for governorship,” another of the sources added.
Asked if Adeoti would defect if he loses the party’s ticket, another source from his camp said: “He is a party man to the core. He is a progressive true and true. We are confident we will emerge, but in case something else happens, he will abide by whatever the party decides.”
Oyetola, the CoS is from Iragbiji, Boripe council in Osun Central. Because he is from the central, a zone that held the position for 11 years, the zoning sentiment in the state does not favour him. He appears to be Aregbesola’s choice, not necessarily because he is a cousin to the national leader of APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, but because the 63-year-old administrator has “given a good account of himself over the years.”
A source close to him said: “The governor has not made up his mind on anybody. But the consensus is that he is the most suitable to succeed him. The politics of zoning, however, does not favour him. He is a silent operator. He is not your loud type of politician. But he is a man of immense means.
“Each time the idea of governorship is broached with him, he will tell you ‘what the people want is paramount. It is God who gives power. I will not be party to anything that will cause problem for the people. Let’s leave everything in the hands of Allah.’ So that is the man for you. And all he wants is that a level playing ground be provided for them to contest.”
Aregbesola holds the ace
Daily Sun’s investigations revealed that the governor appears to have given other political leaders in the APC a technical knockout by ensuring that 98 percent of the councilors who will be elected in January next year, did not come through any of them. All these councilors are automatic delegates, so whoever “owns” them will carry the day at the governorship primary.
Confronted with this fact, a source close to the governor said: “Well, you are right. But that is if the party is loyal to him till the end. What will happen if the party betrays him? Your guess is as good as mine.”
The source debunked all the claims from the SSG’s camp: “The governor is not betraying any emotion on either the SSG or CoS. If there is anything that is working against the SSG today, it is the loss the party suffered in Iwo in July during the by-election. Some of our people believed that Iwo was given to Adeleke so they could get their support in return during the governorship. The fact is that the SSG is not as strong as he used to. His popularity and acceptance appear to be over exaggerated.”
An aide to Adeoti countered: “I wouldn’t want to agree, APC faithful voted Adeleke because they did not like the process that threw up Mudashiru Hussein. But the SSG won his ward and his polling booth in that election.”
Last line
If Aregbesola behaves the way he did before, during and after the primary that threw up his anointed candidate for the Osun west by-election, he probably would get same treatment at the polls. But if he decides to drop his toga of arrogance and approach the issue with some humility and respect for party faithful, APC, depending on whom PDP fields may eventually coast to victory. But all said and done, the ball is in Aregbesola’s court.